Economic outlook...PLAN NOW.

[Hessian]

There are elements of the economic reports that wizz by me and it takes a little while to digest. However, here are a few things that should jolt our fellow middle class citizens:
**Fuel prices will continue to edge up. The Dems blocked a chance to restore drilling permits and reopen the pipeline. Canada just reduced the number of drilling operations last month instead of expanding. Thus...heating your home & commuting will cost you more. Roll this down the road, and vacation spots will get hit with less RVs, boats and hotel stays.
*HELOCs and home buyers...rates just went up 25 basis points...meaning the interest you pay on a floating mortgage will cost you about 5% more next month. The Fed has been looking at the bond market and already has said more raises are on front of us...immediately (MAY)...thus expect another 5% jump and perhaps 10% higher interest rates by summer. Balloon mortgages linger, and those that have a floating rate MAY want to lock in immediately with 20 or 30 yr rates as they will climb.
*Our national debt is over 30 TRILLION and there is no plan to reverse that.
*Green incentives and initiatives will continue to cost American businesses more...which they MUST throw at consumers (yes higher prices)
*On the international front, the Putin war on Ukraine will severely cripple the grain exports to nations south of them (E Africa & Middle East). Food & Gas riots have erupted in Sri Lanka yesterday...attempting to storm the presidential palace. This may become far more common in 3rd world countries. The US cannot come up with a global stimulus plan to solve this crisis. No Marshall Plan on the way folks.
*So far 1,000,000 illegal invaders have swarmed our border since Jan 1...they are expecting humanitarian aid in housing, medical, food, education, and further needs. They bring NOTHING to our economy but blighted towns and more prisoners & mouths to feed. Biden looks on impassively with no clue how to stop this flow. Morale among the INS etc is low.
*Putin's assault on Ukraine could go sideways at any moment...are the Russians aware of the losses (perhaps) Will he escalate the use of weapons on the public (perhaps) Will NATO eventually get involved (No)...what kind of aid package is going to be put together to return 3.5 million refugees and destroyed cities IF the Russians pull back (Unknown)
*Expect food prices to steadily rise this year and thus less eating out,...more home-made & garden supplements. This is good for some,...but as we all know, gardening often costs MORE than actually store bought. (A bag of soil emoluments is ridiculously overpriced)
*COLA for social security recipients will NEVER match inflation,...so they will clean out savings, sell belongings, and go to the Dr less just to get by.

So...I think stagflation of the Carter years will return,...and even flipping the HR and having a majority in the senate will NOT turn around this mess unless they can override vetoes of the worthless wonder in the White house (who was IN politics during Carter's mess...and still doing nothing).

Further observations and ideas to survive the next few years are welcome.

 

[dave20]

Larry Kudlow of Fox Business said pretty much the same things you are yesterday. I was lucky during the period of stagflation when Carter was the president. I got a home loan with an 8.5 interest rate just before things went really crazy. Not long after that 30 year rates went to double digits. Back then there were a lot of people with ARM loans. As you said folks with those loans should really consider locking in a fixed rate loan very soon. I'm no financial expert but I have seen the effects of what is predicted to be coming our way, including getting to the gas station at 0300 on your assigned day to get fuel so you can get fuel and get to work, hopefully on time.

They won't tax their way out of this and hanging a millstone around the neck of the oil industry won't help either. Like the old adage says " When you find out you have dug yourself into a hole stop digging". Going green will happen with time but we need to develop more reliable sources of non fossil fuel energy while still taking advantage of the oil and gas we have an abundance of in this country. I don't have 60 grand to buy an electric vehicle with the addition of upgrading my electric service so I can charge the damn thing. I'm not sure but I don't think the government built gas stations for cars and trucks, so why are they going to get into the business of building charging stations.

One final thought. I haven't heard much if any talk about the impact of all these policies on the budgets of local governments. The added cost of fuel for government fleets will be significantly higher. Not to mention the cost to heating and cooling all the facilities whether buy fossil fuel or electricity.

 

[vraiblonde]

This country has survived economic and security devastation in the past. There was the Civil War, the Great Depression, WWs I and II, etc etc. I think it's like reading Revelation and equating it to what's going on in our world now: the author was coming from a position of where he was in 95AD or whenever.

None of this is anything new, it's just that now we're living through it and it's personal instead of history. You'd think we'd learn but we don't seem to.

 

[Hessian]

Vrai...the core problem is .....look at the run on TP and paper towels in March 2020--it was irrational.
People think in the immediacy and then act like loons.
Yes we have the experience, and the outlook, and the savvy investing...but we still will become victims of the lunatics who can't plan ahead. AND can't vote for people who do have a strategy.
People who learn...and plan, become the victims of masses who don't.

