Super Bowl - Football Pool 2010/11

[Rael]

SUPER BOWL
50 possible points in 17 categories. In a tie, the win goes to retiredweaxman for having 103 cumulative playoff points to my 81. The line is PACKERS -2.5 STEELERS. The reference for total game points scored is 44.5 (Over or Under). Both of us can change picks (even after it’s posted already) up until kick-off. @ wx, I won’t open this thread until I post my picks, so take your time (there’s plenty of it until kick-off). If you have questions or if I am unclear on any of this, you can pm me or post them in last week’s Championship Round thread. I guess the easiest way is to reply w/quote and place your picks next to each category. Once we both post, I'll get them in the scorecard and post it. Here are the picks areas and point amounts:

- 1st team to score (1)
- 1st defensive sack (1)
- 1st team penalty (1)
- 1st team to turnover (1)
- 1st quarter total points scored – 11.5 Over/Under (1)
- Half-time total points scored – 22.5 Over/Under (2)
- 3rd quarter total points scored – 33.5 Over/Under (3)
- 4th quarter total game points scored – 44.5 Over/Under (4)
- Team with least turnovers (3)
- Team with least penalties (3)
- Team with most defensive sacks (3)
- Team with most passing yards (3)
- Team with most time of possession (3)
- Steelers total yards - 345.5 Over/Under (4)
- Packers total yards – 329.5 Over/Under (4)
- Last team to score (3)
- Super Bowl winner (based upon the 2.5 point spread) (10)

Good luck!

 

[Merlin99]

SUPER BOWL
50 possible points in 17 categories. In a tie, the win goes to retiredweaxman for having 103 cumulative playoff points to my 81. The line is PACKERS -2.5 STEELERS. The reference for total game points scored is 44.5 (Over or Under). Both of us can change picks (even after it’s posted already) up until kick-off. @ wx, I won’t open this thread until I post my picks, so take your time (there’s plenty of it until kick-off). If you have questions or if I am unclear on any of this, you can pm me or post them in last week’s Championship Round thread. I guess the easiest way is to reply w/quote and place your picks next to each category. Once we both post, I'll get them in the scorecard and post it. Here are the picks areas and point amounts:

- 1st team to score (1)
- 1st defensive sack (1)
- 1st team penalty (1)
- 1st team to turnover (1)
- 1st quarter total points scored – 11.5 Over/Under (1)
- Half-time total points scored – 22.5 Over/Under (2)
- 3rd quarter total points scored – 33.5 Over/Under (3)
- 4th quarter total game points scored – 44.5 Over/Under (4)
- Team with least turnovers (3)
- Team with least penalties (3)
- Team with most defensive sacks (3)
- Team with most passing yards (3)
- Team with most time of possession (3)
- Steelers total yards - 345.5 Over/Under (4)
- Packers total yards – 329.5 Over/Under (4)
- Last team to score (3)
- Super Bowl winner (based upon the 2.5 point spread) (10)

Good luck!

I'm almost glad I didn't make it this far, my degree doesn't stretch far enough to make much sense of this.

 

[retiredweaxman]

- 1st team to score (1) GB
- 1st defensive sack (1) PITT
- 1st team penalty (1) GB
- 1st team to turnover (1) PITT
- 1st quarter total points scored – 11.5 Over/Under (1) over
- Half-time total points scored – 22.5 Over/Under (2) over
- 3rd quarter total points scored – 33.5 Over/Under (3) over
- 4th quarter total game points scored – 44.5 Over/Under (4) over
- Team with least turnovers (3) GB
- Team with least penalties (3) PITT
- Team with most defensive sacks (3) PITT
- Team with most passing yards (3)GB
- Team with most time of possession (3) PITT
- Steelers total yards - 345.5 Over/Under (4) over
- Packers total yards – 329.5 Over/Under (4) under
- Last team to score (3) GB
- Super Bowl winner (based upon the 2.5 point spread) (10) GB

 

[retiredweaxman]

Commish - I sincerely wish you the best of luck next weekend. Thank you for taking so much of your personal time to ensure this "league" ran with no hitches through the year. Your dedication has been second to none!!!

