when will the bottom fall out of the housing market?

C

Cabbage

New Member
We moved here one year ago, and the housing market has literally gotten CRAZY.

I mean it reminds me of the hysteria in the late 80's in southern California right before the bottom fell out there.

We bought a spec home in Saint Leonard 12/02. It had quite a few upgrades - but was not anything super-special. It was available and served our needs comfortably and was at the top of our price-range (slightly less than 300K) at the time.

Now we're having real estate agents peruse our neighborhoods all the time, hoping to find sellers. We've been told our home would sell for at least $50K more today.

But the housing market is crazy. Last year we thought it was tough, with little available, and now it's insane.

I have heard more people are moving in, looking for homes in southern Calvert and central Calvert...

"Supposedly" agents have dozens of qualified buyers on lists, waiting for properties ....
 
CMC122

CMC122

Go Braves!
My aunt is an agent over there. She said it is absolutely crazy. The offer wars are incredible she says. Some people are getting $50k more than their asking price!!
 
jazz lady

jazz lady

~*~ Rara Avis ~*~
PREMO Member
"As the base goes, so goes St. Mary's County" is one way to look at it. I think a large part of it depends on what happens at Pax for BRAC '05. The potential for a large influx of new programs and additional personnel is great, but it all depends on how well Pax is sold and marketed as the place for these programs.

We already know some of the programs are coming here. It's a question as to what else will we gain versus what will be lost. I personally think Pax is in a great position and will come out this latest round of base closings with a net increase, so the house market is going to continue very strong for the foreseeable future.
 
B

baswm

Guest
Your right. Pax is bring a lot more people into the area. People wanting to get out of the high crime areas of PG county and DC are moving into Calvert. Builders have customers lined up but cannot find land to build on that the customer thinks is reasonable.
I am glad I bought my lot when I did. With Lusby growing leaps and bounds (pax business park and new shopping centers), IF I don't build on my lot, I can sell it and make a good profit.:cheers:
 
huntr1

huntr1

.
Our house went up 40K last year, and my buddy just bought a place off 228 that the previous owners bought 2 years before for 100K less.
 
frogger

frogger

New Member
Do any of you know who is actually coming to Pax? I heard Naval Surface Warfare in Dahlgren might close, which could mean they would come here. Any definites?
 
ceo_pte

ceo_pte

New Member
Originally posted by Cabbage
We moved here one year ago, and the housing market has literally gotten CRAZY.

I mean it reminds me of the hysteria in the late 80's in southern California right before the bottom fell out there.

We bought a spec home in Saint Leonard 12/02. It had quite a few upgrades - but was not anything super-special. It was available and served our needs comfortably and was at the top of our price-range (slightly less than 300K) at the time.

Now we're having real estate agents peruse our neighborhoods all the time, hoping to find sellers. We've been told our home would sell for at least $50K more today.

But the housing market is crazy. Last year we thought it was tough, with little available, and now it's insane.

I have heard more people are moving in, looking for homes in southern Calvert and central Calvert...

"Supposedly" agents have dozens of qualified buyers on lists, waiting for properties ....
Click to expand...

I've been talking to my realtor and the house we bought about 7 months ago would resale today for nearly 30K more. We have done some upgrades too and they don't know about these. I may do a refinance to conventional in the next month or so and I will know for sure then. It's crazy, but the market is worse (i.e. harder to find a house) now than it was when we were looking. I don't see the market slowing down within the next year or so. My agent said the same thing about the lists. It's crazy.
 
ceo_pte

ceo_pte

New Member
Originally posted by frogger
Do any of you know who is actually coming to Pax? I heard Naval Surface Warfare in Dahlgren might close, which could mean they would come here. Any definites?
Click to expand...

This is an e-mail that I got about base closures. Of course, I know for a fact that some of these bases have been on the list before. I think this is an initial draft and whether or not they actually close will be determined later.


