Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — the traditionally Democratic states forming the so-called Blue Wall that Trump captured in 2016 — are tilting toward Democratic nominee Joe Biden, polling averages
show. Biden will win the White House if he recaptures that trio and doesn’t lose any
states that went Democratic four years ago.
All three states are suffering more severe economic strain than the rest of the country. “Across the industrial belt from Wisconsin to Pennsylvania, private job growth from the first three months of 2017 through the first three months of 2020 lagged the rest of the country — with employment in Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio growing 2% or less over that time compared to a 4.5% national average,” a Reuters analysis
finds.
And counties in Midwestern swing states that took a chance on Trump after backing President Obama in 2008 and 2012 are faring worse. An analysis by the Economic Innovation Group finds that
of those counties in the region that flipped to Trump, “61% are in relative economic decline. Nearly all the rest have increased their economic well-being since 2000.”
The forces weighing on the region predate Trump, but the president’s trade wars have also exacerbated pain for the farmers and manufacturers that make up key engines of the local economies.