 

[Rael]

- 1st team to score (1) PACKERS
- 1st defensive sack (1) PACKERS
- 1st team penalty (1) STEELERS
- 1st team to turnover (1) STEELERS
- 1st quarter total points scored – 11.5 Over/Under (1) UNDER
- Half-time total points scored – 22.5 Over/Under (2) OVER
- 3rd quarter total points scored – 33.5 Over/Under (3) UNDER
- 4th quarter total game points scored – 44.5 Over/Under (4) OVER
- Team with least turnovers (3) PACKERS
- Team with least penalties (3) PACKERS
- Team with most defensive sacks (3) PACKERS
- Team with most passing yards (3) STEELERS
- Team with most time of possession (3) STEELERS
- Steelers total yards - 345.5 Over/Under (4) UNDER
- Packers total yards – 329.5 Over/Under (4) OVER
- Last team to score (3) STEELERS
- Super Bowl winner (based upon the 2.5 point spread) (10) PACKERS

Now onto comparing them!

 

[Rael]

I'm almost glad I didn't make it this far, my degree doesn't stretch far enough to make much sense of this.

Those overs/unders can be a little tricky at first, but not that bad. The real trick is trying to take an educated stab at what both teams are actually going to do next Sunday..

Commish - I sincerely wish you the best of luck next weekend. Thank you for taking so much of your personal time to ensure this "league" ran with no hitches through the year. Your dedication has been second to none!!!

Thanks, it's been a fun ride this year. Thanks for being a part of it, also.

 

[retiredweaxman]

Commish, I know you have given "permission" (sorry, could not think of a better word) to change picks by this weekend. My picks are locked and loaded.

I look at it this way - it is all conjecture. I also learned the hard way a long time ago - go with your first instinct.

So, unless Rodgers busts a leg or Mendenhall snaps an arm or Ben meets up with some co-ed, I will be leaving my picks alone.

 

[clevalley]

Commish, I know you have given "permission" (sorry, could not think of a better word) to change picks by this weekend. My picks are locked and loaded.

I look at it this way - it is all conjecture. I also learned the hard way a long time ago - go with your first instinct.

So, unless Rodgers busts a leg or Mendenhall snaps an arm or Ben meets up with some co-ed, I will be leaving my picks alone.

Good luck to the two of you!

 

[retiredweaxman]

Good luck to the two of you!

Thanks CLEVALLEY!!

 

[Tilted]

Good luck to both of you. I hope somebody wins by 1 point as a result of the last play of the game.

 

[Rael]

Early (blank) scorecard to compile our Super Bowl picks... my football pool seasonal game analysis to follow later in the week.

 

[homedepot20]

Good luck to the two of you!

Same Here!

 

[Rael]

A little season recap and analysis before we move on to the big game. First, I’d like to look at why us two made it to the playoffs to begin with. It was mostly good raw scores, and not totally the five pointer picks. Out of 256 regular season games, retiredweaxman (I’m saying Wx from now on) had 10 more wins than losses for just under 52%. For me, I had 16 more wins than losses at just over 53%. We were two of only 7 players who finished over 50% in raw picks for the season. Only two of these seven above 50% did not make the playoffs, but their totals were next in the queue. We were also the only two players who made the playoffs having only 7 five point picks for the season (and the lowest of all playoff players). In fact, while there were three other regular season players who also only had 7 fivers for the year, there was only one other player in the whole league who had less fivers than those of us with seven (so we were definitely bottom dwellers in the fiver department). Raw scores is what got us to the playoffs (by countering inconsistent fiver picks).

For the first half of the season, Wx was in the top of the west division with 7 out of 9 weeks in either 1st or 2nd place. Completely the opposite (pretty much a nose dive) in the second half, but finished very strong (a 17 score in week 15, and 15 points in week 17 helped enormously). Bottom line: a strong start and strong finish enabled him to reach the 12th highest total points in the league…enough for the final remaining wildcard slot (which is all that matters).

Now, it’s easy to say “forget about the regular season stats, this is the playoffs, and that’s all that matters”. On the most part, I’d agree with this statement. But one part of the regular season stats is what makes the playoff story for Wx interesting. Maybe even to the point of slightly convincing you that winning in these playoffs could be a little more than just luck, or…maybe not. But hear this out as I explain Wx’s playoff run. His story is way more interesting than mine.

Last week he went against puggymom in the Championship Round. And won, squeaking it out 46-45 in a down-to-the-very end match where just a single 1-pt pick made the difference between winning and losing. About puggymom--not only had she finished the regular season tied (in the whole league) for third place with 172 points (11 points more than Wx), but she also was tied (with only three others) as the highest fiver total in the league with 11. Of 17 weeks, 15 of them she was in at least 3rd place and 5 of them she was in 2nd place. Consistently great picks. You’ll read more of the word ‘consistent’ in the other two playoff rounds.

