What reviving Cold War will end up costing us

[Nonno]

Barnett: What reviving Cold War will end up costing us : Columnists : Knoxville News Sentinel

The West's re-demonization of Russia is in full swing, with aging advocates barely able to conceal their glee in resurrecting the "good old days." It's a sad commentary on our grand strategic thinking that we so blithely add back the Cold War to our already full plate of global security interests.
We were tapped before Russia and Georgia went at it: Witness President Bush's efforts to "sue for peace" with every rogue regime out there. Now we're making ourselves more strategically irrelevant than ever because a military superpower that takes on all to defend all is too easily exhausted and thus more feasibly defeated by smaller powers.
Osama bin Laden must be laughing all the way to his cave tonight. Nothing suits his long-term interests better than renewed East-West tension. When the next 9/11 happens, and the inevitable questions arise, it won't be enough to say, "But we were busy making the Caucasus safe from Russian imperialism."

 

[Larry Gude]

*lol*

It was great for us last time. I don't get this.

 

[edinsomd]

Better question, "What reviving the Cold War will cost the Russians?" It cost them plenty last time. Bring it, Ivan.
Ed

 

[wintersprings]

Better question, "What reviving the Cold War will cost the Russians?" It cost them plenty last time. Bring it, Ivan.
Ed

yes, but did nonno even read his own post? But then again he lost his credability long ago...

 

[ylexot]

My question is, what is the cost of not reviving the Cold War? Like that communism Nonno?

 

[wintersprings]

My question is, what is the cost of not reviving the Cold War? Like that communism Nonno?

but that answer is to easy...just drive through old eastern europe. You will see your answer.

 

[Larry Gude]

This...

...really is an interesting concept, a new cold war.

Follow me, here. First time around, we had the Soviet Union of Lenin and Stalin, the idealist followed by the brutality, the brains followed by the brawn.

It is, was, obviously, very difficult to get a population to pitch in and succeed as a whole when we're talking complex things that require a great deal of independence and, well, freedom, to make it happen when the people, the population are basically peasants with peasant mindsets. So, you make 'em and you get the results of the Soviet era; things that worked in a rudimentary fashion that relied on shear numbers as much as tools.

Now, obviously, the Soviet model did not have the staying power to handle a cold war. The could have fought us in a real one, but not a theoretical one that required nuance, technology over muscle, and the constant evolution that is the hallmark of free people.

Now, for the last 20 years the old USSR has been torn asunder, dissolved, broken up and recovered due to good old fashioned entrepreneurial spirit coupled with forceful personalities, the very recipe of our industrial age; individuals did big things and prospered from it.

So, will a Soviet renaissance have the advantage of being democratic this time in nature? Will there be numerous 'kings' within the society agreeing on who is the president? Will there be a new openness and decentralization of the government? Or will old habits of suspicion and force reemerge?

Maybe there are enough people with vested interests to start relying on the people, as whole, to be part of the system, with their own interests and futures valued?

Maybe this could be a good thing for us all? Maybe a VERY Westernized 'bear' would make a wonderful rival for the dragon?

Lot going on here.

 

[kwillia]

We must remember one disadvantage for us... Russia has spent the past decade making bank while we've been dumping a brazillion dollars into overseas affairs.

 

[SamSpade]

I won't even pretend to suggest I know all about Russia, but from my numerous conversations and time spent there, I do know one thing - they don't want communism again. They hate it. They really hated it THEN, but they endured it and even supported it, because it was a kind of national pride. I don't know how many times I saw or heard Russians say something like "at least it's not as bad as under Communism" or to actually criticize a new magistrate "he's even worse than when it was communist!". When I asked why there were so MANY people working as service personnel or even so many cashiers in stores where there were absolutely no lines, I was told "we're never going to stand in long lines again. Never".

What they miss is the sense of a world power - there was the United States, inarguably the world power - and then the Soviet Union. Europe, China, the rest of the world may not want to regard them as equals, but with their military and nuclear arsenal, nobody wanted to argue with them. They miss the respect and awe that THAT used to command.

