School at home this week...

[LightRoasted]

If I may ...

When people embrace a culture of ignorance and ignore basic science literacy the children suffer.

Why do you even care about sending children to school when the top educated mind of this country frighten you? Seems you spent most of your school years banging rocks behind a shed somewhere.

Your writings intrigue me. Do you have a newsletter to which I can subscribe?

 

[Bluecrqbe]

I'm just -- annoyed - that they make it SOUND both on the school phone message and the email that it is POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS.

Oh freaking please. They had a "surge" in cases.

Because they tested more.

Look, you do more testing, you'll get more cases. They make it SOUND like it means the disease is advancing or progressing, but statistically they can't do that at all because they NEVER HAVE a good idea of the total population of infected.

See, they CAN measure the growth of crabs or oysters in the Bay because they've been monitoring it for years. They know how to measure growth because of the volume of data they already have. This is more like deciding all of a sudden you'd like to measure the growth of say, spot in the Bay - but you haven't the slightest clue how many there are, or supposed to be (maybe they do). You can't go around taking samples to gauge its GROWTH in the Bay, because you don't know how many there are or ought to be.

When we test for COVID, we really aren't measuring growth and advance of a disease - we're measuring cases that for the most part are ALREADY THERE. It's kind of like discovering a hundred new islands and claiming the Earth is growing new ones. It is a really stupid metric.

I agree that testing is a waste of time and resources and should be stopped ASAP, there are concerns about how many people are going and STAYING in the hospital. About 50 a day, if that pace keeps we’ll beat the April record in a few weeks

Pages - Home

An official website of the State of Maryland.

coronavirus.maryland.gov

I don’t know who these people are that are going to the hospital or why, what they think they have, or what they think the hospital is supposed to do.

But, I see the human nature writing on the wall, we may not lock down but I’ll be sure I’m not going to be stuck without paper towels for the holidays!

 

[SamSpade]

I agree that testing is a waste of time and resources and should be stopped ASAP, there are concerns about how many people are going and STAYING in the hospital. About 50 a day, if that pace keeps we’ll beat the April record in a few weeks

I don’t know who these people are that are going to the hospital or why, what they think they have, or what they think the hospital is supposed to do.

But, I see the human nature writing on the wall, we may not lock down but I’ll be sure I’m not going to be stuck without paper towels for the holidays!

I can't tell if you're trying to be funny or not.

I look at pages - like this one -

Maryland coronavirus information and stats

Real-time Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases tracker and resources to keep you safe.

corona.help

Basically I hate "cumulative" graphs because they will ALWAYS go up. You can't see if it's getting better, because it is impossible for a TOTAL to go down. So I use the LOG feature - a line that appears to slow down almost asymptotically toward a maximum shows a rate that is HUGELY slowing. Moreover, it allows the ability to see the daily occurrences of deaths and infections ("cases"). What I see is no discernible trend in infection rate - it spikes and drops but there's no long term arch upward, and deaths are clearly down but very slightly "clustered" - meaning the DENSITY of occurrences is larger - but nowhere NEAR the springtime numbers.

I don't think testing is without value. It's just that massive testing without meaningful targeting is just pointless, because it WILL find cases, but most people who get this will get it and get over it without EVER KNOWING they had it. Test the susceptible and vulnerable - test the personnel interacting with them. Test the symptomatic. But without a good reason - say for tracing - I don't see any point for massive testing. You cannot test for the growth in a population without any idea how big it is.

Personally - I think a LOT of us have it or have had it. The worst way to gauge its growth is to "suspect" it and go testing for it in a large group. I personally think as many as 10 percent or greater have it at any time, but very few show symptoms. Which means you WILL find it in any population you test. I think this virus is difficult to stop - I don't think, over time, much can be done to mitigate its spread.

 

[Bluecrqbe]

I can't tell if you're trying to be funny or not.

I look at pages - like this one -
https://corona.help/country/united-states/state/maryland/st-marys

Basically I hate "cumulative" graphs because they will ALWAYS go up. You can't see if it's getting better, because it is impossible for a TOTAL to go down. So I use the LOG feature - a line that appears to slow down almost asymptotically toward a maximum shows a rate that is HUGELY slowing. Moreover, it allows the ability to see the daily occurrences of deaths and infections ("cases"). What I see is no discernible trend in infection rate - it spikes and drops but there's no long term arch upward, and deaths are clearly down but very slightly "clustered" - meaning the DENSITY of occurrences is larger - but nowhere NEAR the springtime numbers.

I fixed the link you posted in this reply, looks like a copy/paste issue.
St. Mary’s has been managing this much better than the more denser counties, which is good news and makes sense since we’re fairly rural.

I just feel another sense of dread/panic building, it’s exhausting.

