Housing Price Trends

[DarbyOhara]

blonde, dudette.....  

Darby, dude, I have no idea what you're talking about in most of that post.

Well... I suppose I was trying to humour myself.... I had to read it a few more times and it had me screaming with laughter....  

Sorry if you object to my "first-naming" you but it's an accepted practice in these forums to shorten a long member name with an established poster (which you now are).

Call me darby or whatever... just don't call me late for supper!!!  lol  just had to add that one.....

There is no such thing as "real" value - there is only "perceived" value and "market" value, both of which are subjective.  I actually agree

oh but you are wrong blonde!  In most communities throughout the eastern US of A... and most appraisers would agree that a "real" value is:

(1) the market value of the property; or
(2) the sum of:
 (A) 10 percent of the appraised value of the property for the last year in which the property was appraised for taxation times the number of years since the property was last appraised;
 (B) the appraised value of the property for the last year in which the property was appraised; and
 (C) the market value of all new improvements to the property.

You see, a 1 bedroom/1 bath cottage plopped on a 1 ac. "creek" water front area that is listed at 250K is BLOATED... That's what the discussion has been, in case you forgot.....

there is little in the way of low- priced housing.  I also agree that there is almost no way for a $20K household to live in a nice home around

*NEWS FLASH* Blonde.... there are LOTS of people around here (SOMD) that have decent jobs that only average not much more than 20K!  Guess you want to shove them into a slum lot and let them suffer and say, that's just the way it is (not meaning you personally, but the whole community)... while also the sellers and/or developers AND realtors ex-communicate those people from the market and you all wonder why crime is rising in SOMD?

But that's the way it is - there was an influx of people moving into the area, which drove up housing demand and, consequently, drove up the price of housing.  Good for sellers, bad for buyers.  Just the way it works.

That is certainly understandable... but again, look up above to the "real" value factor.... So, all the SOMD people seen us coming!  Bloat that price and they'll think, "that's just the way it is."

And blonde... I hope you are sitting there with anticipation for a good argument and not sitting there cherry red... smoke coming outta your ears... we are having a healthy "worthy" discussion.. so don't shoot me when I am walking down the street......

I have to revert back to my 1 bd/1 bath/ 1 ac example... I can find many more if you're tired of this one, but 250K for this piece of trash is NOT worth it.  I have looked and bidded many times, over and over around here and I always walk away shaking my head... and guess what?  Even the VA repos and HUD repos have been doing the same thing... heel, they's nots dumb eithers...  they want a piece of the pie too......

time for a beer......  

 

[vraiblonde]

Naw, I like a good exchange of ideas, as long as it doesn't get ugly.  And sometimes even then.

It is my understanding that "market value" is determined by the selling price of other like properties in the area.  The RE agent can educate me if I'm wrong.  Therefore, if your neighbor has a home similar to yours and they just sold for $200,000, you can expect that your house's appraisal will be close to that.

The shack on the water <i>is</i> high but you're paying for the waterfront.  Take the house off the water and you're looking at a MUCH lower price.  Now is waterfront "valuable"?  I guess it is if you want to live on the water.  If you don't care, you'll laugh and pass this house right on by.  For $250K you can have a lot more house, just not on the water.  O'Brien Realty has a TON of houses listed under $125K - cute ones, too.

 

[Lilly]

Darby -
Don't worry - I don't think Vrai or anyone else has been insulted by your posts - and we do enjoy a good argument around here!