This is just my opinion - but I get the impression they think the world doesn't respect them as much as they ought to. In their mind, they won WW2 all by themselves, and close scrutiny of the battle lines, the deaths, the scale of battle and the loss of civilian lives both among the Russians and the Slavic peoples - that's hard to dispute. Again, my opinion, but they're like the 300-lb "little" brother no one will play with but dare not upset. It bothers them they don't get the respect of the Western world.

They also suffer from a justifiable but mild paranoia. The United States has two large oceans and two mostly friendly neighbors. Russia is mostly bordered by enemies or nations not too happy with them, and the last thing they want is a nation like Ukraine, Poland or Georgia having missiles pointed BACK at them. These were nations that were either part of the Soviet Union or formed a buffer against the world. Try to imagine how you'd feel if southern California and south Florida separated, became Spanish speaking nations - and Russia decided to ARM them.

I think Russia can be dealt with diplomatically, because the people don't want what it used to be, but antagonism may leave them feeling they have no choice.

 

[Larry Gude]

Good...

I
I think Russia can be dealt with diplomatically, because the people don't want what it used to be, but antagonism may leave them feeling they have no choice.

...post, Sam, really good!

The Clinton admin sat there and watched them drift for eight years. Bush has added eight more to the list. We should be seeking these people out. We should be looking for economic bonds. We should be taking advantage, for our interests, of the opportunity to be pals.

Hopefully, the next admin will grab them and pull them up on the stage and ask, before the world, how they think Iran's nuclear emergence should be handled. Make them partners. Get them in the game on friendly terms.

 

[Pushrod]

I think Russia can be dealt with diplomatically, because the people don't want what it used to be, but antagonism may leave them feeling they have no choice.

Very astute observations Sam. I think we have been handling Russia very uncouthly since the fall of the Soviet Union. We've treated them like a 3rd world ####hole and offered very little respect to them as a nation. I would have liked to see them become a brotherhood with the USA in leading and policing the world (even though I don't agree with us doing that), adopt a Constitution that mirrored ours. I think that could have been done if our leadership in the past couple of decades had had any foresight. A strong Russia as a strong ally would have been great for us and them.
But we left them kicked to the side of the road after the fall of communism and gloated over it. We missed our chance and built a lot of resentment in the Russian government towards us.
I don't know if there is still a way to salvage our relationship, I hope there is. Putting our faith and trust in China instead is going to cost us big time down the road as I believe that at some point China WILL go to war with us. I sure would like to have a strong Russia on our side when that event does occur.

 

[Larry Gude]

See...

I would have liked to see them become a brotherhood with the USA in leading and policing the world (even though I don't agree with us doing that), adopt a Constitution that mirrored ours. I think that could have been done if our leadership in the past couple of decades had had any foresight.

...I don't think you can do too much too soon. The evil empire pretty much fell in '89. There is time needed for them to transition from being the bogeyman to a potential ally. It takes time to heal old wounds and it takes time for them to even start to figure out who they are and want they wanna become.

NOW is the time for engagement. NOW is the time to be respectful and invite them to parties and hang out a bit.

 

[PsyOps]

I won't even pretend to suggest I know all about Russia, but from my numerous conversations and time spent there, I do know one thing - they don't want communism again. They hate it. They really hated it THEN, but they endured it and even supported it, because it was a kind of national pride. I don't know how many times I saw or heard Russians say something like "at least it's not as bad as under Communism" or to actually criticize a new magistrate "he's even worse than when it was communist!". When I asked why there were so MANY people working as service personnel or even so many cashiers in stores where there were absolutely no lines, I was told "we're never going to stand in long lines again. Never".

What they miss is the sense of a world power - there was the United States, inarguably the world power - and then the Soviet Union. Europe, China, the rest of the world may not want to regard them as equals, but with their military and nuclear arsenal, nobody wanted to argue with them. They miss the respect and awe that THAT used to command.

