Freaked Out Investors

migtig

aka Mrs. Giant
I say BUY BUY BUY BUY :jameo:

Gold Investors Exit Amid Price Collapse - ABC News

Excerpt:
The biggest story on global financial markets today is the collapse of gold and silver prices. Gold is down more than $90 an ounce since Friday – a fall of about 7 percent. The price drop comes on top of last week’s 4.7 percent tumble. Silver prices tumbled 8 percent, or $24 an ounce. Copper is also falling.
 
We could talk all day about investing in gold, there are so many things to be considered and so many dynamics in play. It could be a great investment going forward or a horrible one, but I think a lot of investors that are in it (retail ones, at least) are probably in it for unsound reasons. I've invested in gold before (e.g. through the SPDR GLD fund or gold miners), I'm not panning it as an 'investment'. I'm actually fairly neutral on it right now and have been for a while (i.e., I don't have a strong sense for which direction it is going to head and, that being the case, am more interested in other things for which I might have a stronger sense). But you have to have a gambler's heart to invest in gold (at least, you should if you are). It's highly speculative. And the speculation is with regard to what people will be thinking 3 days or 3 months or 3 years from now more so than any anticipated fundamentals. There's not much underlying gold's value (there are some industrial uses and there's the public's love of gold for things like jewelry, but those intrinsic values aren't what have been driving gold prices for the most part). It's all about perception and what people want to believe, and such things can be fickle. That makes gold quite momentum-dependent and highly unpredictable.

At the right price, I'd probably take another gamble on it. But then again, in my Atlantic City days, I would often play roulette instead of blackjack even though I understood well why the former was a worse proposition than the latter. It was about the randomness of it, the lack of influence over the outcome and lack of reason-based decision making opportunities (e.g. as to why I might bet on black rather than red). It was about being a gambler at heart and enjoying the sensation of risk for the sensation of risk's sake, not because the risk was judged to be a sound one.
 

tommyjo

New Member
Gold is a fear trade and an inflation trade. It serves almost no other purpose.

If the US economy continues to strengthen and the dollar continues to strengthen (even just as a result of the winding down of QE), gold prices will likely continue to fall over time.

Gold is a horrible long term investment.
 

Gilligan

#*! boat!
PREMO Member
I'm still in a hold position with all the brass and lead I've invested in, hoping to switch to "buy" soon. Don't want to move over to gold or silver.
 

Hessian

Well-Known Member
This is a test...

Man I hate to be Mr gloom here, but,....I suspect this is a trigger that might pop the Market balloon.

OR this is a play that Goldman-Sachs (et al) have been trying to trigger. They make their $$ from govt/social panic, and the wreckage that follows: Vultures.

So, what Mines & Investment firms are "too big to fail?"
 
This is something people should be aware of when considering whether or not to be invested in gold - at least, 'paper gold'. Even at $1,400, the initial margin requirement for Comex Gold futures is just a bit over 4% ($5,940 per 100 ounces). The maintenance requirement is less than 4% ($5,400 per 100 ounces). That means that someone can put up $40,000 and 'own' $1 million worth of gold. With margins that low, it doesn't take as much money to have as much impact on the market prices. And that matters even more with something like gold where: (1) so much of the buying and selling is for investment purposes rather than for use - acquisition and production hedging; and (2) there aren't important underlying fundamentals that would be fairly effective in imposing upper and lower bounds on prices. And quite important here, it is the futures markets (e.g. with Gold Comex) that drive gold prices, not the physical buying and selling of it - not some technical spot market. The former is where all the volume is.

If you're fully margined with regard to your Gold Comex investment (e.g. you only have about $50,000 of your own money in your account but you control $1 million worth of gold contracts), then a price decline of just 5% completely wipes you out. You haven't lost 5% of your money, you've lost all of it. The lower the margins, the more small price movements can force margin selling. That's almost surely part of what we're seeing today. People are being forced to sell their gold positions whether they want to or not because, with the price declines from last week, they don't have enough money in their accounts to cover their positions and they can't raise enough money (or don't want to) quick enough to cover those positions. Significant price drops can perpetuate themselves.

I think Gold Comex, e.g., needs higher margin requirements - maybe 10 or 15%. But that would mean a lot less money in gold, less contracts traded, and less money made by the CME, which sets the margin requirements. The low margins we have now contribute to the volatility of gold prices.
 
I'm still in a hold position with all the brass and lead I've invested in, hoping to switch to "buy" soon. Don't want to move over to gold or silver.

Ha! I've posted about it before, but do you recall what John Chisum (John Wayne) said to the Mexican bandits in the movie Chisum?