 

[GURPS]

I don't think testing is without value. It's just that massive testing without meaningful targeting is just pointless, because it WILL find cases, but most people who get this will get it and get over it without EVER KNOWING they had it. Test the susceptible and vulnerable - test the personnel interacting with them. Test the symptomatic. But without a good reason - say for tracing - I don't see any point for massive testing. You cannot test for the growth in a population without any idea how big it is.

the test has been determined to be overly sensitive as well

 

[SamSpade]

the test has been determined to be overly sensitive as well

I have to say that if this were a test for something MUCH worse - say, cancer - I wouldn't trust it with the high false positives and negatives.

 

[SamSpade]

I fixed the link you posted in this reply, looks like a copy/paste issue.
St. Mary’s has been managing this much better than the more denser counties, which is good news and makes sense since we’re fairly rural.

I just feel another sense of dread/panic building, it’s exhausting.

I really can't be dreading this. It has almost zero effect on children and the young. It has almost no lethality for healthy people all the way up to 70.
I have a very small chance of "getting" it (according to the testing data, which I doubt - in reality, I think many of us have already had it) and IF I get it, a miniscule chance of death or lingering illness.

To me lockdowns are a lot like suspending an entire high school because there's a couple dozen kids in gangs causing mayhem.
No. Deal with the problem. Those in danger - they stay isolated. Those not in danger, minimal caution.

Think of it this way - if they start mandating masks and punishing for non-compliance - how many people who don't comply will actually HAVE the virus? If so few of us have it - there is zero danger. It would be like insisting on an emissions sticker on an electric car, just because it's the law.

 

[PeoplesElbow]

I agree that testing is a waste of time and resources and should be stopped ASAP, there are concerns about how many people are going and STAYING in the hospital. About 50 a day, if that pace keeps we’ll beat the April record in a few weeks

Pages - Home

An official website of the State of Maryland.

coronavirus.maryland.gov

I don’t know who these people are that are going to the hospital or why, what they think they have, or what they think the hospital is supposed to do.

But, I see the human nature writing on the wall, we may not lock down but I’ll be sure I’m not going to be stuck without paper towels for the holidays!

I would say the ppl going to the hospital are having trouble breathing.

 

[Sneakers]

Personally - I think a LOT of us have it or have had it.

I would agree, but I don't trust the testing. Over a week ago, I had a multitude of Covid symptoms; sore throat, congestion, cough, fever, headache... still have the cough and runny nose. But my Covid test came back negative. I did all the "right" things... isolated, masked, distance, but I still got something that appears to have been Covid.

 

[kwillia]

I would agree, but I don't trust the testing. Over a week ago, I had a multitude of Covid symptoms; sore throat, congestion, cough, fever, headache... still have the cough and runny nose. But my Covid test came back negative. I did all the "right" things... isolated, masked, distance, but I still got something that appears to have been Covid.

The rapid (same day results) test is know for false negatives. Was yours a rapid test?

 

[Sneakers]

The rapid (same day results) test is know for false negatives. Was yours a rapid test?

No, 3 day turnaround. But I had a thought... I had trouble finding a Covid testing site that was open due to Election day. Around 2pm, I used a nasal spray just so I could breathe. Then I found an open test site around 3:30 and got tested. Wondering if the hydrochloric acid in the spray negated the test.

 

[kwillia]

Could be... they are reporting a baby shampoo nose rinse dissipates 99% of COVID germs for a good period of time.

 

[kom526]

Could be... they are reporting a baby shampoo nose rinse dissipates 99% of COVID germs for a good period of time.

Instead of Crown and water I should be drinking Johnson and Johnson No More tears and water?

 

[kom526]

Anyone with a brain knew the back to school wouldn't even last three weeks.

My son has been in school since August with only a total of 37 cumulative cases across the ENTIRE school population.

 

[Burnthings]

My son has been in school since August with only a total of 37 cumulative cases across the ENTIRE school population.

What school?

 

[Gilligan]

Wonder what wisdom Buttthings had to offer? No..not really..

 

[PeoplesElbow]

My son has been in school since August with only a total of 37 cumulative cases across the ENTIRE school population.

That is excellent, or it's a small school, large regional schools:
Virginia Tech about 1500
Penn State about 4200
University of MD about 2200
West Virginia about 800

 

[kom526]

That is excellent, or it's a small school, large regional schools:
Virginia Tech about 1500
Penn State about 4200
University of MD about 2200
West Virginia about 800

It is a small school, 3965 students plus faculty and staff. They have been testing everybody every 10 days and most importantly the kids have been following the protocols and of course some of the classes were online. My son is an ENGR major and has only 1 of 5 classes online and it seems to be working very well. They did have a spike of 23 positives last week, which coincides with the incubation time and Halloween. They did trace it back a fraternity off campus. He is about 90 minutes east of Penn State.

 

[PeoplesElbow]

It is a small school, 3965 students plus faculty and staff. They have been testing everybody every 10 days and most importantly the kids have been following the protocols and of course some of the classes were online. My son is an ENGR major and has only 1 of 5 classes online and it seems to be working very well. They did have a spike of 23 positives last week, which coincides with the incubation time and Halloween. They did trace it back a fraternity off campus. He is about 90 minutes east of Penn State.

How are they doing the dining halls? That has to be difficult.