GOP Tax Plan

[SamSpade]

It happens all the time? Really?

If that were true, all of the "no income tax" states would be over flowing with all of the US population. That hasn't happened.

You're assuming that that is the only and primary reason people would take the effort to move.

For my mom - better hospitals, and proximity to family.
For my wife - generally, safety.
For my in-laws - living near grandchildren.

This is akin to the idiotic argument that Rush (believe it or not, conservatives don't worship him) propagates - that if private industry paid so much better than government - then everyone would leave.
Ah - but - if you're say, 55 and older - how many of those new tech jobs are available to you? And how flexible are you with a new job when you have a large mortgage and a family?

How about this one - the one *I* personally experienced - you get a new private sector job that pays a lot better, has profit sharing, you have your own large corner office etc. etc. -
and two years in, sorry, can't use you, and in 45 minutes you're outside the door with a box in your hand? A scenario that would never - NEVER - happen in government?
I went back to government because although working harder is not rewarded, the pay is less - the benefits are good, the retirement plan is good and they're pretty much never going to fire you,
and they are certainly not going to fire you because they screwed up their budget or they're losing business.

For anyone - there are a LOT of factors that go into making big decisions like that. You don't observe HUGE transitions to validate points like that.
You observe TRENDS. And yes, there's a trend to low-tax states and away from higher tax ones. Especially when it comes to business.

When I retire, I will absolutely make taxation of my retirement income the most important part of my decision. When your income is fixed and future health uncertain, you can't be whimsical about choices like that.

But - I do know others will be.

 

[Gilligan]

But I haven't taken issue with any of my deductions as was claimed earlier. That's the difference that you missed.

Convenient. *chuckles*

 

[black dog]

It happens all the time? Really?

If that were true, all of the "no income tax" states would be over flowing with all of the US population. That hasn't happened.

I moved my small business from Mechanicsville 6 years ago, I got rid of a 2,500 mortgage and bought a home for cash, my materials cost average of 20% less, I can use the lacquer paint here that I couldn't buy in MD any longer because of MDE. The taxes on my home are under 450 bucks a year, I just bought a 3 bay building with a office for under 20 grand. And the seller put a new Goodyear roof on it to seal the deal. It's taxed heavy commercial with taxes under a grand a year. It's a corner lot so easy in and easy out for steel delivery and UPS. And it's 4 blocks from my home. People and businesses have been leaving Maryland for decades now.. How many Fortune 500's are left...
, Labor costs me easily 50 to 60% less..

 

[Merlin99]

Not really. People aren't going to pick up and move because of state's tax rate. If that were true, FL would have the bulk of our population.

Happens a lot where the border is close. A lot of people from Pax actually live in King George and commute, people at wallops island tend to move south to Va. and shop in Salisbury.

 

[Gilligan]

I moved my small business from Mechanicsville 6 years ago, I got rid of a 2,500 mortgage and bought a home for cash, my materials cost average of 20% less, I can use the lacquer paint here that I couldn't buy in MD any longer because of MDE. The taxes on my home are under 450 bucks a year, I just bought a 3 bay building with a office for under 20 grand. And the seller put a new Goodyear roof on it to seal the deal. It's taxed heavy commercial with taxes under a grand a year. It's a corner lot so easy in and easy out for steel delivery and UPS. And it's 4 blocks from my home. People and businesses have been leaving Maryland for decades now.. How many Fortune 500's are left...
, Labor costs me easily 50 to 60% less..

All of the above. We recently acquired a 2 acre commercial property fronting on Rt. 58 about 15 miles west of Danville VA. Very overbuilt block shop building (flat roof; roof joists are massive timbers repurposed from a local wooden bridge that was replaced) that was once the local firehouse and later on an automotive repair shop; going to add a frame second story with half office space and the other half an apartment with exterior deck and entrance. Paid $30K cash for it the property. Taxes are approaching $200 a year. . Another 0.5 acres next to it is probably going to be attached soon; the guy only wants $5K for that.

All that aside, might still keep the 8-acre island compound if rents/leases pay the property taxes and upkeep. Will see when the time comes.

 

[Hijinx]

All of the above. We recently acquired a 2 acre commercial property fronting on Rt. 58 about 15 miles west of Danville VA. Very overbuilt block shop building (flat roof; roof joists are massive timbers repurposed from a local wooden bridge that was replaced) that was once the local firehouse and later on an automotive repair shop; going to add a frame second story with half office space and the other half an apartment with exterior deck and entrance. Paid $30K cash for it the property. Taxes are approaching $200 a year. . Another 0.5 acres next to it is probably going to be attached soon; the guy only wants $5K for that.

All that aside, might still keep the 8-acre island compound if rents/leases pay the property taxes and upkeep. Will see when the time comes.

