A Question For My Evolutionist Friends

LateApex

New Member
"Selected" by whom?

Back in 1961, a guy named Drake calculated the likelihood of other life in the universe (though Hawking got a lot of credit recently for the exact same musing). With a series of wild-ass guesses (I mean, scientific conservative estimations), he came up with 40 other civilizations being likely throughout the universe.

Selected by what?

Life is admittedly a very improbable event. Because we are even here to argue the question at all proves that it did happen at least once though. This is known as the Anthropic Principle. Observation selection theory: a primer


"It has been estimated that there are between 1 billion and 30 billion planets in our galaxy, and about 100 billion galaxies in the universe. Knocking a few noughts off for reasons of ordinary prudence, a billion billion is a conservative estimate of available planets in the universe. Now, suppose the origin of life, the spontaneuos arising of something equivalent to DNA, really was quite a staggeringly improbable event. Suppose it was so improbable as to occur on only one in a billion planets. A grant-giving body would laugh at any chemist who admitted that the chance of his proposed research succeeding was only one in a hundred. But here we are talking about odds of one in a billion.

And yet... even with such absurdly long odds, life will still have arisen on a billion planets - of which Earth, of course, is one.

This conclusion is so surprising, I'll say it again. If the odds of life originating spontaneously on a planet were a billion to one against, nevertheless that stupefyingly improbable event would still happen on a billion planets. The chance of finding any one of those billion life-bearing planets recalls the proverbial needle in a haystack. But we don't have to go out of our way to find a needle because (back to the anthropic principle) any bengs capable of looking must necessarily be sitting on one of those prodigiously rare needles before they even start the search.

<snip>

Even accepting the most pessimistic estimate of the probability that life might spontaneously originate, this statistical argument completely demolishes any suggestion that we should postulate design to fill the gap. Of all the apparent gaps in the evolutionary story, the origin of life gap can seem unbridgeable to brains calibrated to assess likelihood and risk on an everyday scale: the scale on which grant-giving bodies assess research proposals submitted by chemists. Yet even so big a gap as this is easily filled by statistically informed science, while the very same statistical science rules out a divine creator on the "Ultimate 747" grounds we met earlier." ~Prof. Richard Dawkins
 

This_person

Well-Known Member
Selected by what?
Yep, that's my question. Is it guided, intelligently, or random happenstance
Life is admittedly a very improbable event. Because we are even here to argue the question at all proves that it did happen at least once though. This is known as the Anthropic Principle. Observation selection theory: a primer


"It has been estimated that there are between 1 billion and 30 billion planets in our galaxy, and about 100 billion galaxies in the universe. Knocking a few noughts off for reasons of ordinary prudence, a billion billion is a conservative estimate of available planets in the universe. Now, suppose the origin of life, the spontaneuos arising of something equivalent to DNA, really was quite a staggeringly improbable event. Suppose it was so improbable as to occur on only one in a billion planets.
This is where I have to take exception - why one in a billion? Why not one in a hundred trillion? Why not one in a gagillion? Until we have even the remotest concept of how life formed, and then that one tiny little cell had enough information in it to be all of the plants, animals, insects, germs, etc., that's ever existed on this planet (or at least it can be demonstratedly shown how a single celled organism can upgrade it's genetic information so drastically), there's absolutely no reason to give this a number besides a probability of zero. The Anthropic Principle shows that if something happened, it must be possible to have happened, but that doesn't mean it had to be non-guided.
 

LateApex

New Member
Yep, that's my question. Is it guided, intelligently, or random happenstanceThis is where I have to take exception - why one in a billion? Why not one in a hundred trillion? Why not one in a gagillion? Until we have even the remotest concept of how life formed, and then that one tiny little cell had enough information in it to be all of the plants, animals, insects, germs, etc., that's ever existed on this planet (or at least it can be demonstratedly shown how a single celled organism can upgrade it's genetic information so drastically), there's absolutely no reason to give this a number besides a probability of zero. The Anthropic Principle shows that if something happened, it must be possible to have happened, but that doesn't mean it had to be non-guided.

There's absolutely NO reason to give it a probability of zero...

