Indy vs. Pats

LastSon

Man of Tomorrow
:lol:

No, he didn't make the right call and no, you don't have a better chance of stopping ANY quarterback in 30 yards than you do in 70. That's just silly.

He made a gutsy call, didn't work out.

Brian Burke said:
With 2:08 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful 4th-and-2 conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A conversion on 4th-and-2 would be successful 60 percent of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53 percent of the time from that field position. The total win probability for the 4th-down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP (WP stands for win probability)

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their 34. Teams historically get the TD 30 percent of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You’d have to expect the Colts had a better than 30 percent chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats’ 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it’s pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that makes punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

You can argue with the play call, but the fact that he went for it was the right call.
 
T

toppick08

Guest
You can argue with the play call, but the fact that he went for it was the right call.

nope......just an arrogant one, which got slammed down his video taping throat.......should have run it....:coffee:
 

Larry Gude

Strung Out
You can argue with the play call, but the fact that he went for it was the right call.

No, it wasn't. You can play with stats all you like and come up will all manner of convoluted results. That has nothing to do with this exact situation in this exact game. I can go through the rubble of a plane crash and the black box and engineering galore but, at the end of the day, the plane still hit the ground.

If that play fails, your vaunted stats probably go through the roof in favor of manning only needing 30 yards instead of 70. So, he brought the whole game down to ONE play and the chance of winning right then and there weighed against the virtual certainty of losing from there if they don't make it.

So, you punt and then the game rests on SEVERAL plays. A fumble? A pic? A holding call? A dropped pass? False start?

Gutsy call. He's the coach. I have far less problem with them going for it than pretty much anyone else but, bad call. Life ain't perfect. It's just a game. We all move on.

:buddies:
 

itsbob

I bowl overhand
peyton is the truth

and a piss poor call by coach bill

Are you sure??

It seemed almost TOO unbelievable.. almost like the coach was told "Indy WILL win this game" and in an act of defiance let his team play the first half to show the world who the better team was, but in the end toed the line and lost as instructed.

Like a prize fighter taking a dive, beating his opponent senseless until finally he did what he was supposed to do.
 

Black-Francis

New Member
Are you sure??

It seemed almost TOO unbelievable.. almost like the coach was told "Indy WILL win this game" and in an act of defiance let his team play the first half to show the world who the better team was, but in the end toed the line and lost as instructed.

Like a prize fighter taking a dive, beating his opponent senseless until finally he did what he was supposed to do.

It was all for the books in Vegas....:yay:
 

BuddyLee

Football addict
Are you sure??

It seemed almost TOO unbelievable.. almost like the coach was told "Indy WILL win this game" and in an act of defiance let his team play the first half to show the world who the better team was, but in the end toed the line and lost as instructed.

Like a prize fighter taking a dive, beating his opponent senseless until finally he did what he was supposed to do.
Nah, just looked like Bellicheck's arrogance showing. This time instead of putting up 50+ on an opponent the other guy swung back and connected.
 

BuddyLee

Football addict
I just think there's way too much money involved in ALL pro sports now for it to be 100% legit, and "real"..
The Colts were favored by 2 and they won by 1. The Patriots still beat the spread.

If it wasn't so legit why would they have the Buccaneers of all teams win the Super Bowl?:lmao:

Why doesn't Peyton have more than one?

Why haven't the Cowboys won a playoff game in a decade + if they're so loved and most sought after team?

I think there are too many competetive players and personel involved in the league to think otherwise.
 

LastSon

Man of Tomorrow
No, not really.

He didn't make it, did he?

That should be your first clue.:lmao:

Ya know, I just watched the video replay and I fail to see where Bellichick was on the field for the play. He didn't make the high throw, nor the terrible catch. Coaches can't execute for the team, the players have to make the plays. New England didn't, Indy did, simple as that.
 

BuddyLee

Football addict
Ya know, I just watched the video replay and I fail to see where Bellichick was on the field for the play. He didn't make the high throw, nor the terrible catch. Coaches can't execute for the team, the players have to make the plays. New England didn't, Indy did, simple as that.
He made the call. He was the catalyst.

If the players don't execute that only goes back to the coaching staff. You're only proving my point. The buck stops here and all that.

Don't give me that bull. You know how it works.:buddies:
 
Last edited:
Top