Housing Price Trends

[ByeBye]

Okay,

    I admit, "affordable" is an opinion.  I just recently posted on the "affordable housing" in southern maryland, however, I feel that "affordable" connotes too many other issues.  I gathered that everyone who has read that thread may agree.  I'm looking for feedback regarding these issues and feel free to respond.

1)  Housing price trends here seem to outpace other areas and not compete with others still.  If this trend continues, will Southern Maryland become another Southern California with increased commutes as people move into virgin territory for less expensive / more secluded housing?

2)  What does this imply for a future of Southern Maryland, traffic patterns, tax base, infrastructure development?

3)  Will market corrections be strong enough to hamper this trend?  Will they be strong enough to create a downturn in the local housing market?  Nobody would want to see PAXRVR close, but as former upstate NY native, I've seen the impact of base closures and reductions on the local economies.  Ultimately, if there is a rash of selling, who would want to see their 150K house worth 100K in 10 yrs?  How can SOMD protect itself from this?

Your thoughts.

Regards to all.

 

[mgorfain]

bye bye

To address your comments, prices here have only recently gone thru the roof just in the last year or so depending on what county as well as what area in the county you live.  Twelve years ago when I moved to Calvert I was paying $900 to rent a 3 bedroom 2 bath rambler on a crawl space.  Back then, that rental price floored me, but we all need a place to live.

Twelve years ago, we were having a peak in the real estate market because Calvert Cliffs was ordered by the NRC to hire more people.  After that time prices on homes were pretty stable until the last year or two.

I don't know how long you've lived here, but if you've been here 3+ years you know what I am saying.  I was in Connecticut when they had their market correction...thank goodness I didn't own a home there then.  Being a former military wife, I saw lots of our friends take a beating on real estate.

I am a real estate agent here and I think there will be a market correction here eventually.  It always happens, we just don't know when.  Personally I don't see it happening anytime too soon, because listing inventory is waaay down (20-30% less than a year ago).  Once supply increases prices will stabilize.  If supply stays down then prices will continue to climb.  I know sellers are happy about this, it is very tough on buyers and agents who have buyers who do not want to be house poor.  I've been there and done that in the past...miserable way to live.  Still rentals are virtually non-existant right now too, so believe it or not buying resale is still the best "value".

As far as  southern MD protecting itself from a possible downtrend in values, I don't think it is an immediate concern.  In the long run, the only way to assure the market won't bottom out it to keep what industry we have here or to entice other major employers to bring their businesses to this area. Persoanlly, I don't see the Calvert county representatives doing this.  They want to retain our country "feel" (or so they claim...but if I comment on that, I'd be opening a huge can of worms).  

 

[DarbyOhara]

Well, another thing I have witnessed alot since my house hunting days started around here in Oct 2000....  of course we know that the naval base increased... so did contractors and other large firms.... so people came down here and bought homes WAY above their true market value.... they sit on the market... these people can not drop their price because of their mortgage!  There is plenty on the market right now... it's just the inventory is Bloated with price.... if it's below 100K... it's probably trash and realtors don't have time for you....  I sat and scolded a crew of realtors about bloated house value few months ago... because they are brainwashed with this Bloated market value... they all sat there quiet.... yeah, they thought I was the lunatic....  believe me, I don't deal with realtors around here if possible...  I can name names and company's... and FACTS!  but I won't go there...  When john doe wants to sell a house... it's up to that realtor to be honest... Quit Bloating prices!  GET the tax record sellers and LOOK at the assessed value... if it sums up (land and home) to be 100K... don't put your little trash home on the market for 250K!!!!!  

my 2 cents....

 

[DarbyOhara]

Barbara,  thanks for your input and your point is well taken... however, I don't need to PAY someone with a certificate hanging on their wall to know this home is NOT worth 250K.....  Look up SM4135285 or if you can cut/paste... here's a URL:

http://www.homesdatabase.com/joannemattingly/cgi-bin/aa.fcgi?+Z289c2hvdyZtbHM9MTI2MTc4MiZybj0xJnQ9MCZucHA9OA==

 

[Ken King]

Darby,

What you have with that ad is a $70,000 home on $180,000 property.  One acre on Jutland Creek is very desirable hence the high price.  Not that that property should be that high but several years ago all waterfront property sky-rocketed around here and it damn near wiped out many older folk on fixed incomes because how their property taxes changed.