Here comes MHO- which has been heard before - It is not impossible to find a decent house around here for a low budget - yes it is hard - it may take some waiting - but not impossible.  Yes there is a shortage of housing in the area for a certain price range.  I don't think that anyone is agruing that point.  It is pretty much a fact that there are a relatively few number of houses in the under $120K range for the picky buyer.
From what I understand - the argument here is that the builders/ realtors have somehow done us wrong and that rather than a high market we have a "bloated" market which is somehow - according to you- a dishonest sinful thing!
I am also looking for a house right now and my price range is around $150 - $160 so I don't think I fit into your category either - and by the way yes I do have kids to support and my income is not as close to the St. Mary's median of $70,000 as you probably think.
I don't really think that we can blame the builders and realtors for trying to make as much money as possible!  If offered a raise at work would you seriously turn it down because it might stop the mail room clerk from getting one as well?  I don't think so!
And I don't know which realtors you are dealing with because so far the ones I have worked with have been wonderful.  They are very up front with the values of the homes I have seen.  They give you the "asking" price (i.e. usually the most the home is worth) and then the assessment amount made by the county (i.e. usually less than the home will be appraised for).  Generally if your appraisal falls somewhere in between these numbers that is considered a good offer.  If someone else outbids you - oh well they wanted it more than you.  Tough Luck!  I don't think anyone is being decietful here - no one will try to sell you a house without getting an appraisal and most homeowners will work with the price if a appraisal comes in way low!
Another problem!  People are too picky about where they live and then cry because they can't find anything they can afford in the upper-wage areas.  There is plenty of affordable housing in Great Mills/ Lex Park area - but you know what?  No one wants to live there - and they cry because they can't afford the waterfront property like everybody else as if it is an unjustice.  Don't like Lex Park?  Try Piney Point, St. Clements Shores, Mechanicsville, Hollywood Shores - Many houses in these areas typically go for under $110K with very little work that needs to be done.  Yes there may not be a 100 of them for your choosing but they are there and will be there for the person willing to look hard enough!
Took a look at your website again and look up SM4150748.  It is a cute little 3 bedroom in Great Mills for $95K - I think it is on Chancellors Run - not a bad area at all!  What is wrong with this property?

 

[Ken King]

Lilly,

The median income in St. Mary's County is $49,495 according to the US Census Bureau, for Charles County it is $54,110, for Calvert County it is $57,017.  

 

[vraiblonde]

Ec & Dev says that in 1999 the median household income was $61,800.  They've got it on their website.  http://www.co.saint-marys.md.us/decd/

 

[Lilly]

That is funny, I heard on the radio this morning that the median income for St. Mary's County was $70,000.  I believe this was per family however not per individual - is that where our figures differ??
Then again - I only heard it on the radio - I guess it goes to show you that not everything you hear on the radio is true.  Gosh!  I am glad that doesn't go for TV as well!  

 

[DarbyOhara]

Darby - Don't worry - I don't think Vrai or anyone else has been insulted by your posts - and we do enjoy a good argument around here!

Good!

Here comes MHO- which has been heard before - It is not impossible to find a decent house around here for a low budget - yes it is hard - it may take some waiting - but not impossible.

Lilly, there aren't any... at least in the areas I have been looking... you suggested south of Lexington Park... I live 20 miles south now... and believe me, they are bloated too... and over-priced!

From what I understand - the argument here is that the builders/ realtors have somehow done us wrong and that rather than a high market we have a "bloated" market which is somehow - according to you- a dishonest sinful thing!

and your point is?  Of course it's wrong and there is NO accountability... especially when you get a ton of realty companies and developers defending the whole factor!  Let me guess... you married a developer?   lol

I am also looking for a house right now and my price range is around $150 - $160 so I don't think I fit into your category either - and by the way yes I do have kids to support and my income is not as close to the St. Mary's median of $70,000 as you probably think.

What category Lilly? There is no category... the subject (I'll remind you all again) that this area is bloated with their property value or selling prices!
As Ken stated.. you are WAY above the average in this county... however, someone should show those averages of each county to the state tax people... I am positive SMC is higher with that .0003 multiplier on the tax return....

I don't really think that we can blame the builders and realtors for trying to make as much money as possible!  If offered a raise at work

Yes we can!  and hang 'em from the nearest tree... lol  However, it the current marketing public that "allows" it to continue...

And I don't know which realtors you are dealing with because so far the ones I have worked with have been wonderful.  They are very up front with the values of the homes I have seen.  They give you

They got you pegged Lilly...  Next time you leave their office... sneak in the back door and eavesdrop....  Ummm.. let's see... what is that fish that swims at the bottom... looking for scraps?

 

[Lilly]

Thanks vrai!  Funny thing though - I swear that figure I heard on the radio was from a delagate from the county.  Anyone else listen to 98.3 this morning and here the same thing?

