I don't think I can agree with you on that ST, mainly because I think the election dynamic has changed in a way that a lot of people overlook. I think the most important four years of the last few decades were the years of the first George Bush presidency. Not because Bush did much that was significant, but because it was the transitional time between the "old" way of looking at elections from a national level, to the current way of a "what's in it for me?" level. Reagan started changing the dynamic when he asked "are you better off now than you were four years ago?", and it's been snowballing up to the Clinton era. People quit voting based on what was best for the country as the determining factor, and started voting for what was best for themselves. I think that this shift, more than anything else, has led to the "division" of our country.
Keeping all that in mind, Clinton made excellent use of the new dynamic to win election in 1992, and to a lesser extent in 1996. Gore did a pretty poor job of showing "what's in it for me" to anyone living outside a major city or south Florida, and he lost. Kerry did a better job of campaigning outside of the cities, but the problem was that when he could communicate a vision of something, his vision wasn't shared by enough voters, so he lost.
What are the Republicans campaigning on? Tax cuts, national security, education, tax reform, SS reform, toughness on crime, banning gay marriage, etc. What do the Dems have to campaign on? They've already gone on record as saying SS is fine. Aside from global warming there's no real environmental issues they can campaign on, especially since most people can recognize the fact that new technologies are still a long way off. Gun control is a dog, they can't champion gay marriage without appearing to be "too gay", and Hillarycare defined their approach to socialized medicine.
As long as the 2008 Republican candidate sticks to her conservative guns, she has a great shot of beating any Democrat who sticks to theirs. Now, if the Dem tries to shift to the right for purposes of the election, I'm betting that the new media will be able to get the truth out aka the Swift Boat vets.