 

[DarbyOhara]

And that makes it ok?????????

What we have here is a Bloated price tag on 1 bedroom/1 bath/ 1 ac. home...  Let's see... last I checked... I don't have 250K to throw away for a little 1 bedroom cabin.... so I could park my boat!  Creek, river, bay or ocean... it is NOT worth it!  as many houses on todays market around here!

 

[Ken King]

Darby,

I didn't say it was okay, matter of fact I said, "Not that that property should be that high...".    Pissing and moaning about it ain't going to solve your problem.  And for this problem I really don't see a solution.  If this area isn't your cup of tea, move to an area that has what you want.

 

[DarbyOhara]

Thanks for that explanation Barbara... and I do understand that waterfront has a higher price... but personally, I have to reiterate, 250K is alot for what I see you get.  You can drill it to the ground that assessment is 137K and it's worth more than that.... but I have a hard time with market value down here.  I have lived in northern virginia, central PA, indianapolis, cleveland and many other place while in the military... I believe the prices are bloated because the influcuation (.sp) of the naval base.

and ken, I am not doing what you accused... I am voicing my opinion and I think many agree with me after reading all the posts on here.  And I am not here because I want to be here... my employer moved me here.. so we all have to live with that!    Perhaps there are solutions.... but they will come in time.....  

 

[mgorfain]

might as well add 2 more cents of my own

I am a real estate agent as you all know.  I agree with the comment about agents need to be honest.  Lets face it...if the agent & the seller want a sale lying about the correct price won't get the home sold.  It will give the agent a listing and the seller the heartache of having to go thru the hassel of selling, but the WRONG price does no one any good.  I am honest with sellers about correct pricing, because naturally I want my listings sold.  The secret is telling the truth to sellers and I have to tell you, many times sellers do not want to hear what I have to say.  Frankly a listing that doesn't sell costs me about $1000 per listing.  I am a business woman and don't believe in wasting my  time my sellers time or money.  That is why I don't take as many listings as other agents.  I need to verify the seller is serious and reasonable.  If they insist on overpricing a home, in my opinion it is best to turn the listing down.  Also, my job is to make sure my seller is getting a fair price for their home.  I am not doing my job if I advise the seller to underprice their home.  The seller deserves a fair price, as does the buyer.  If everyone is honest and realistic ESPECIALLY the agent, this can be a rather simply process.  Unfortunately, people tend to let their emotions get in the way.

Sellers emotions get in the way because they usually attach a higher than realistic value to their homes because they are emotionally attached to the home.  Buyers emotions get in the way because they are preparing to spend their hard earned money on a home & don't want to get ripped off.  Agents emotions get in the way, many times because they want to make the seller happy by agreeing with a price they know is too high (heaven forbid if they get the seller "mad" at them) or because the agent feels despirate because they "need" a deal or a listing.

All of these emotions cloud rational judgement.  Determining fair market value is not rocket science...look at recent comparable sales prices(not other active listings) see if any closing help was paid, and you have approximate market value.  Assessed values however are not reflective of fair market values.  I've sold properties for much higher and much lower than assessed value, it really depends on supply and demand.  If you have 100 3 bedroom 2 bath homes listed and only 2 such buyers a month for such homes...prices drop.  Likewise, if you have 10 4 bedroom 3 bath homes in a highly desired school district and 20 buyers competiting to buy those homes, prices increase.

I also strongly feel that "bloated" prices are NOT ok.  They are unfair to all persons involved, buyer, seller and agent.  It takes real courage to tell someone who thinks their property is worth $200,000 that their home is really only worth $175,000.  But really, if a seller is serious about selling, doesn't he deserve the truth?