 

[vraiblonde]

Vrai...the core problem is .....look at the run on TP and paper towels in March 2020--it was irrational.
People think in the immediacy and then act like loons.
Yes we have the experience, and the outlook, and the savvy investing...but we still will become victims of the lunatics who can't plan ahead. AND can't vote for people who do have a strategy.
People who learn...and plan, become the victims of masses who don't.

^Truth^, but haven't we always been held hostage by the LCD?

(you can skip this part: )
Here in PCB there was a BLM riot last weekend - the Walmart got looted, there were shootings, general mayhem and lawlessness. Yesterday there was a town meeting to address the issue going forward, even though the problem was identified and quashed fairly efficiently and the only person injured was one of the rioters who shot his own damn self ( ). People are all like, "Oh, they should shut down the roads into the city and search everyone trying to enter!!" And more than one person said that - there were several at the meeting and a ton more following the live stream on FB.

Never mind that it was an isolated incident and the Mayor was like, "Go get 'em, boys!" calling in reinforcements and taking the gloves off the cops. Hysteria has always taken precedence over measured response. Saturday night was prom night for one of the schools, and it was inconvenienced by the violence and police response. Someone's precious snowflake had to wait an extra 10 minutes for Mommy to pick him up. So they all want to bitch at cops for the incident happening, not the school for scheduling their prom right smack in the middle of Spring Break, which is always a CF. And I have no doubt prom will be in the middle of the chaos next year as well.

They griped that the city didn't notify anyone and they had no idea there was a problem.....yet there were news stories (both local and national), it was all over social media in every official city page AND the tourism ones, it was on the radio, sirens were going off, the police scanner was going crazy... at some point people have to be responsible for being aware of their surroundings. Short of cops knocking on each and every door, I'm not sure what else they could have done.

(resume reading: )
9/11; covid; and every other emergency situation - there is a vocal minority who want to respond with something ridiculous, dumb, and potentially harmful, and they get the ear of government because they're loud. There are also those who are apathetic and are only vaguely aware something is occurring. Then there are the handful who see it coming a mile away and take steps to protect themselves not only from the situation, but from the latter two groups.

So you're definitely right, but it's always been this way. We have always been at the mercy of the dumbasses and hysterics. And we've always turned out fine because of the lucid, practical minority. The dumbasses and hysterics, you can't tell them anything anyway so there's no sense in trying.

 

[GURPS]

None of this is anything new, it's just that now we're living through it and it's personal instead of history.

Not like this .. countries are moving away from PetroDollars ... this will be devastating

Think Zimbabwe level inflation

 

[LightRoasted]

If I may ...

Not like this .. countries are moving away from PetroDollars ... this will be devastating

Think Zimbabwe level inflation

What this means is this .... if all nations stop using the dollar for energy trades, the only reason they maintain dollar reserves to begin with, well, where else is the US dollar good? The US dollar is only good here. So, all those trillions, China itself holding over $3.1 trillion, will come flooding back here to every sector in the form of these nations buying everything they can with the reserves they have. This will result in hyper-hyper-inflation and a total failure and crashing of the entire financial system. Kinda like an end of days scenario.

Everyone would be well advised to pay attention to every geopolitical event and try to understand their implications. In the game of chess, the US has been "checked". We are running out of moves and soon, it will be checkmate. Game over. Plan accordingly.

 

[Susan54]

There are elements of the economic reports that wizz by me and it takes a little while to digest. However, here are a few things that should jolt our fellow middle class citizens:
**Fuel prices will continue to edge up. The Dems blocked a chance to restore drilling permits and reopen the pipeline. Canada just reduced the number of drilling operations last month instead of expanding. Thus...heating your home & commuting will cost you more. Roll this down the road, and vacation spots will get hit with less RVs, boats and hotel stays.
*HELOCs and home buyers...rates just went up 25 basis points...meaning the interest you pay on a floating mortgage will cost you about 5% more next month. The Fed has been looking at the bond market and already has said more raises are on front of us...immediately (MAY)...thus expect another 5% jump and perhaps 10% higher interest rates by summer. Balloon mortgages linger, and those that have a floating rate MAY want to lock in immediately with 20 or 30 yr rates as they will climb.
*Our national debt is over 30 TRILLION and there is no plan to reverse that.
*Green incentives and initiatives will continue to cost American businesses more...which they MUST throw at consumers (yes higher prices)
*On the international front, the Putin war on Ukraine will severely cripple the grain exports to nations south of them (E Africa & Middle East). Food & Gas riots have erupted in Sri Lanka yesterday...attempting to storm the presidential palace. This may become far more common in 3rd world countries. The US cannot come up with a global stimulus plan to solve this crisis. No Marshall Plan on the way folks.
*So far 1,000,000 illegal invaders have swarmed our border since Jan 1...they are expecting humanitarian aid in housing, medical, food, education, and further needs. They bring NOTHING to our economy but blighted towns and more prisoners & mouths to feed. Biden looks on impassively with no clue how to stop this flow. Morale among the INS etc is low.
*Putin's assault on Ukraine could go sideways at any moment...are the Russians aware of the losses (perhaps) Will he escalate the use of weapons on the public (perhaps) Will NATO eventually get involved (No)...what kind of aid package is going to be put together to return 3.5 million refugees and destroyed cities IF the Russians pull back (Unknown)
*Expect food prices to steadily rise this year and thus less eating out,...more home-made & garden supplements. This is good for some,...but as we all know, gardening often costs MORE than actually store bought. (A bag of soil emoluments is ridiculously overpriced)
*COLA for social security recipients will NEVER match inflation,...so they will clean out savings, sell belongings, and go to the Dr less just to get by.