It doesn't mean it has to be guided either...
 

This_person

Well-Known Member
There's absolutely NO reason to give it a probability of zero...

It doesn't mean it has to be guided either...
Okay, I'll grant zero may be wrong.

How about one in a billion-billion? That's all we can demonstrate, and we have no other process than that to base it on.
 

LateApex

New Member
Okay, I'll grant zero may be wrong.

How about one in a billion-billion? That's all we can demonstrate, and we have no other process than that to base it on.

I'm curious though - do you believe life exists on other planets?

Why wouldn't god have created life on other planets?

Are we that ego-centric to think that we are the only ones in this universe that god loved?
 

2ndAmendment

Just a forgiven sinner
PREMO Member
I'm curious though - do you believe life exists on other planets?

Why wouldn't god have created life on other planets?

Are we that ego-centric to think that we are the only ones in this universe that god loved?

The Bible does not exclude life on other planets. God created the heavens and the earth and all things therein.
 

This_person

Well-Known Member
I'm curious though - do you believe life exists on other planets?

Why wouldn't god have created life on other planets?

Are we that ego-centric to think that we are the only ones in this universe that god loved?
I agree with 2A - there's no reason to preclude the idea of life on other planets. It's even more likely now that we've sent stuff out into space - we could be inadvertantly "planting" life there.
 

PsyOps

Pixelated
The odds are exactly 100%...

Things that worked were selected for. Things that didn't became extinct.

Do you think that we are the only living things in this universe?

That's not the point. Life is life no matter where you go in the universe. It must have conditions that allow it to survive. I don't believe these conditions can come about through a random process of spontaneous chemical reactions. Spontaneity can’t have the same results every time. Otherwise cows would be giving birth pigeons with 8 legs and a head of a hammerhead shark.
 

wxtornado

The Other White Meat
That's not the point. Life is life no matter where you go in the universe. It must have conditions that allow it to survive. I don't believe these conditions can come about through a random process of spontaneous chemical reactions. Spontaneity can’t have the same results every time. Otherwise cows would be giving birth pigeons with 8 legs and a head of a hammerhead shark.

This is a typical "god of the gaps" argument. Gods were responsible for lightning until we determined natural causes for lightning, for infectious diseases until we found bacteria and viruses, and for mental illness until we found biochemical causes for them.

How do you make the leap from "it is inconceivable that (fill in the blank) could have happened naturally" to "therefore, it must have been created by a diety"?
 

This_person

Well-Known Member
This is a typical "god of the gaps" argument. Gods were responsible for lightning until we determined natural causes for lightning, for infectious diseases until we found bacteria and viruses, and for mental illness until we found biochemical causes for them.
And, where did the electrons come from for the electrical charge of lightening? Where did the bacteria and viruses come from? The diversity in humans and their body chemistry?

That's right, God. Science can quote the "how's", I believe in the "from who and why"
 

wxtornado

The Other White Meat
And, where did the electrons come from for the electrical charge of lightening? Where did the bacteria and viruses come from? The diversity in humans and their body chemistry?

That's right, God.

And that's fine if you believe that. My question to you remains, how do you make that leap to "God did it!"? Where is the line?
 

This_person

Well-Known Member
And that's fine if you believe that. My question to you remains, how do you make that leap to "God did it!"? Where is the line?
At the risk of sounding like a kook to you, when you feel the presence of God in your life, you'll know. Until then, you won't know.
 

PsyOps

Pixelated
This is a typical "god of the gaps" argument. Gods were responsible for lightning until we determined natural causes for lightning, for infectious diseases until we found bacteria and viruses, and for mental illness until we found biochemical causes for them.

How do you make the leap from "it is inconceivable that (fill in the blank) could have happened naturally" to "therefore, it must have been created by a diety"?

As usual you haven’t paid attention to any of my previous posts. I believe God set the laws of nature in motion. He does not dictate their occurrences. So, from a creation standpoint God did create lightning in that he created the laws of physics that allow lightning to happen. There’s the leap.
 

Tonio

Asperger's Poster Child
They hold equally logical answers as the questions of the big bang - where did all that matter come from? How was it compressed like that? What is in the space around the universe?