 

[mgorfain]

darby

just looked up your link on homes data base.  I'd say that is a perfect example of an agent "needing" a listing.  IMHO it is priced too high considering a 3 bedroom 2 bath  waterfront home with 2000 finsihed sq feet on 3 acres 1 mile from solomons just sold 2 months ago for $289,000.

 

[ByeBye]

Barbra,

    I spent the last ten years in Buffalo, cheap housing, AND neighbors, AND grocery stores, AND cheap living in general, AND bike to work, AND a few major employers, etc.  Not as many jobs up there as down here, but how many jobs do you need?  I think one is generally sufficient.  AND the plus side is everywhere is generally twenty minutes away.  No traffic, no one to two hour commutes.  No choked expressways, the occassional blizzard, but then there's sledding, skiing, etc etc.
    Fortunately, employment may finally be coming through for me in Buffalo, so I can move back.  I'm really just down here to be with my wife.  I'll be able to support a family on my one income.  Imagine that, the old fashioned american dream.  Because I'll have plenty of cash left over after I buy my 2000+ sq ft of luxury for 60K with an income of 40K+.  Older houses up there, but real quality builds, lots of hardwoods, nice layouts, porches/decks, stained glass, tall ceilings, etc.  Not this drywall/chipboard McMansion crap for 190K.   Perhaps with my left over cash I'll visit SOMD someday.  But by then, it'll probably be just one big suburb.
    Really, for everyone who likes it here, great, I hope you still feel that way.  For those of you who are stuck here for work and don't really like it, my heart goes out to you.  I hope an opportunity comes through that will assist in your relocation to a realistically priced, reasonable lifestyle somewhere else.  Hey, there's always Buffalo!

Regards to all.

 

[Christy]

I have the Ken King view, if you don't like the area then find another that you do.  I don't intend that to be rude at all.  I've lived all over the world and have found Southern MD the place I wanna be.  I like it, I thought I got a sh!t hot deal on my house, and I'm sure someone from Georgia or South Carolina would say I got ripped off, yet someone from California would think I got a steal.  It's all about what is right for you.  I love Southern MD, yeah Olde Towne Alexandria is nice for a weekend or whatever, but not where I'd want to live, same with the little bitty towns in West Virginia.  We own two houses up there, and could go live quite comfortably on minimum wage up there, but it isn't where I want to be.  I'll pay the higher price (or the lower depending on where you're from) to be just where I'm at.  

 

[DarbyOhara]

Well Christy... know what they say about opinions... lol  I am jokin, relax... but you own your dream home here and you own 2 properties in W.VA... and perhaps a few others elsewhere... Sorry, but I MUST put you in a certain category.. you don't belong in this conversation because your "opinion" is biased and you're gonna be like some others with a brain-washed, bloated-type of market value....  Let me guess... you scrapped and strained to buy that dream home.... ha!

mgorfain, thanks for the nice post and I believe that you have walked down the very same path as many have in this area.  I am rather surprised that you got into the reality field, since you "see the light" about the market in this area.  With your principles and standards, I am also surprised that you haven't been so-called "beat up" by these other tarnished agents and realty companies... Hold your ground.  That house I posted was just an example of the many that I have seen bloated around here.

 

[Dalmationlady]

well.. I must speak again.. I may be a backwoods girl from Southern Georgia but I have traveled and have read many ads about homes and compared pricing in other states and areas.. and even in another country.. (due to the fact that my ex-husband and I were looking at transfers within his line of work) but from what I've seen.. most places have housing that is affordable to most people no matter what kind of income you made.. If you made minimum wage .. there was housing affordable for you.. If you made a great salary .. again there was housing affordable.. From what I've seen here .. there is not much housing at all affordable to someone who makes between $7.00 - $14.00 an hour and that includes being able to rent and God forbid you have kids to raise on top of that ... People don't always have a choice of where they must live unless you want to give up that good paying job.. Here's what I've found out... I moved here doing the same type of work as I was doing down South and the pay is not any more than what I made down there.. so if housing, groceries, and clothing is going to cost more here because of the bloated increase in the cost of living then employers should be able to pay a higher salary.. they're reaping in more income with their higher pricing.. and I'm not talking about Government employers or Military incomes .. I'm talking about your regular old secretarial workers or McDonald's workers.... At least in southern Georgia I knew I could make a reasonable salary and still have a nice home .... I don't see that happening here...

