I already don't like a lot of his views; but I'm waiting to reserve any judgment about him until he's been running a while. In the Democratic primaries, it's not uncommon for the first big name out of the box to crash and burn early. Everyone was SO SURE that we'd elect Edmund Muskie or Jerry Brown or Gary Hart or Howard Dean - but it didn't happen.
Obama is riding on a wave of enthusiasm because he's new and largely unknown. There's a novelty factor about him. I don't see it lasting. And I think it's foolish of him to run so early in his career, because by and large the voting public doesn't vote for a guy who loses the first time.
So far, I'm not terribly impressed with his ideas - because he hasn't articulated any. It's the same kind of novelty bluster and pathos that got Jimmy elected. The Democrats had a whole panoply of experienced leaders in '76, but who they nominated was a largely unknown governor from Georgia who promised not to lie. At least Bill Clinton with his sunglasses and saxophone promised to end welfare as we know it and give the middle class a tax cut. Everything I've read so far from Obama seems like hot air.
But I'll give you that he is articulate. He has charisma. What he hasn't seen however, is the brutality of a real campaign. He hasn't had a press ready to rip him to pieces. That's why I'm withholding any judgment on him; if he can stand up under such pressure, we'll see. I probably STILL won't vote for him; and if the Iraq conflict is mostly subsided by '08, he loses, because his number one ace on his side is his stance on the war. If the war should be a minor issue in a year, he loses to Hillary or whoever else is in contention then.