According to Al Gore you could plant oysters on the island in a couple of years. It will soon be an oyster reef.

 

[Gilligan]

According to Al Gore you could plant oysters on the island in a couple of years. It will soon be an oyster reef.

I've always believed everything Al tole me..

 

[GURPS]

I moved my small business from Mechanicsville 6 years ago ....

careful MR / Sappy will accuse you of bragging about your 'rusty trailers'

 

[Chris0nllyn]

CBO estimate is out.

The staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation determined that provisions in
the Chairman’s amendment would increase deficits over the 2018-2027
period by $1.4 trillion (not including the macroeconomic effects of enacting
the legislation). By CBO’s estimate, additional debt service would boost the
10-year increase in deficits to $1.7 trillion. CBO’s June 2017 baseline
projects that debt held by the public in 2027 will be 91.2 percent of gross
domestic product. As a result of those higher deficits, debt held by the
public in that year, under H.R. 1, would be about 6 percent greater,
reaching 97.1 percent of gross domestic product.

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/costestimate/hr1deficitsanddebt.pdf

 

[This_person]

not including the macroeconomic effects of enacting
the legislation

That seems like a big thing to leave out of their guess. "The fire will fully consume the entire building (not including the effects of the fire suppression system inside the building)".

 

[Chris0nllyn]

That seems like a big thing to leave out of their guess. "The fire will fully consume the entire building (not including the effects of the fire suppression system inside the building)".

I believe this is because it was a request and not subject to the same dynamic scoring as, say, a budget proposal.

This letter responds to your request for information about the estimated
deficits and debt under the Chairman’s amendment in the nature of a
substitute to H.R. 1, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

This was a specific request.

The second broad category of CBO’s work consists of informal cost estimates and other types of information produced to assist in the development of legislation. Those informal communications are preliminary because they do not undergo the same review procedures required for formal estimates. In some cases, they are provided for legislative proposals that are already public; in those situations, CBO’s analysis is available to any interested party in the Congress.

https://www.cbo.gov/about/processes#scope

 

[This_person]

I believe this is because it was a request and not subject to the same dynamic scoring as, say, a budget proposal.



This was a specific request.


https://www.cbo.gov/about/processes#scope

Ok, but the results seem meaningless

 

[Chris0nllyn]

Ok, but the results seem meaningless

Why? If you want to know what rosy projections that will maybe come from this legislation, just ask the people who crafted the bill.

 

[This_person]

Why? If you want to know what rosy projections that will maybe come from this legislation, just ask the people who crafted the bill.

Projections are always going to be extra rosy from those who like it and extra gloomy from those who don't. I know it's just prognostication, but I would rather have realistic. Saying what the results are without taking into ANY thought of how it might alter the economy is not realistic.

 

[Gilligan]

Saying what the results are without taking into ANY thought of how it might alter the economy is not realistic.

Exactly. Unfortunately they do that all the time and it cuts both ways. Another example; predicting income from new taxes that hit higher income people while ignoring the dynamic factors that are known to exist - they'll find legal ways to avoid paying them and the additional revenue is never what was predicted..

 

[Chris0nllyn]

Projections are always going to be extra rosy from those who like it and extra gloomy from those who don't. I know it's just prognostication, but I would rather have realistic. Saying what the results are without taking into ANY thought of how it might alter the economy is not realistic.

And the CBO will do that if it's passed by a full house. They don't do that level of estimating by request as evidenced on the CBO website.

 

[Clem72]

Exactly. Unfortunately they do that all the time and it cuts both ways. Another example; predicting income from new taxes that hit higher income people while ignoring the dynamic factors that are known to exist - they'll find legal ways to avoid paying them and the additional revenue is never what was predicted..

So we have seen that excessive taxes on the wealthy don't work, because they can afford to find ways of not paying. And we have seen that excessive tax breaks on the wealthy do not work, because it doesn't trickle down.

So what's the (reasonable) answer? Lots of flat tax/fair tax style proposals seem great, but they are NEVER given any credence in DC because they don't allow wealthy donors to cheat as effectively (I.E. better to have 39% taxes that I don't actually have to pay then 15% taxes that I do).

 

[stgislander]

Sorry for the doom and gloom but without budgets that control/reduce spending all the way around, any tax plan is meaningless.

 

[GURPS]

so Art Lffer was on Fox News talking about how great this is ....

counterpointed by Schumer saying 'make my day' and Pelosi trashing it as well



:shrug:

 

[This_person]

And the CBO will do that if it's passed by a full house. They don't do that level of estimating by request as evidenced on the CBO website.

Sure. I'm just saying that their current evaluation is like trying to complain because a car won't go if you don't take into account the tires.