They had stolen his horses and when he caught up with them and confronted them about it they offered to sell the horses back to him. "Do you have any gold with you?" (I'm paraphrasing, don't recall the exact words), they asked. Chisum: "Nope." "Any silver?" they asked. Chisum: "Just lead."
 

itsbob

I bowl overhand
This is something people should be aware of when considering whether or not to be invested in gold - at least, 'paper gold'. Even at $1,400, the initial margin requirement for Comex Gold futures is just a bit over 4% ($5,940 per 100 ounces). The maintenance requirement is less than 4% ($5,400 per 100 ounces). That means that someone can put up $40,000 and 'own' $1 million worth of gold. With margins that low, it doesn't take as much money to have as much impact on the market prices. And that matters even more with something like gold where: (1) so much of the buying and selling is for investment purposes rather than for use - acquisition and production hedging; and (2) there aren't important underlying fundamentals that would be fairly effective in imposing upper and lower bounds on prices. And quite important here, it is the futures markets (e.g. with Gold Comex) that drive gold prices, not the physical buying and selling of it - not some technical spot market. The former is where all the volume is.

If you're fully margined with regard to your Gold Comex investment (e.g. you only have about $50,000 of your own money in your account but you control $1 million worth of gold contracts), then a price decline of just 5% completely wipes you out. You haven't lost 5% of your money, you've lost all of it. The lower the margins, the more small price movements can force margin selling. That's almost surely part of what we're seeing today. People are being forced to sell their gold positions whether they want to or not because, with the price declines from last week, they don't have enough money in their accounts to cover their positions and they can't raise enough money (or don't want to) quick enough to cover those positions. Significant price drops can perpetuate themselves.

I think Gold Comex, e.g., needs higher margin requirements - maybe 10 or 15%. But that would mean a lot less money in gold, less contracts traded, and less money made by the CME, which sets the margin requirements. The low margins we have now contribute to the volatility of gold prices.

Thank you..

I never understood how margin trading, or buying worked, and saw it mentioned before online and thought it was a scheme..

I think you've explained it in a way I can understand, and although not a scheme an easy way to lose a lot of money.
 

abcxyz

New Member
I love gold!!!

The USA can become the next Cypress but they won't find my gold. No death tax on gold. No liberal can tell you that you have too much gold like they can say about your IRA! 50 years ago 50oz of gold could get you a new Cadillac, same holds true today. I can think of a few hundred other reasons to buy gold, real gold in your hand gold, physical gold.

Please do not take my advice as I would love to see it keep dropping so I can add a more mason jars to the nest egg!
 

h3mech

Active Member
I say BUY BUY BUY BUY :jameo:

Gold Investors Exit Amid Price Collapse - ABC News

Excerpt:
The biggest story on global financial markets today is the collapse of gold and silver prices. Gold is down more than $90 an ounce since Friday – a fall of about 7 percent. The price drop comes on top of last week’s 4.7 percent tumble. Silver prices tumbled 8 percent, or $24 an ounce. Copper is also falling.

sounds like what happen in the 80s silver went to $50 an ounce to about 12 thats when i bought silver, gold will come down too you just have to wait
 

Gilligan

#*! boat!
PREMO Member
Gold and Silver for the collapse ... more silver than gold ...

I've never been able to get comfortable with the idea that gold has a useful and deeply intrinsic premanent real value when SHTF or TEOTWAWKI comes around. What use would it serve? Compared to medicines, food, clothing, fuels,...things like that. In what would become essentially a barter economy, where does gold fit in?

Serious question; not denigrating anyone for buying precious metals and I know many do. My own grandfather (owned an electroplating business started by his father) made a killing on gold speculation many years ago. But that's just it...he sold it and converted to dollars.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
What use would it serve? Compared to medicines, food, clothing, fuels,...things like that. In what would become essentially a barter economy, where does gold fit in?

a common exchange medium - instead of direct barter ... your labor is worth 3 gold coins or something more subjective like a 'meal'

what exactly defines a meal ... 1 silver get you a piece of fatty pork, some beans ...

or a gold gets you a slab of prime rib, whole baked potato, and fresh greens

both are meals ... if someone tells you a meal is 1 silver are you going to expect Prime Rib

.... I think .22 cartridges will make a nice small medium for a while, but you can shoot those up ....

I'll trade you this can of Budweiser for that 5 gal of Gas ... it is even cold -0 fresh from the creek ....
 
Last edited:

Gilligan

#*! boat!
PREMO Member
a common exchange medium - instead of direct barter ...

I suppose. I guess there has always been some sort of "currency" around forever..even beads and "wampum". I guess its a mindset; I can't see myself relinquishing scarce/valuable resources that I currently possessed in exchange for something not equally valuable to me; something only potentially functionally valuable in some chance future transaction.
 
Top