DarbyOhara on 2:52 pm on April 4, 2002[br}
Lilly, there aren't any... at least in the areas I have been looking...

Okay I believe this was my point - you . . . are . . being . . too . . picky - as far as the neighborhood you want to live in.  Of course you are not going to find a $100K house squat in between 2 $200K houses which are in the more desired areas.  There ARE low-priced houses out there - but not in the most desired areas to live.  

 Let me guess... you married a developer?   lol  

In a way I guess - He is an Engineer who oversees construction of commercial buildings.  But no, has no ties to the Real Estate Business

the subject (I'll remind you all again) that this area is bloated with their property value or selling prices!

Okay this has been discussed before and I think the general consensus was  - If they are so overpriced - why the hell are they selling so fast???

Actually no one has me pegged Darby - even though you seem to think YOU do!  
By the way - What ABOUT the house in Great Mills - I would love to hear your argument on that!

The bottom line is this.  Housing prices are based on supply & demand - right now demand is high- supply is low (I do believe this has been explained before).  But also right now there is a ton of construction going on and most of it is higher priced versus "affordable".  Eventually demand will go down as the supply goes up after many of these new "communities" are finished.  I am sure you will see much more "reasonable" prices down the road.  Until then - just deal with it - the rest of us are!

 

[vraiblonde]

Lily, it could very well be $70K by now - my figures were for 3 years ago.

Darby, I think you should take out an ad in the paper telling people to STOP buying houses in Southern Maryland because it just bloats prices.  Add in there that they also shouldn't move here for jobs because it just feeds into the greed of employers.  You could start a boycott!  And be on CNN!

 

[DarbyOhara]

Thanks vrai!  Funny thing though - I swear that figure I heard on the radio was from a delagate from the county.  Anyone else listen to 98.3 this morning and here the same thing?

Not me... I listen to that awesome DarbyOhara band in the cd player  :guitar:  

Actually no one has me pegged Darby - even though you seem to think YOU do!

How could I think that?  
 

By the way - What ABOUT the house in Great Mills - I would love to hear your argument on that!

Lilly, I wanted to comment in my last post but the whistle blew and I and to jet!  Now... here I am and guess what... I KNOW THAT property!  I looked at it 1 1/2 years ago... it is TRASHED.. Even my realtor stated it would cost 20K to make it livable... it is "BANK owned" and they refuse to drop a penny....  Can you smell FDIC?

Now.... DRINK a beer with me and don't shoot from the hip.....

 

[DarbyOhara]

vraiblonde on 3:29 pm on April 4, 2002[br]Lily, it could very well be $70K by now - my figures were for 3 years ago.

Darby, I think you should take out an ad in the paper telling people to STOP buying houses in Southern Maryland because it just bloats prices.  Add in there that they also shouldn't move here for jobs because it just feeds into the greed of employers.  You could start a boycott!  And be on CNN!

Or I could plot a seat with the future homeless... and beg for handouts and get thrown in jail.... Lordy knows we got enough police in area... practically one for every block it seems at times...

 

[vraiblonde]

beg for handouts and get thrown in jail

Then you could have a FREE place to live!  Heck, they even feed you!

 

[Frank]

The numbers being used indeed refer to household income.  Median income is *usually* about 2/3 of that, typically. Household is defined as all persons residing in a housing unit. Housing unit itself is a little more variously defined, but most people have a good idea what it means (house, apartment, condo etc. - anything considered a distinct residence).

Bear in mind, this is also 'median' income, and that half of all households are by definition, below that value. If half are below a value you consider rather low - and many households consist of two wage-earners - you can see that making ends meet is a little more of a challenge for a lot of people.

 

[ByeBye]

Hello all!