 

[DarbyOhara]

Well stated DalmatianLady!!!!

Let's see... "southern maryland"... most properties don't have public septic, don't have public water, has a board of commisioners who cast their wands based on THEIR needs (I know this cause my last realtor was one of the appeals board member for SMC), has a TV cable company who should have been fired long ago, NO malls or quality shopping (gotta drive an hour away or more to get any of that), a telephone company that laughs at you cause they over charge, etc etc... I am stating all this because the area doesn't fit the ticket for high priced homes.  I am not bashing the area and like it here, I am stating facts that the "home market" should be commensurate with other areas of the same measurable standard. I am not Dan Rather on the evening news down here looking for that 500K home along the bay... I am here trying to find a nice home that I can afford without going in debt to fix up, so it would be marketable 1 to 5 years down the road.....  plus, I don't want to commute 80 miles north like many of my co-workers have been doing for years...

I am not whinning, but just expressing my thoughts and opinion (and some facts). No, writing in this forum isn't gonna change any of that, but I have a hard time with people on their illusioned market value. Course, I am sure, the many that "live with it" aren't in the market of buying.......

As DalmatianLady said... some don't have a choice where they live based on the employer... I been with the federal govt since I was 17 and I am 44 now... I have lived in the dirtiest, lowest places... and I lived in very quality places... but the market was always proportionate with the area.....

I'll relax now and let this thread die off, cause I said what I think and feel... and perhaps some will think about it and even possibly take another look.....

 

[Frank]

This is going to be very hard to write ---

I think people are confusing the issue here. There's a mixing of a micro look at it - the one that says "well why don't you move" or "why don't you improve yourself to afford a better home" - and the larger, macro view that asks "how come there isn't more affordable housing?". The confusion is where they overlap - "why can't YOU afford more affordable housing?". But that wasn't the question asked.

The thing is, any city or town - for it to thrive - there has to exist different - how shall I say - strata? - of salaries, work, employment, if you will. You can't all be CEO's or lawyers or brain surgeons. You CAN, kind of - but it's not a working town. What you'd have is a residential neighborhood. For a city to work, it has to have this spread.

Now - *individuals* - individuals can improve their situation. And they do. People advance their careers, move up and others take their place. But if you examine the demographics of any town, AS A WHOLE, you'll find that the breakdown doesn't change a lot over time. *People* change - the town itself doesn't change MUCH. At least, not so much as the economic ladder is concerned.

A town does need to create regions for affordable housing. If it doesn't - among other things - what you end up with, is bloated costs all over the place. Every buy a cup of coffee or a sandwich in a major metropolitan "gentrified" area? It costs a fortune. I'm not saying that rising housing costs causes this, but it contributes.

The discussion has turned more towards, hey, I got mine, go pull yourself up by your bootstraps and get your own. And honestly - comparisons of this area to places like central PA don't help much (where my house would cost half of what it is here). What I am saying is, the cycle will snap back - there will be a correction. A town can't work this way.

And lastly - my own observations. I liked that salary calculator thing. But I made a lot of comparisons to Lexington Park, and not just rural America, or parts of the south, and southwest. I made a lot of them everywhere. Quite honestly - Lexington Park is higher than average. If at some point, it gets higher than, say, San Francisco - well, damn, it better be more worth living HERE than in California. I don't mind it being more expensive than say, East Bumblef*ck in Guam, but damn, it's higher than Baltimore.

 

[vraiblonde]

Darby sez

Sorry, but I MUST put you in a certain category.. you don't belong in this conversation because your "opinion" is biased and you're gonna be like some others with a brain-washed, bloated-type of market value....  Let me guess... you scrapped and strained to buy that dream home.... ha!