BASE CLOSURES FOR 2005
>
> BRAC List - Just off the Press
> Army bases currently proposed for closure or realignment in 2005
> include:
>
> * Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania
> * Detroit Arsenal, Michigan
> * Fort Belvoir, Virginia
> * Fort Buchanan, Puerto Rico
> * Fort McPherson/Gillem, Georgia
> * Fort Monmouth, New Jersey
> * Fort Monroe, Virginia
> * Fort Polk, Louisiana (to realign)
> * Fort Richardson, Alaska
> * Fort Sam Houston, Texas
> * Fort Shafter, Hawaii
> * Lima Army Tank Plant, Ohio
> * Natick Soldier Center, Massachusetts
> * Picatinny Arsenal, New Jersey
> * Redstone Arsenal, Alabama
> * Rock Island Arsenal, Illinois
> * Sierra Army Depot, California
> * Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona
>
> Air Force base closures and realignments include:
>
> * Altus AFB, Oklahoma
> * Beale AFB, California
> * Brooks AFB, Texas
> * Cannon AFB, New Mexico
> * Columbus AFB, Mississippi
> * Ellsworth AFB, South Dakota
> * Goodfellow AFB, Texas
> * Grand Forks AFB, North Dakota
> * Hanscom AFB, Massachusetts
> * Kirtland AFB, New Mexico
> * Los Angeles AFB, California
> * McConnell AFB, Kansas
> * Nellis AFB, Nevada (to realign)
> * Seymour Johnson AFB, North Carolina (to realign)
> * Shaw AFB, South Carolina
> * Vance AFB, Oklahoma
>
> The Air Force will lose 2,260 military and 2,839 civilian
> manpower positions, and 1,055 reserve drill authorizations next year,
> according to the 2004 force-structure announcement released July 23.
> Many bases, both active duty and reserve component, are affected by the
> realignment. In many
> cases, units will gain aircraft and missions, while others will pare
> down.
>
> Besides manpower reductions, the realignment formally announces the
> retirement of the C-9A Nightingale and KC-135E Stratotanker aircraft.
>
> According to Air Force officials, the 20 C-9s are being retired
> because of reduced-patient movement, range limitations and increasing
> maintenance and upgrade costs. The aeromedical-evacuation mission will
> become a requirements-based system using all passenger-capable aircraft.
>
>
> The service will retire 44 of the Air National Guard and Air
> Force Reserve Command's 43-year-old KC-135Es next year, replacing them
> with 24 KC-135Rs from the active-duty fleet. By the end of fiscal 2006,
> the Air Force will have retired 68 of the KC-135Es.
>
> Naval base closures and realignments include:
>
> * Ingleside Naval Station, Texas
> * Naval Postgraduate School, California
> * Naval Air Station Meridian, Mississippi
> * Naval Air Engineering Station Lakehurst, New Jersey
> * Naval Recreation Station Solomons Island,
> * Naval Surface Warfare Center Crane, Indiana
> * Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division, Virginia
> * Navy Supply Corps School, Georgia
> * New Orleans Naval Support Activity, Louisiana
> * Pascagoula Naval Station, Mississippi
> * Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, New Hampshire
> * Saratoga Springs Naval Support Unit, New York
>
> Marine base closures and realignments include:
>
> * Marine Corps Logistics Base Albany, Georgia
> * Marine Corps Logistics Base Barstow, California (realignment)
> * Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, California
> * Marine Corps Mountain Warfare School, California
> * Marine Reserve Support Unit, Kansas City
> * Marine Corps Recruit Depot San Diego, California (realign or close).
 
Vince

Vince

......
Originally posted by TripleJ
I'll be looking to buy a house in June, hopefully, it will by a buyer's market then:cheers:
Click to expand...
Definitely wouldn't hope for this. It hasn't been a buyers market around here for years now. Back in the late 80's early 90's there were homes up for sale everywhere, but you'd still pay a large price. Now you'd be lucky to find a home under 200,000. It has gotten crazy. And because of zoning changes for building and the lack of new developements housing is not going to get any better or cheaper. Good news for the sellers I guess.
 
ceo_pte

ceo_pte

New Member
Originally posted by Vince
Definitely wouldn't hope for this. It hasn't been a buyers market around here for years now. Back in the late 80's early 90's there were homes up for sale everywhere, but you'd still pay a large price. Now you'd be lucky to find a home under 200,000. It has gotten crazy. And because of zoning changes for building and the lack of new developements housing is not going to get any better or cheaper. Good news for the sellers I guess.
Click to expand...

Good news for the seller only if you are planning on moving somewhere else where the market is alot better. Like SC! My dad just bought 115 acres for about $1200.00 per acre. It's great down there. But of course it's hard for people to find a job that pays what they do here.
 
Vince

Vince

......
Originally posted by ceo_pte
Good news for the seller only if you are planning on moving somewhere else where the market is alot better. Like SC! My dad just bought 115 acres for about $1200.00 per acre. It's great down there. But of course it's hard for people to find a job that pays what they do here.
Click to expand...
Thinking of retiring down there or maybe Fla. But that's a long way off.
 
dustin

dustin

UAIOE
Originally posted by jazz lady
"As the base goes, so goes St. Mary's County" is one way to look at it. I think a large part of it depends on what happens at Pax for BRAC '05. The potential for a large influx of new programs and additional personnel is great, but it all depends on how well Pax is sold and marketed as the place for these programs.

We already know some of the programs are coming here. It's a question as to what else will we gain versus what will be lost. I personally think Pax is in a great position and will come out this latest round of base closings with a net increase, so the house market is going to continue very strong for the foreseeable future.
Click to expand...

I agree :yay: the economy here largely depends on the base. BRAC would be a heavy influence. Take for example the midwest area which had numerous Air Force base closures a few years back. Their economy has gone to the crapper and ghost towns have popped up.

This reminds me of all the complaints in the VA beach area about jet noise. If both Oceana and Norfolk closed, that whole area would go to peices. Same for Jacksonville, Corpus Christi, and Whidbey Island. Fortunatly they shouldnt have to worry about that since our forward momentum of cutting back expenses has come to closing bases and PUTTING ALL OUR EGGS IN ONE BASKET.....Pearl Harbor, Dec 7th, 1941 anyone?
 
ceo_pte

ceo_pte

New Member
Originally posted by Vince
Thinking of retiring down there or maybe Fla. But that's a long way off.
Click to expand...

A good place to live, seriously. A quality life for a small price. Not to mention you can start-up a mom & pops type business for little or nothing. We will be moving to the Charleston area within 7 years.
 
pixiegirl

pixiegirl

Cleopatra Jones
One of the major reasons we decided to stay in Indian Head for a year is because a developer just bought up a ton of land right down the river and they're putting in $500k townhomes. :crazy: But that'll only do wonders for our property value. :clap:
 
frogger

frogger

New Member
I think as the interest rates start to rise again...I'm guessing later part of the year, expensive homes (>$400k) may start to lose some value as the buyers will not be able to afford them. I don't think the bottom will fall out, however prices shouldn't go any higher. This area might be a different story, due to the high demand, but even that may cool with higher interest rates.
 
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