    I just wanted to give everyone an update, not that anyone cares  I'm leaving southern maryland for a job in Buffalo, and my wife will be moving with me in August after she spends a couple months doing art conservation overseas.  I wish everyone well in whatever their pursuits may be.  Don't get stuck in too much traffic!
    Unfortunately, I never really got to know my neighbors, but I pretty much gathered, no-one down here was interested in getting to know me either.  Just walking by people on the street, (the one or two that might be out), you might expect someone to stop and talk, but it's just the ubiquitous hand wave / head nod, "howdy" and general suspicion of strangers that pervades so much of our country.  Generally, I'm reminded of a place where I grew up.  As for me, I'll be walking to work, looking forward to 20 minute cross town commutes!  Chatting with my neighbors!  Yippee!
    As for desirable neighborhoods, could anyone here describe a desirable neighborhood or area for me?  And I'm looking for specifics.  Don't just say, "low crime, good schools", duh?  Conversely, could people here tell me what kind of areas are undesirable?  Just a few examples would suffice.

Oh, by the way, I was just looking at a house in Buffalo.  

4,123 sq. ft.  (Duplex, One Upper unit, one lower unit) not including attic/basement.  2.5 story foyer.  Small lot (42X55) but near the park and Niagara river  (about 10 min walk).  
Taxes--$1,600 (although this is probably an old assessment).  This is school AND property tax folks.
Price? -- 90K.  

For that price, you could convert it to a huge single family house (although why anybody would want 4100 sq ft to clean up after is beyond me).  Like I said, real quality builds, none of the McMansion drywall/chipboard stuff you see go up overnight.

Can't believe this?  Check out:

http://www.buffaloniagarahomes.com/property/Detail_3.cfm?ID=153277&table=multipleunit&open_house_search=NO&src=bnh

 

[mgorfain]

OK

I have  few replies for all of you

darby ..... thanks for your compliment.  I will not be tarnished by my peers the reason I went in this business is because of the bad real estate experience I incured 12 years ago when I moved here.  It was clear to me this market needed agents who were not afraid to be upfront & honest with people.  Donald Trump said if you want to be succesful, see what everyone else is doing & do the opposite.  that applies in real estate sales.  If everyone else is sitting floor time, waiting for business to fall in their laps and not being honest about market values, all I have to do is the opposite and I will and have been successful.

vrailblonde .....you are right about values not being determined by agents or for that matter the sellers.  Market value is determined by by the buyer when they buy the home.  I admit on occassion I see buyers who do IMHO pay too much for homes even when I advise against it.  as I said, buying a home is an emotional decision.  I have also seen sellers that MUST sell and drop the price for a fast sale.  Ultimately,  market value is determined by the buyer when they make an offer.  I could give lots of examples of this, but it would bore you.

Lilly ..... I am glad you've had good experiences with the agents you've used.  It sounds like you've been fortunate to get into the hands of the top percentage of agents who actually sell.  (Just so you all know, the average agent in this market only sells 6 homes a year..at an average commission of 3000 that makes most agents actually earning LESS than the buyers they work with!)  this is another reason why agents have gotten the reputation of being dishonest, they ARE despirate because they are struggling with too few sales.

Bye bye ..... I guess you started this forum because you are trying to determine what your home REALLY is worth, if you are thinking of selling.  If you'd like the truth about the correct price for your home see the attachment at the top of my posts that link to my business website and you can email me so we can set 15 minutes aside so I can see your home and review a market anaylsis to assess the approximate value of your property.  I've sold over 20 homes this year so far and sold 65 homes last year so I do know what I am doing.

Honestly, real estate is a crazy business and a frustrating topic for most people.  I want to take a moment to commend ALL the posters here for their obvious intelligence and insights.  I also want to THANK all of you because by hearing how the public assesses the market it will help me as an agent to be more sensitive to others needs and feelings about a difficult topic.  thanks to all of you!

 

[ByeBye]

mgorfain,

   Nope.  I rent a 23X23 home for 750/mo.  Yikes!  But thanks for providing your services.  My intent was really to determine if SOMD is headed the way of Southern California, or if there will be some stabilization of market demands.  In 10 yrs, if we still have a booming defense industry, I suspect that SOMD will look like SoCal.  If there is an administrational policy change or defense gradually tapers in favor of other investments then who knows?  Frankly, I am concerned that a downturn could negatively affect many of today's homebuyers, tomorrow.
    For me, a home has never really been about market value, investment, etc.  It's a place to call "home", and in that vein, I may have already found such a place in Buffalo.  However, for the transient population of SOMD (which I gather is actually quite large), the above mentioned factors do become quite important, and consequently, caveat emptor I suppose.  Again best of luck to all.