Except that there is a great deal of evidence for the big bang theory, and there is no evidence for an intelligent creator.

Who made God is a fair question, not asked only by children. But, still having questions does not minimize the potential truth of the argument.

The question itself shows that creationism is not an explanation. That's because creationism doesn't rule out alternatives - an intelligent creator could have done anything. It doesn't rule out the deist concept, suggested by some on this thread, of evolution and abiogenesis being accurate but with a creator behind these events.

This whole portion of this discussion began with your assertion that proving (or allowing as equal) the concept that religion might hold the right answers would mean the church would wield some huge power over people. Your arguments here prove that there would still be no church rule of mankind.

Can you point me to the post where I made that assertion? Your paragraph suggests that you may have misinterpreted what I was trying to say.

I don't see the problem with it.

The problem is when a person focuses on doing what he believes pleases his gods, he cannot focus on the consequences of his actions for himself and for others.

Idiots will be idiots, regardless of religious stance. As a general rule of thumb (not an absolute, but generally) non-religious people are more likely to be okay with abortion - whereas I see that as killing another human.

Religion has no monopoly on the pro-life stance. There is a valid secular argument to be made for the pro-life position. But the argument made by many (not all) religions are inherently invalid - this argument is nothing more than "our gods say so." That stance automatically neutralizes any other arguments that these religions make about the value of life, because it means that one shouldn't value life on its own merits. The stance unnecessarily distorts the abortion question, focusing it on divining the will of gods instead of on the value of life.

Fanatics will become self-inflicted martyrs, whereas the average religious person finds that atrocious.

While I understand that, I don't understand why the person would find that atrocious. Is that person following his own conscience at the expense of his religion's doctrines? Or does that person simply have a different belief than the fanatic about what their gods require?

When speaking of the after-life, or lack thereof, my point was in response to the comments regarding "condemning" a non-religious person to a punishment in the afterlife. The non-religious person condemns the religious to a lack of afterlife, the religious believe the non-religious condemn themselves to a punishment of sorts (lack of reward). My point was each side equally attacks the other regarding the concept of an afterlife. Each side believes the know the answer, and the other will be upset by it.

Demonstrating the lack of evidence for an afterlife doesn't "condemn" anyone because there is no judgment involved. Like the universe itself, the finite nature of life is indifferent to human wishes and desires. The burden of proof is on the claim of an afterlife. Also, it's reasonable to wonder if the believer who claims there are punishments or rewards after death is merely offering his own opinions about others and is merely projecting these onto claims about gods.

Absolutely not. There is no doubt in my mind that there can be only one absolute truth (by definition). I believe I know what it is. Paul believed he knew, WXTornado and TommyJones believe they know. We all have equal proof. Therefore, the only morally correct way to act is to respect that each person is allowed their own view, with the understanding that each of us believes we know the consequences to the other.

How can one believe in absolute truth and also believe that others are allowed their own views? The former explicitly means that it's wrong to hold any beliefs that go against that truth. Defining morality according to absolute truth means that the consequences of actions are irrelevant. And again, this would hold for any absolutist secular ideology.
 
K

Kain99

Guest
God Tonio... You see obsessed with "This person." Isn't it more interesting how 2A has created Marie, to be more of a zealot than he is? :cartwheel
 

Tonio

Asperger's Poster Child
God Tonio... You see obsessed with "This person." Isn't it more interesting how 2A has created Marie, to be more of a zealot than he is? :cartwheel

It may seem like obsession, but I'm simply enjoying the exchange. Remember that my position is skepticism as opposed to atheism.

Are you suggesting that Marie is actually an MPD of 2A, or are you suggesting that 2A's posts attracted Marie to this forum?
 

