electric vehicles

Admittedly, better batteries would be great - but it really doesn't matter if they're highly efficient and don't drain when not in use. You still have to pay a lot for the juice that goes into them.

If we had dramatically better battery technology (i.e. not just incremental improvements of existing technology) - to where the timing and location of energy needs need not have any significant relation to the timing and location of electricity generation (primary energy conversion) - then we could realize significantly reduced energy costs. For one thing, large-scale, centralized, electricity production can be a less costly means of powering personal vehicles than having to use small-scale, fossil fuel burning engines that are in each one. For another thing, some forms of electricity generation are significantly cheaper than others. For another, post-generation transmission and distribution represents a significant portion of the realized cost of electricity. It currently costs something like 3 or 4 cents to produce a kWh of electricity from coal, something like 2 cents from nuclear, and even less from hydro. What does that kWh cost a distributer like Smeco? More importantly, what does it cost by the time they get it to a residential or commercial consumer? Currently, I believe it's something like 13 cents.

Putting aside the consideration of generation costs and considering market dynamics instead: Electricity would be cheaper, on the whole, if it behaved more like a national (or even global) commodity rather than just a local commodity.
 

Larry Gude

Strung Out
I wouldn't - but I suppose you'd have to more precisely describe what expenses you mean to refer to in order for me to give a more (or should it bet better?) considered answer. For one thin, dealing with waste material is something that has to be done - it's a real expense, not an imagined, unnecessary, or PR-driven one. More generally, our defense in depth principles/guidelines are important when it comes to safety. To the extent I am aware of and understand them, I'm content with the lengths we go to to make our nuclear power industry as safe as is practical. But, we shouldn't pretend it's not an inherently dangerous thing we're doing. In other words, I wouldn't want us to do significantly less - I wouldn't want us to become less rigorous. But even if we did to some small degree, there would still be real costs to operating nuclear plants (not to mention the carried capital investments costs) and even fueling them represents considerable costs (though far less than fueling fossil fuel plants).

There may be some waste in appeasing the ignorance of some of those opposed to nuclear plans (I certainly don't mean to suggest that all opposition to such plans is ignorant), but I don't think that the measures we take and the lengths we go to to make our nuclear power industry safe amount largely to atomic political correctness. I think they are quite necessary. The acceptable probability standards that our regulators work within are demanding, no doubt. But, considering the potential consequences, I think they are more or less reasonable. We aren't willing to accept a real risk of Chernobyl happening here, and as it is I don't believe we accept anything close, but we have to (and do) work very hard to make sure that we don't - and that sometimes translates into real and legitimate costs for the nuclear industry. I can feel confident that defense in depth will work - I'm not sure I could say the same about defense in well-we-make-some-effort-at-least.

Well, I can't offer a thing to counter that because it is a very well expressed and reasoned out argument...other than my intuition that IF nuke could be done just as safely and effectively as it is today and at significantly lower costs than coal generated electricity, then, as a simple political, big picture issue, it would not be allowed to.

:shrug:
 

SamSpade

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
Electricity would be cheaper, on the whole, if it behaved more like a national (or even global) commodity rather than just a local commodity.

I don't understand. I thought that's what generally made electricity MORE expensive - the fact that it's distributed such that the way it is generated has little bearing on what the consumer pays.

Wouldn't our electric be cheaper if all of it came from Calvert Cliffs?
 
I don't understand. I thought that's what generally made electricity MORE expensive - the fact that it's distributed such that the way it is generated has little bearing on what the consumer pays.

Wouldn't our electric be cheaper if all of it came from Calvert Cliffs?

That's my point - it's not to the specific generation costs of the plants in a particular area, but that the electricity generated acts as a local commodity rather than a global one, with less regard to the cost of the (local, as the case may be) generation. Simplifying the model (as, in reality, the grid is no where near this simple): If everyone in a given area can only get their electricity from one generation source, and the demand from that area is greater than the generation capability of that one source, the price of electricity in that area is going to climb even if that source is able to generate whatever it does generate at a fairly low cost. The local (and limited) nature of the commodity market makes the actual generation costs less important with regard to the commodity's price. The reality that you might be able to build a dam on the Ganges River and generate electricity, at relatively low cost, wouldn't really help drive down the commodity's price in the hypothetical area - it wouldn't be adding effective supply to that area (unless it was proximate enough to the dam and its generation capability).

If electricity acted like a global commodity rather than a local one, that would mean that there wouldn't be local supply/demand issues (which can't necessarily be addressed in a timely manner) - only global ones.

If all electricity generation was fungible - if when, where, and how some source in particular produced it had no bearing whatsoever on what it was paid for it - then producers would, all other things being equal, seek to produce it as cheaply as they could, to the extent doing so is plausible (e.g. they might devote resources to developing hydro generation capability rather than coal, or natural gas, generation capability, or, finding that it's easier to get approval to build a nuke plant in an unpopulated, geographically less-consequential area, than it would be to build one in a particular area where extra supply was actually needed, they may choose to do that rather than building a new coal-fired plant).