Regards to all.

 

[DarbyOhara]

 Again best of luck to all.
Regards to all.

ByeBye...   Good luck in your move to upstate NY... and TAKE LOTS OF COATS... you know it's feezin up there!    Cheers and don't be too despondent on SOMD people... there are lots of good folks here... I have bad encounters with people where ever I go... and remember, there's always a few bad apples in the basket!  Be good and take care.....

mgorfain.....  you are welcome for the comments.. but you know, I don't know you in person and I have met quite a few Realtors... and they always sound so good in the beginning... I am not saying you are like this.. and I hope you aren't like this...  A little update of a house I bidded on.. that has been sitting on the market for over 6 months... it's a big old trashed home... south of St Mary's college (they rented it to college kids)... 4bd, 2bath... on a commercial (CVC) lot with .6 ac.... they were about to put siding on it cause it wasn't moving.  He wants 99K.. I bidded 89K and my closing.... ha!  he came back with 99K WITHOUT my closing....  "shakin head"  I told the agent, my final offer is... I'll accept 99K w/o closing.. but he will replace the house siding with vynl...  I already know what the answer is gonna be... cause these people that own houses here (multiple) they play with you... they try to squeeze every inch and wonder why their house isn't selling...   My rent lease isn't up till Oct... so guess I'll go back to my recording studio and jam... heck with house buyin crap.... besides.. my lady works for an apt complex.. so rent there will be cheap when this lease is up...  

 

[mgorfain]

darby...

I TOTALLY understand how you feel.  As I think I said earlier in this forum..when I moved here no REALTOR seemed to know what they were doing (this was 12 years ago) and I ended up doing all the work for a year, walked my own lots because everytime an agent tried to walk a lot with me, they weren't sure if it was the right lot or the boundaries of the property lines, etc.  I got frustrated with them, asked for all active and expired listings that hadn't sold, got a plat map and walked my own lots for a year until I found the perfect one (perfect is relative, I didn't get a nose bleed while walking on it) wrote an offer the agent scoffed at (it was "expired" and listing usually expire because they are priced too high), the offer was accepted, I interviewed builders...basically I did all the work, and the agent got paid!  I told myself once my kids got into school I'd become an agent, because in my opinion then, the area didn't have any agents who knew anything or cared.

So there you have my brief story!  I felt like you did, frustrated and I felt like noone wanted to help me.  As a buyer I needed help and I was sorely disappointed.  There are some very good agents in this area, now that I am in the business I know who they are.  I just wish that back then I had gotten into the hands of one of them.  Then again, if I had, I may never have entered this line of work, and inspite of dealing at times with peers who at times frustrate me, I am pleased to be doing something meaningful for others who really just need to feel like someone out there cares as much as they do.

Bye bye...bbrrrrr  Upstate New York????  Even here is too cold for my liking.  I wish you the best, even though we have only briefly spoken.

 

[Diana]

laugh at this!!

I have been living in San Francisco for seven years and was super excited when my husband and I agreed to plan a move to southern MD.

I hadn't a clue about the real estate market there...and as I am young and have never owned a home, I only knew about home values here in the city.

I called a realtor by using national directory assistance and just by chance the agent I reached knew my mom and grandma!

Then when she asked what price range we would be looking into I humbly and deflatedly said, "Oh...we're quite new at this and not very rich...we couldn't afford anything beyond 350,000 I'm sure" She says to me, "Sweetie, we don't have anything out here beyond $350,000!" and laughed her little old lady head off at me!!

LOL!

By the way...I live in the Richmond district in San Francisco...the house next door to our flat is selling for $699,000!!! Its 100 years old, has no yard and is smack in front of a bus stop! LOL!!

 

[Sharon]

Originally posted by Diana
"Oh...we're quite new at this and not very rich...we couldn't afford anything beyond 350,000 I'm sure"