What reviving Cold War will end up costing us

[PsyOps]

...it was just an improvisation.

You seem to be getting it. There's hope for you yet.

 

[SamSpade]

There's oil in them thar hills! So, yes, we'd fight to get it back. Assuming we ever lost it. Plus, I don't know that ND wants out if given the chance.

Most of the good stuff is already IN Russia. World's largest reserves of natural gas, by far. Kazakhstan has about as much oil as the U.S. although they have decent reserves of uranium. All the others - well, they kinda suck.

Russia itself has enormous resources, most of it still untapped in Siberia.

 

[Larry Gude]

Yeah...

Most of the good stuff is already IN Russia. World's largest reserves of natural gas, by far. Kazakhstan has about as much oil as the U.S. although they have decent reserves of uranium. All the others - well, they kinda suck.

Russia itself has enormous resources, most of it still untapped in Siberia.

...but not all resources are in the ground. Georgia is a strategic location.

 

[PsyOps]

Most of the good stuff is already IN Russia. World's largest reserves of natural gas, by far. Kazakhstan has about as much oil as the U.S. although they have decent reserves of uranium. All the others - well, they kinda suck.

Russia itself has enormous resources, most of it still untapped in Siberia.

Then this demands the question... why invade Georgia? McCain guesses (and many believe) a resurgent Russian Empire.

 

[SamSpade]

Then this demands the question... why invade Georgia? McCain guesses (and many believe) a resurgent Russian Empire.

It has a lot to do with how you view the conflict. When Georgia became independent, both South Ossetia and Abkhazia wanted out - and Georgians wouldn't let them. They've had referenda on the matter - and overwhelmingly voted in favor (in the mid-90's). Georgia sent thugs.

I've read accounts from Russians online now about brutality over the last 17 years where Georgians have erased some villages completely. One guy I read talked about some of them in detail from personal experience. (Admittedly, these are from forums on adoption, but they were detailed). So the picture I get is - Georgia is a punk state run by former communists who won't allow independence from Ossetians and Abkhazians, whom they respect about as much as gypsies.

Russia may have their own opinions, but they favor independence for these regions. They sent in their own troops and peacekeepers. And a month ago, the Georgians killed them, shot down their planes and poured troops into the region. So the Russians attacked - they poured everything in, broke their ability to wage war by attacking their infrastructure and cut them off at the Black Sea.

This is a massive oversimplification of the matter, but the Russian view of it is, stopping the genocide the Georgians have been perpetrating for the last 20 years (because it pre-dates 1991).

Try to imagine this scenario. South Florida breaks away from the United States. They speak Spanish and they take Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa - the whole shootin' match. North Florida and the panhandle, which isn't so much Latino, says no way, we're becoming independent. So rather than send their troops, South Florida sends gangs and hoodlums to burn the northern towns to nothing, beat up their citizens and set themselves up there. After years of this, the remaining United States sends troops to stop the violence. Peacekeepers. The gangs kill the US peacekeepers and start attacking, because they now have the help of foreign governments, and the US will do nothing. The US invades, and the rest of world wags its finger at them, because "they just want Florida back".

I don't see Russia as the bad guy here, except they used excessive force and signed cease-fires they had no intention of keeping. They've withdrawn because they've accomplished their mission, and I fully expect they'll keep troops in South Ossetia and Abkhazia (Georgia) as before, except in greater numbers.

This is a problem that could have been resolved a lot better without calling the Russians a bunch of imperialistic greedheads.

 

[Larry Gude]

That's...

It
This is a problem that could have been resolved a lot better without calling the Russians a bunch of imperialistic greedheads.

...right.

Bush, to his credit, hasn't worsened things. McCain, to his discredit, should have kept his thoughts a good bit more...presidential and Obama should have made one more trip to the Ouija board before giving his final answer.

 

[PsyOps]

It has a lot to do with how you view the conflict. When Georgia became independent, both South Ossetia and Abkhazia wanted out - and Georgians wouldn't let them. They've had referenda on the matter - and overwhelmingly voted in favor (in the mid-90's). Georgia sent thugs.