This is just my opinion - but I get the impression they think the world doesn't respect them as much as they ought to. In their mind, they won WW2 all by themselves, and close scrutiny of the battle lines, the deaths, the scale of battle and the loss of civilian lives both among the Russians and the Slavic peoples - that's hard to dispute. Again, my opinion, but they're like the 300-lb "little" brother no one will play with but dare not upset. It bothers them they don't get the respect of the Western world.

They also suffer from a justifiable but mild paranoia. The United States has two large oceans and two mostly friendly neighbors. Russia is mostly bordered by enemies or nations not too happy with them, and the last thing they want is a nation like Ukraine, Poland or Georgia having missiles pointed BACK at them. These were nations that were either part of the Soviet Union or formed a buffer against the world. Try to imagine how you'd feel if southern California and south Florida separated, became Spanish speaking nations - and Russia decided to ARM them.

I think Russia can be dealt with diplomatically, because the people don't want what it used to be, but antagonism may leave them feeling they have no choice.

The only thing I'd add is Russia feels the former Soviet block nations still belong to them.

 

[SamSpade]

The only thing I'd add is Russia feels the former Soviet block nations still belong to them.

As far as I could ever tell - mainly Ukraine. Possibly Belarus and to a lesser extent, the Baltic states - Europe. A lot of the other republics are largely people by persons not Russian. They don't feel a lot of cultural or historical ties to them, like they do to the European nations.

 

[PsyOps]

As far as I could ever tell - mainly Ukraine. Possibly Belarus and to a lesser extent, the Baltic states - Europe. A lot of the other republics are largely people by persons not Russian. They don't feel a lot of cultural or historical ties to them, like they do to the European nations.

I was speaking more in governmental terms. The people have very little say in the matter; at least so it would seem.

And there is a large part of me that realizes that a conspiracy exists that Russia not only has they been waiting for this opportunity of US social and economic decline and military dilution to take these countries back, but they actually covertly created the circumstances that provided them this advantage.

"We will take America without firing a shot.......We will BURY YOU! We can't expect the American People to jump from Capitalism to Communism, but we can assist their elected leaders in giving them small doses of Socialism, until they awaken one day to find that they have Communism."… Khrushchev

 

[SamSpade]

I was speaking more in governmental terms. The people have very little say in the matter; at least so it would seem.

And there is a large part of me that realizes that a conspiracy exists that Russia not only has they been waiting for this opportunity of US social and economic decline and military dilution to take these countries back, but they actually covertly created the circumstances that provided them this advantage.

I don't see it. To me it's like us losing Puerto Rico, and itching to get it back. Americans wouldn't bother. Ukrainians are to Russians what Austrians are to Germans. But the other republics in the former Soviet Union are full of Uzbeks, and Kazakhs and so on. If we lost North Dakota, would you fight to get it back? Who cares?

 

[PsyOps]

I don't see it. To me it's like us losing Puerto Rico, and itching to get it back. Americans wouldn't bother. Ukrainians are to Russians what Austrians are to Germans. But the other republics in the former Soviet Union are full of Uzbeks, and Kazakhs and so on. If we lost North Dakota, would you fight to get it back? Who cares?

It goes back to what you wrote here:

What they miss is the sense of a world power...

The largest part of this equation are those countries which defined their power... the USSR.

 

[Larry Gude]

I don't...

If we lost North Dakota, would you fight to get it back? Who cares?

...know if you meant to make that point or not, but yeah, like some of the territory the Rooskies are interested in, resources are part of the equation.

There's oil in them thar hills! So, yes, we'd fight to get it back. Assuming we ever lost it. Plus, I don't know that ND wants out if given the chance.

Now, if we could just get California to secede and rejoin Mexico...


Spelling corrected for the terminally picky

 

[PsyOps]

...know if you meant to make that point or not, but yeah, like some of the territory the Rooskies are interested in, resources are part of the equation.

There's oil in them thar hills! So, yes, we'd fight to get it back. Assuming we ever lost it. Plus, I don't know that ND wants out if given the chance.

Now, if we could just get California to succeed and rejoin Mexico...

secede

 

[Larry Gude]

Hey...

secede

...it was just an improvisation.