The week before that he went head-to-head with thurley42 in the divisional round. And won a comfortable 35-15 win. About thurley42—number 1 regular season total score w/ 177…16 more than Wx. thurley42 spent only 5 weeks in third place, the remaining weeks he was in either 2nd or 1st (7 weeks in 2nd, 5 in 1st, and finished the season in 1st place for the whole league). He had 10 fivers and the 2nd highest raw score (137 Wins & 119 Losses…53.5%). With only two weeks of sub-par scores below 50%, he was consistently excellent at picks all season long.

The week before that (does anybody remember that far back?) in the WildCard round he went against Tilted and won in a fairly close 22-12 match. About Tilted—highest raw picks at 140 wins and 116 losses, or 54.7%--that’s fifty-four-point-seven percent WINNING against odds! 2nd in total points with 176—15 more than Wx. Tilted’s division rank stats were equally amazing. Of 17 weeks, he was only in 2nd place for 3 weeks. The other 14 weeks he was number 1. So, you can see a pattern of consistency here in all three rounds and by all three of Wx’s playoff opponents, but Tilted’s consistency is unmatched this year by anyone (except for thurley42’s regular season 1st place finish, which is always the stat that really matters). Highest, consistently excellent picks, all season long.

So, what’s this all mean? Well, to me (I’ll take my SB contender hat off here for a second) it means he has already played against and defeated the top three players all season long throughout the playoffs and coming into the Super Bowl. I think this favors him making confident picks in the big game. He has proven that he has grasped the ‘different from the regular season’ playoffs criteria very well (picking other than the line and a fiver), and can think clearly about things players don’t have to think about in all other regular season games (yardage, penalties, offense/defense, turnovers, points, totals, firsts, and confidence levels, etc.). In these playoffs he has clearly adapted well to the new picks criteria.

Me? I’m just hoping I’m totally wrong about my assessment of Wx when I took my SB contender hat off… But seriously, good luck.

 

[retiredweaxman]

Thanks Commish!!!

Best of luck to you as well Sunday. As they say in fantasy football, "May the best prepared team win." In our case, may I say, "May the best thought out game forecast win!!!"

Unfortunately, due to my travel and work schedule, I will only be able to watch the 1st quarter or so...Hopefully by then, GB will be up by 24-0 and I will not miss too much!!!

 

[Rael]

I am so looking forward to this game tonight (maybe someone will start a Super Bowl tread a little later on), but these two teams are really an awesome match-up. I can't think of two more ideally suited teams to be in this. Play on!

 

[Merlin99]

Good luck to both of you, been a fun season.

 

[retiredweaxman]

Thanks MERLIN!!!

The real reason for the post though is to have a dry run of my new avatar on this - the most special of all NFL days!!!!

 

[puggymom]

Good luck today guys!!!

 

[retiredweaxman]

Commish,

Once again - best of luck to you today!!! Wish I could watch the whole game, but real life intrudes...

I see our match up as going either way. I have taken the liberty of comparing our picks (as long as your picks remained the same)...

1st sack (1)
1st penalty (1)
1st qrtr pts (1)
3rd qrtr pts (3)
least penalties (3)
most sacks (3)
most passing yds (3)
Pitt total yds (4)
GB total yds (4)
Last to score (3)

26 points up for grabs with the tiebreak going to me. As improbable as it may seem (with the number of things to guess), a tie is possible. Hitting all the 3s and getting a 1 pointer would create a tie...both 4s, a 3 and 2 2s would do it as well.

Bottom line, the first to 14 points in the categories listed above wins!!!!

 

[Rael]

Commish,

Once again - best of luck to you today!!! Wish I could watch the whole game, but real life intrudes...

I see our match up as going either way. I have taken the liberty of comparing our picks (as long as your picks remained the same)...

1st sack (1)
1st penalty (1)
1st qrtr pts (1)
3rd qrtr pts (3)
least penalties (3)
most sacks (3)
most passing yds (3)
Pitt total yds (4)
GB total yds (4)
Last to score (3)

26 points up for grabs with the tiebreak going to me. As improbable as it may seem (with the number of things to guess), a tie is possible. Hitting all the 3s and getting a 1 pointer would create a tie...both 4s, a 3 and 2 2s would do it as well.

Bottom line, the first to 14 points in the categories listed above wins!!!!

Thanks for digging into it to come up with the 1st 14 in our competing categories. I started to try and get ahead with the outcomes, but there were just too many. I'll be watching and documenting each scoring event. Sorry you can't be here doing the same throughout the game. G'luck.