So...I think stagflation of the Carter years will return,...and even flipping the HR and having a majority in the senate will NOT turn around this mess unless they can override vetoes of the worthless wonder in the White house (who was IN politics during Carter's mess...and still doing nothing).

Further observations and ideas to survive the next few years are welcome.

Omg, this is terrifying, what will the S&P do?

 

[Hessian]

As predicted,..the 2022 S&P and Dow faltered. The Fed continued to raise rates, and our annuities lost tens of thousands of dollars. It has taken 18 months to finally eclipse where we were back in the prosperity days of Mr Trump.
Now,...with Ukraine sitting as a quagmire,...and the economy hoping for the Fed to finally LOWER their rates...and foreign oil being brought in (instead of pumping our own)...we have reached a brief stability which the markets favor. Dems want this because they are hoping the stupid millions of voters will think that "Build Back Better" is actually working....its not.
We can breathe a sigh of relief that a split congress halted more of Lunchbox Joes progressive GREEN agenda and now...we watch for tax hikes to compensate for massive Federal $$ wasted on his dull-witted stimulus efforts.

 

[HemiHauler]

As predicted,..the 2022 S&P and Dow faltered. The Fed continued to raise rates, and our annuities lost tens of thousands of dollars. It has taken 18 months to finally eclipse where we were back in the prosperity days of Mr Trump.
Now,...with Ukraine sitting as a quagmire,...and the economy hoping for the Fed to finally LOWER their rates...and foreign oil being brought in (instead of pumping our own)...we have reached a brief stability which the markets favor. Dems want this because they are hoping the stupid millions of voters will think that "Build Back Better" is actually working....its not.
We can breathe a sigh of relief that a split congress halted more of Lunchbox Joes progressive GREEN agenda and now...we watch for tax hikes to compensate for massive Federal $$ wasted on his dull-witted stimulus efforts.

Yea dude. We are extracting record amounts of oil. When you can’t even get basic facts straight, the rest of your screed can be safely ignored.

U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)

Furthermore, interest rates need to be high — for a very long time. This idea that we are entitled to cheap money forever is just stupid.

 

[Hessian]

Interesting that you cheer policies that utterly cripple home ownership...and thus the entire industry reliant on families building capital. What other disastrous policies do you find exciting? Extreme debt? Devalued currency? 80% tax rates? Stagflation?...please share your insights...

 

[vraiblonde]

It's interesting that for all their so-called education, our political leaders clearly failed World History or they'd know that tyranny and subjugation of the people rarely ends well for them. Historically, Asians and Africans love their dictators but white and Hispanic people won't tolerate that sh*t for long. Even the freaking French rose up and executed their oppressors.

I hope with all my heart that if Trump is elected in November he goes full tilt boogie after these people. They're unruly children running amok and causing chaos, and it's time to grab them and spank their asses like they deserve. Democrats whine all day about how oh Trump is going to do this or that . Oh, you mean like YOU'VE been doing??

I hope he lays the smack down on them. I want their heads in the guillotine, either figuratively or literally. Sh*t needs to stop.

 

[Blister]

If I may ...


What this means is this .... if all nations stop using the dollar for energy trades, the only reason they maintain dollar reserves to begin with, well, where else is the US dollar good? The US dollar is only good here. So, all those trillions, China itself holding over $3.1 trillion, will come flooding back here to every sector in the form of these nations buying everything they can with the reserves they have. This will result in hyper-hyper-inflation and a total failure and crashing of the entire financial system. Kinda like an end of days scenario.