This_person

Well-Known Member
Except that there is a great deal of evidence for the big bang theory, and there is no evidence for an intelligent creator.
Circumstantial, tangential evidence. The same can be said of an intelligent creator. After all, several creator theories include a big bang type of beginning of the universe, so the implied evidence supporting the theory of a "big bang" also support equally those theories of an intelligent designer.
The question itself shows that creationism is not an explanation. That's because creationism doesn't rule out alternatives - an intelligent creator could have done anything. It doesn't rule out the deist concept, suggested by some on this thread, of evolution and abiogenesis being accurate but with a creator behind these events.
It's another link in the chain of explaination. Yes, it then begs the question of the creator's creator, composition, etc. But, that doesn't mean it's not true. It doesn't imply it can't be, just because it causes more questions.
Can you point me to the post where I made that assertion? Your paragraph suggests that you may have misinterpreted what I was trying to say.
I agree it was an interpretation. If I misjudged what you've said, I apologize. At this many posts in this thread, no, I can't go back and find it.
The problem is when a person focuses on doing what he believes pleases his gods, he cannot focus on the consequences of his actions for himself and for others.
That depends entirely on what he believes will please his God. :lol: Virtually all religions expect someone to focus on the greater good for all, above themselves.
Religion has no monopoly on the pro-life stance. There is a valid secular argument to be made for the pro-life position. But the argument made by many (not all) religions are inherently invalid - this argument is nothing more than "our gods say so." That stance automatically neutralizes any other arguments that these religions make about the value of life, because it means that one shouldn't value life on its own merits. The stance unnecessarily distorts the abortion question, focusing it on divining the will of gods instead of on the value of life.
I wasn't saying that abortion is a religious question, I was stereotyping the people involved (statstics stand for themselves). Certainly there are valid secular reasons, based upon the morality of not harming someone else. But, what is the basis for that morality? Some would say that the basis is "human nature", not something taught through a religion. I would say that "human nature" is inherent because that's how we're designed. I would also say that society, especially American society being Christian in the vast majority, is based upon Christian values - so even the non-religious are influenced by Christian values through constant exposure.
While I understand that, I don't understand why the person would find that atrocious. Is that person following his own conscience at the expense of his religion's doctrines? Or does that person simply have a different belief than the fanatic about what their gods require?
I think most would find it atrocious because the vast majority of religions feel that life is the greatest gift we've been given so far, with the ability to grow our selves, our families, and our souls. To obliterate ourselves and innocent others in the name of religion seems counter to the basic understanding of virtually all religions. Today, it's Islamic fantatics. Most Islamic religious leaders will say that the mass killing of innocents is not in line with their religion. The fantatic leaders make the news by saying they're doing the will of Allah.
Demonstrating the lack of evidence for an afterlife doesn't "condemn" anyone because there is no judgment involved. Like the universe itself, the finite nature of life is indifferent to human wishes and desires. The burden of proof is on the claim of an afterlife. Also, it's reasonable to wonder if the believer who claims there are punishments or rewards after death is merely offering his own opinions about others and is merely projecting these onto claims about gods.
There should be no human judgement involved for the religious person, either. There always is human judgement, because that's also how we were designed. The average atheist judges the average person of faith as being a bit ignorant, or at least easily mislead. It's posted on this forum every day. The average person of faith feels compelled to tell that average atheist how they'll "burn in hell", or some other such judgement. Like kids fighting about whether Mom and Dad will punish them. But, the judgement is God's, not ours. If someone is an atheist, then they have no worries of God, because He doesn't exist. If someone is a person of faith, they need not worry about there being no after-life, because it's as clear to me as my hand before my face that there is one. My point was that both sides offend the other with their belief that the other side is wrong, and how they'll not get their belief met at death. Each side has a belief of what will happen, and they're both equally abhorant to the other.
How can one believe in absolute truth and also believe that others are allowed their own views? The former explicitly means that it's wrong to hold any beliefs that go against that truth.
Because beliefs have no hold on what the truth is. Regardless of whether I believe in God or not, if the truth is that He's out there, He's out there. If the truth is that I'm wrong and He's not, I'm wrong and He's not. Truth is not swayed by people's beliefs.
Defining morality according to absolute truth means that the consequences of actions are irrelevant. And again, this would hold for any absolutist secular ideology.
I don't understand how morality coming from what the truth is would mean there is no consequence to actions IF the truth is theistic in nature (no pun intended). I only see there being no real consequence for actions if the truth is that we're just amino acid mutations infesting a small rock in a yo-yo of a universe that continually expands and contracts.
 
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