I'm screaming with laughter and anticipating Christy's response to that.  It makes perfect sense to me that Darby would put Christy in a "certain category" because that seems to be his/her MO.  But, Darby, you're trying to paint a picture that not only doesn't exist, but that you know nothing about.  Christy, tell Darby about how you and Steve have always lived in rarified luxury and had Mumsy and Poppy give you your homes and Porsches.  

I'd be curious to know if Darby and all would feel the same way if they were property owners.  The idea of selling your home is to get the most you can out of it.  No seller in their right mind says, "OK - my home is valued at $300,000 and I could get that in today's market BUT I think I'll be charitable and let it go for $60,000 so some minimum wage person can have a nice place to live."  Or some landlord who  says, "Gee, my rentals are filled at $1,000 a pop but I think I'll only rent them for $400."

The simple fact is that if the houses are selling at higher prices, why should anyone go lower?

 

[DarbyOhara]

I'm screaming with laughter and anticipating Christy's response to that.  It makes perfect sense to me that Darby would put Christy in a "certain category" because that seems to be his/her MO.  But, Darby, you're trying to paint a picture that not only doesn't exist, but that you know nothing about.

My MO?    Sounds like some NYC talk.... and I know nothing about what?

Christy, tell Darby about how you and Steve have always lived in rarified luxury and had Mumsy and Poppy give you your homes and Porsches.  

First name basis.. hmmm  and lurkering around online forums... for????  Yep, I am painting a picture here!  :dosman:

I'd be curious to know if Darby and all would feel the same way if

Darby and all?  Oh!  you mean the many people that see how true the area is bloated with disillusioned market values......EVEN some honest realtors!

they were property owners.  The idea of selling your home is to get the most you can out of it.  No seller in their right mind says, "OK - my home is valued at $300,000 and I could get that in today's market BUT I think I'll be charitable and let it go for $60,000 so some minimum wage person can have a nice place to live."  Or some landlord who  says, "Gee, my rentals are filled at $1,000 a pop but I think I'll only rent them for $400."

No, I am not saying sell it below it's "REAL" value... Perhaps you are missing the whole point here...  We are talking about bloated market value, not being ridiculous!

The simple fact is that if the houses are selling at higher prices, why should anyone go lower?

Again, we are talking about the area's property market value of what's available today (and within the last few years).

and again.... I am painting another picture.....   :guitar:   and did I mention I am painting a picture.  Betcha you 'first-named-basis" ones on here are the same one at Solomon's island that....  Oh my!  I am painting another picture here... :guitar:   Did I mention I am pretty darn good guitar player too... heehee

Think I'll stick to renting for now...  I wouldn't want to corrupt the area with my real market values....  hand=have a nice day  

 

[vraiblonde]

Darby, dude, I have no idea what you're talking about in most of that post.  Sorry if you object to my "first-naming" you but it's an accepted practice in these forums to shorten a long member name with an established poster (which you now are).

There is no such thing as "real" value - there is only "perceived" value and "market" value, both of which are subjective.  I actually agree with you that housing prices in Southern Maryland are pretty high and there is little in the way of low- priced housing.  I also agree that there is almost no way for a $20K household to live in a nice home around here.  But that's the way it is - there was an influx of people moving into the area, which drove up housing demand and, consequently, drove up the price of housing.  Good for sellers, bad for buyers.  Just the way it works.

 

[Christy]

Darby, how I would absolutely love to be in that "certain category" that you've painted for me.  As for the two homes I have in WV....  One is a two bedroom coal company built house that was  my Grandmothers, and the other is the house I grew up in that my father paid all of $2000 for when I was born, but both homes are worth more in memories than all the cash in the world could pay for.  I don't imagine they'd be worth much to anyone else.  (Except maybe for all the ski bunnies wanting a house close to the slopes).I paid $200K for the house I live in now, and it's the house I've always wanted.  Now if that makes me the Bill Gates of Southern MD, then yee hah!  WV girl done good!

(Edited by Christy at 12:39 pm on April 4, 2002)