Everyone would be well advised to pay attention to every geopolitical event and try to understand their implications. In the game of chess, the US has been "checked". We are running out of moves and soon, it will be checkmate. Game over. Plan accordingly.

[IMG alt="PJay"]https://forums.somd.com/data/avatars/s/6/6142.jpg?1675704283[/IMG]

If you know, you know​

 

[vraiblonde]

Interesting that you cheer policies that utterly cripple home ownership...and thus the entire industry reliant on families building capital. What other disastrous policies do you find exciting? Extreme debt? Devalued currency? 80% tax rates? Stagflation?...please share your insights...

Hemi is a not very bright chaos merchant. Note his posts on here - merely combative and not insightful or intelligent in any meaningful way. Something is going on in his psyche that makes him hate and he's not smart enough to realize he'll be going down too. Or maybe he doesn't care - self-immolation and all.

If you get on Reddit you see a LOT of people who are mentally ill and their lives are a self-made catastrophe. Rather than put forth the effort to improve their situation, they lay around and seethe with hatred toward anyone who makes good choices and reaps the benefit.

You cannot convince them that devastation will affect them as well because they don't care. The world is their enemy and they will gladly give their own life to cause misery to someone else.

 

[SamSpade]

Interesting that you cheer policies that utterly cripple home ownership...and thus the entire industry reliant on families building capital. What other disastrous policies do you find exciting? Extreme debt? Devalued currency? 80% tax rates? Stagflation?...please share your insights...

It's definitely going to put the kibosh on my retirement plans. I hate continuing the upkeep of this old house, but I can't afford to move. Even into a much smaller house. MY house just isn't increasing much in value, and interest rates are too high to buy -

OR sell. No one wants to buy MY "family-friendly" home.

Unless there's a way to allow interest rates to be lower for home purchase only - I don't see a way around it. Hemi is at least right that interest rates have been way too low for far too long - but it's choking home sales and killing people carrying lots of debt.

 

[HemiHauler]

Interesting that you cheer policies that utterly cripple home ownership...and thus the entire industry reliant on families building capital. What other disastrous policies do you find exciting? Extreme debt? Devalued currency? 80% tax rates? Stagflation?...please share your insights...

If you take facing reality as “cheering” that is on you.

Home ownership is not and will not be crippled. High rates depress demand, which brings housing prices back to reality.

Look at it this way: you can have cheap money and high house prices. Or expensive money and more sensible house prices. In other words, equilibrium.

I’m sure I don’t need to remind you of the problems cheap money fueling asset bubbles has caused in very recent history.

This notion that consumers are entitled to cheap money in perpetuity is just plain stupid.

 

[Susan54]

It's interesting that for all their so-called education, our political leaders clearly failed World History or they'd know that tyranny and subjugation of the people rarely ends well for them. Historically, Asians and Africans love their dictators but white and Hispanic people won't tolerate that sh*t for long. Even the freaking French rose up and executed their oppressors.

I hope with all my heart that if Trump is elected in November he goes full tilt boogie after these people. They're unruly children running amok and causing chaos, and it's time to grab them and spank their asses like they deserve. Democrats whine all day about how oh Trump is going to do this or that . Oh, you mean like YOU'VE been doing??

I hope he lays the smack down on them. I want their heads in the guillotine, either figuratively or literally. Sh*t needs to stop.

Yep, revenge. This is why Trump hasn’t expanded his base one iota.

You want mass murder of fellow Americans, you’ve said it multiple times.

It took Joe 3 years to get this county back on stable footing after the hell Trump put us through.

Thankfully most folks aren’t as deranged as you and have no desire or want really for mass murders.

This folks is your typical Trump voter, what a message.

 

[frequentflier]

Another MPD? Another one to go on IGNORE!

 

[stgislander]

Another MPD? Another one to go on IGNORE!

Looking at her join date, I'd say so.

 

[vraiblonde]

Yep, revenge. This is why Trump hasn’t expanded his base one iota.

You want mass murder of fellow Americans, you’ve said it multiple times.

It took Joe 3 years to get this county back on stable footing after the hell Trump put us through.

Thankfully most folks aren’t as deranged as you and have no desire or want really for mass murders.

This folks is your typical Trump voter, what a message.

First of all, how many freaking user names are you going to make??

Second, oh please. Gimme a break and cry me a river. You bots have been calling for the death of not only Trump but all of his supporters for 8 years. You've been making up bullshit charges to jail them, inflicting violence on them, and doing pretty much anything you can to destroy any opposition.

Do go **** yourself, or at least clutch your pearls so tight you strangle yourself.