Production would tend to move toward (and centralize around) where it was cheapest to produce it. The price would find the level it needed to in order to make sufficient global production profitable. One effect would be that plants would run nearer full generation capacity for a greater portion of the time than they do now - there'd be less capital investment cost, and less fixed operational cost, relative to output. As it is, we have to have excess generation capability, and spend extra resources on fixed (i.e. non-marginal) costs, so that we have the ability to generate what is needed (where it is needed) during peak usage times. We can't store the production to be used when and where needed. Coal plants could be built where coal is abundant, nat gas plants where nat gas is abundant, wind farms (to the extent they make any sense) where wind is abundant, nuke plants where the regulators could care less about the potential for a Chernobyl incident (I keed, I keed) - all without regard to where the electricity is needed.

That all goes to lowering production costs overall, not to the effects that market dynamics may have in determining prices. The thing is though, so long as there is no foreseeable concern regarding the global market's ability to produce whatever supply might be needed going forward (which, with global electricity production, unlike with oil, there shouldn't be), the market driven price for a very fungible commodity can't diverge too far from the actual cost of producing that commodity (at least, the cost of producing the last portion of it needed to meet demand). If existing productive capacity is driven solely by individual producers' choices (which are themselves driven by anticipatable compensation) acting in a global market (rather than being constrained, as to the number and variety of participants, by the existence of mostly local markets), there's too much incentive for individual and varied producers to increase the overall productive capacity when the anticipated compensation starts to diverge from the would-be actual production costs. We can already make electricity for, on average, 4 cents a kWh, whereas it costs consumers, on average, more like 12 or 13 cents delivered. If it were readily transportable and store-able, we could produce it cheaper and we could definitely deliver it cheaper. Making it so (i.e. readily transportable and store-able) is a battery problem.
 

SamSpade

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
Then you need something else entirely - a means to cheaply distribute electrical energy without loss, because I can tell you that if my energy comes from the Grand Coulee dam and not Calvert Cliffs, it costs a lot more for it to get here - because there's loss. You can run oil through a pipeline for hundreds of miles, and what comes out the other end is still oil. Same goes for natural gas. Electricity however gets lost along the way in the form of heat. It does actually make sense for electricity to be used where it's made.
 
Then you need something else entirely - a means to cheaply distribute electrical energy without loss, because I can tell you that if my energy comes from the Grand Coulee dam and not Calvert Cliffs, it costs a lot more for it to get here - because there's loss. You can run oil through a pipeline for hundreds of miles, and what comes out the other end is still oil. Same goes for natural gas. Electricity however gets lost along the way in the form of heat. It does actually make sense for electricity to be used where it's made.

That's part of what I'm referring to - better battery technology. We currently spend a significant amount of money/resources building and maintaining our electricity distribution networks / grids. Generating electricity (i.e. converting various forms of naturally stored energy, or various forms of naturally existing energy, into electricity - a form of energy that we have adapted to, and can readily, make use of), in and of itself, can be fairly inexpensive. If and when we develop batteries that can store large amounts of (electrical) energy (in comparatively small packages), discharge it at high rates when necessary, and store it for long periods of time with comparatively little loss, then our various uses of energy will be much less costly (and carbon emission friendly, if we decide after all that that matters). I'm talking about producing electricity wherever and whenever it is most easy and economical to do so, and transporting it to where and when it is needed in the form of batteries.

We aren't there yet - but we will be at some point reasonably soon I believe - assuming that we don't find it is easier and more economical to go much the other way (i.e. developing better energy conversion methods - smaller, more portable, and more efficient machines that can convert stored energy into a form that is readily usable or readily make use of energy in the the various forms it already exists in).
 

SamSpade

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
I'm talking about producing electricity wherever and whenever it is most easy and economical to do so, and transporting it to where and when it is needed in the form of batteries.

Somehow I don't see us powering the city of Baltimore by charging batteries at Calvert Cliffs and shipping them up Rte 301. The loss we're getting is in power lines - making better, more efficient transmission addresses this.

I do see battery technology as being vital to the development of a lot of electricity, but there may be more useful alternatives. For example, I think I was listening to Gingrich talk about nuclear plants churning away producing power at a constant demand and during periods of lower use - at night - they could use the electricity to say, process hydrogen as fuel.

One of the challenges as I understand it to efficiently providing electric power when you're using something like coal is, you don't want to be making electricity at full speed when the demand is down, so you have to constantly adjust - otherwise, it's just lost as heat. With nuclear, you don't have to adjust at all - you can go at a set production and just redirect what you have left to making a transportable bit of fuel.
 
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