I've read accounts from Russians online now about brutality over the last 17 years where Georgians have erased some villages completely. One guy I read talked about some of them in detail from personal experience. (Admittedly, these are from forums on adoption, but they were detailed). So the picture I get is - Georgia is a punk state run by former communists who won't allow independence from Ossetians and Abkhazians, whom they respect about as much as gypsies.

Russia may have their own opinions, but they favor independence for these regions. They sent in their own troops and peacekeepers. And a month ago, the Georgians killed them, shot down their planes and poured troops into the region. So the Russians attacked - they poured everything in, broke their ability to wage war by attacking their infrastructure and cut them off at the Black Sea.

This is a massive oversimplification of the matter, but the Russian view of it is, stopping the genocide the Georgians have been perpetrating for the last 20 years (because it pre-dates 1991).

Try to imagine this scenario. South Florida breaks away from the United States. They speak Spanish and they take Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa - the whole shootin' match. North Florida and the panhandle, which isn't so much Latino, says no way, we're becoming independent. So rather than send their troops, South Florida sends gangs and hoodlums to burn the northern towns to nothing, beat up their citizens and set themselves up there. After years of this, the remaining United States sends troops to stop the violence. Peacekeepers. The gangs kill the US peacekeepers and start attacking, because they now have the help of foreign governments, and the US will do nothing. The US invades, and the rest of world wags its finger at them, because "they just want Florida back".

I don't see Russia as the bad guy here, except they used excessive force and signed cease-fires they had no intention of keeping. They've withdrawn because they've accomplished their mission, and I fully expect they'll keep troops in South Ossetia and Abkhazia (Georgia) as before, except in greater numbers.

This is a problem that could have been resolved a lot better without calling the Russians a bunch of imperialistic greedheads.

It'll be interesting to see how your take on this gets reported, as it hasn't yet. This has virtually been universally condemned as an act of aggression rather than humanitarian.

 

[Larry Gude]

Well...

It'll be interesting to see how your take on this gets reported, as it hasn't yet. This has virtually been universally condemned as an act of aggression rather than humanitarian.

...the story has certainly been sanitized since the first couple of days. I heard and read numerous reports how the locals, like 70%, considered themselves Russian.

 

[PsyOps]

This is a problem that could have been resolved a lot better without calling the Russians a bunch of imperialistic greedheads.

Define resolved.

This almost makes it sound like we instigated the Russians into this.

 

[Larry Gude]

I think...

Define resolved.

This almost makes it sound like we instigated the Russians into this.

...what Sam is saying and what my view is, is that we should be embracing the Russians. What possible good does the US accrue from being in the middle of some push to get Georgia, a rather dubious place to begin with, into NATO? Where is our national interest in not getting along with Russia? I can think of several reasons to get along with them.

This thing could have been played that the Georgians went to far and provoked Russian humanitarian intervention and that, while we're not happy with any bloodshed, we hope a peaceful resolution would be reached fairly and swiftly.

It sounds really, really stupid us telling anyone to not be using force, especially when it's on their damn border and not 1/2 way to the moon.

 

[SamSpade]

Define resolved.

This almost makes it sound like we instigated the Russians into this.

I don't think so, but the consequences we may reap will be. Was there some kind of rush to get a missile deal with Poland?

I mean, consider. Georgia is a tiny nation about the size of South Carolina with no really significant value that I can find. It has the total population of about the DC metro area. About the only significant thing about it that I know of is that damned pipeline through their country, and that's about it, and it's not as though it's the only pipeline the Russians can exploit. Frankly, taking over Georgia, for the Russians would be like us taking Nova Scotia. Why bother?

As far as I can tell, the Russians were more than likely to pull back and do exactly what they're doing now; mission accomplished. Admittedly I don't know why they'd bother to sign two cease-fires and ignore them completely. But we've seriously pissed them off now with our comments about a renewed Cold War. They're unlikely to do anything else, but they may get cozy with Cuba again primarily because of this, and Poland.