Fun with Numbers!

[FromTexas]

You know how the unemployment rate was one of the key arguments of Democrats during the beginning of Bush's term? We couldn't hear enough about job creation, etc....

Just a small comparison for unemployment rates:

CLINTON BUSH
1993 6.9 * 4.7 2001
1994 6.1 * 5.8 2002
1995 5.6 * 6 2003
1996 5.4 * 5.5 2004
1997 4.9 * 4.9 2005
1998 4.5 * 4.7 2006
1999 4.2 * NA 2007
2000 4 * NA 2008

Obviously we don't have a 2006 annualized rate yet but we saw the news today and the rate shouldn't really increase over the year. However, I think it provides a pretty accurate representation of the two terms. Remember that Bush's policies were going to kill the economy but only a very short lived hitch and it was greatly improving. A short lived hitch from a recession that began before he even took office.

On top of that I would like to remind everyone of Kerry's promise to create 10 million jobs by 2008 and that Bush wouldn't be able to deliver that. In fact, he stated Bush would make it worse. Bush has 4 million new jobs racked up during his presidency and the economy is gaining momentum.

 

[Larry Gude]

Thank you...

...one more set of inconvenient facts to go with my IWR for people to ignore.

 

[FromTexas]

...one more set of inconvenient facts to go with my IWR for people to ignore.

Another interesting note - the African American unemployment rate fell to 8.9%. This is its lowest level since 2001. Apparently Katrina is not the "chocolate" assault it is made out to be. Silly facts getting in the way of the mass hysteria of the left.

 

[Larry Gude]

What next?

You gonna prove that year by year deficit numbers as % of GDP are better than Bubbas' as well?

 

[FromTexas]

You gonna prove that year by year deficit numbers as % of GDP are better than Bubbas' as well?

It does make me wonder what else we can prove with lovely data. If Sam shows I am sure we can pique his interest, too. We need to come up with some ideas.

I know we can do well with teen pregnancy and crime. I would have to find the best statistics. I believe FBI for crime and don't know about teen pregnancy. I would prefer government standardized statistics because they typically have not have methodology changed over time. That would especially hold true for crime since different criminal statistics use different definitions for some crimes.

 

[FromTexas]

You gonna prove that year by year deficit numbers as % of GDP are better than Bubbas' as well?

In 1945, the federal debt of $260 billion equaled 117.5% of GDP

You can find historical GDP data on page 182 of the document I linked to above, incidentally, and the federal debt data starting on page 116. It's worth looking it - because, for all the hand-wringing about the federal debt these days, it's clear from the data that the debt is not anywhere close to a record.

In 1992, GDP was $6.218 trillion. That year's deficit was 4.7% of GDP. The accumulated debt of $4.001 trillion was 64.4% of GDP.

In 2002, GDP was $10,336.6 trillion. That year's deficit was 1.5% of GDP. The accumulated debt of $6.198 trillion was 60.0% of GDP.

In 1981, the federal debt stood at 32.5 percent of GDP. It grew to 36.3 percent during the Reagan years - and continued growing right through the first Bush administration and into the Clinton years, reaching 67.3 percent in 1996 before starting to decline. It dropped to 57.6 percent in 2001. It rose in 2002 and the federal debt - though larger in real-dollar terms than ever before in history, stood at 60.0 percent of GDP.

Ironically, the federal debt today is almost as large as the national economy was just 12 years ago. Specifically, the nation's $6.198 trillion debt in 2002 is about the same as the entire size of the national economy in 1992 - $6.218 trillion. But the economy has grown much larged since 1992 - GDP reached $10.33 trillion in 2002. The result- although the debt grew more than 50 percent - it was $4 trillion in 1992 - the debt shrank from 64.4 percent to 60.0 percent of GDP. Sure, the debt is growing. Yes, deficits are in general worse than balanced budgets. But the nation's ability to finance debt - i.e. the economy - is growing, too.

