rraley said:
The world's largest military. The world's fastest growing economy. The world's third largest nuclear arsenal. The largest foreign owner of American debt. The world's highest level of industrial and business productivity. Quite a damn resume for an up and coming power.
Plus the child limitation policies are only in effect for cities (limited to two children) and even if that does lead to a somewhat smaller population over the years, what then China will have a population of 950 million instead of 1 billion?
Just a few points...
1. Saying that China has the largest military is kinda like saying that McDonalds is the nations largest employer of skilled professionals. The Chinsese military is made up of mainly conscripts who are trained to the level of being cannon fodder. The Chinese have always used massed human attacks in place of technology, but with the advent of cannister munitions the days of the "human wave" attacks are going away. The Chinese have a very incapable Navy, and their air force isn't worth much either. They have nuclear weapons, but they are pretty much land-based, meaning eaily targetable, as their only ballistic missile sub is pretty much AFU. In short, the PROC military is more like Hussein's than the Soviet's or our's.
2. They have a fast-growing economy, but that growth is only supported by growing privatization, which reduces the influence of the government. I'm wondering how far the govies will let their influence drop before they hit the brakes on private industry, which will greatly slow that economic growth.
3. They have developed a huge industrial capability on the government side, but not so much on the business side (most large businesses are actually just arms of the government.) But like the Soviets, they have had to sacrifice personal living conditions in order to invest as much as they have in industry. That just doesn't sit well with people, especially once the freedom bug hits them.
4. The two-child waiver is only for residents of rural areas, and only after obtaining government approval. City residents are limited to one child with no waivers. IRT Toxick's comments, the one-child policy is having a greater impact than in just numbers. Chinese tradition calls for the father of the bride to pay a stipend, expenses, etc., when a couple gets married. Also, men have more options for work and benefits than women, and as a result there are far more births of females aborted than males as it's better financially to have a son than a daughter. This systematic process of steadily increasing the male population, while decreasing the female population is great news for ugly Chinese gals, but is really in danger of upsetting the natural balance of things.