So... back to the question of the 2004 deficit projection. Just how big would the 2004 deficit - projected to be $477 billion - actually have to be in order to be accurately considered a record for the modern era? Well, it would have to be at least 30.3% of GDP.

The Congressional Budget Office's most recent forecast predicts 2004 GDP of $11.629 trillion. The projected $477 billion deficit will amount to 4.1 percent of GDP.

In 1943, the deficit was 30 percent of GDP. If Bush proposes a budget that has a deficit of $3.525 trillion - not likely - you could legitimately claim he is proposing a "record" deficit. Somehow, I don't think he's going to propose a budget with a $3.525 trillion deficit.

Not mine, but does that work for you? We could crunch numbers through this document here and prove all of it.

 

[FromTexas]

Oh, I forgot to add the question. This is the 1,000 pointer. Those numbers above carry through 2004. Anyone want to hazard some input as to what 2005 is estimated to come in at? Here is a hint: It started the year off as being estimated at 3.5%. Since then, they had a surge in revenues that diminished the expected deficit. Yet, we are still hearing about record deficits!

 

[vraiblonde]

I have to ask a question because I've never understood this:

How does a President "create" job?

Does he, like hire people or something?

 

[K_Jo]

You know how the unemployment rate was one of the key arguments of Democrats during the beginning of Bush's term? We couldn't hear enough about job creation, etc....

Just a small comparison for unemployment rates:

CLINTON BUSH
1993 6.9 * 4.7 2001
1994 6.1 * 5.8 2002
1995 5.6 * 6 2003
1996 5.4 * 5.5 2004
1997 4.9 * 4.9 2005
1998 4.5 * 4.7 2006
1999 4.2 * NA 2007
2000 4 * NA 2008

Obviously we don't have a 2006 annualized rate yet but we saw the news today and the rate shouldn't really increase over the year. However, I think it provides a pretty accurate representation of the two terms. Remember that Bush's policies were going to kill the economy but only a very short lived hitch and it was greatly improving. A short lived hitch from a recession that began before he even took office.

On top of that I would like to remind everyone of Kerry's promise to create 10 million jobs by 2008 and that Bush wouldn't be able to deliver that. In fact, he stated Bush would make it worse. Bush has 4 million new jobs racked up during his presidency and the economy is gaining momentum.

Did you factor in how Bush made that hurricane happen?

 

[FromTexas]

I have to ask a question because I've never understood this:

How does a President "create" job?

Does he, like hire people or something?

Nowhere have I said Bush created jobs. That would be what Kerry said he would do. In fact, executive power has very minimilastic impact on the economy.

 

[FromTexas]

Did you factor in how Bush made that hurricane happen?

That is classified.

 

[vraiblonde]

Nowhere have I said Bush created jobs.

I didn't say you DID say that

But the CNN dudes always says the President "lost" jobs and "created" jobs, so I was just curious how that works.

 

[K_Jo]

I didn't say you DID say that

But the CNN dudes always says the President "lost" jobs and "created" jobs, so I was just curious how that works.

That's also classified.

 

[kwillia]

The secret to life = 42.

 

[K_Jo]

The secret to life = 42.

Is that a country song?

 

[bcp]

Is that a country song?

no, thats the age that you have to either stop trusting your farts, or buy a better washer.

 

[FromTexas]

I also discovered that the key to happiness is an enzyme made up of 23% Kwillia, 37% K_Jo, and 40% lesbian sex.

 

[Kyle]

I also discovered that the key to happiness is an enzyme made up of 23% Kwillia, 37% K_Jo, and 40% lesbian sex.

They have that at GNC?

 

[K_Jo]

I also discovered that the key to happiness is an enzyme made up of 23% Kwillia, 37% K_Jo, and 40% lesbian sex.

You dirty bird.

 

[FromTexas]

They have that at GNC?

Yes. You have to ask the lady who works there for K_Jo's and Kwillia's Lesbian Sex Pills. If she looks at you funny, just give her the special secret signal; act like you are juggling big boobs.