vraiblonde said:
And if the Chinese think that gives them license to nuke Taiwan in order to take over, then that's their problem and they'll have to be dealt with.
And therein lies the rub! How will China be dealt with for using nuclear weapons against Taiwan? Suppose they hit the major bases on the island, followed by a small tactical nuke on Taipei? What will the US do? Would we come to Taiwan's defense by firing some of our small warheads at Chinese bases and cities? If not, then what message would we be sending to Pakistan, India, Israel, etc., if we allowed one of our allies to be attacked with nuclear arms while we sat back and did nothing but protest? And if we do respond with nukes, where would the escalation/retaliation stop... or would it not stop except by the destruction of both sides?
Let's look at how things would likely play out. We legitimize the use of small, tactical, nuclear warheads to achieve a specific goal (taking out bunkers) and in the name of saving American military lives.
The Chinese launch small tactical warheads at military bases on Taiwan, for a specific purpose (to reclaim Taiwan) and to save Chinese military lives. As a result, the conventional forces on Taiwan, which the US had planned on serving as the backbone of the island's defense, are destroyed and now American assets must be used for the counterattack. Also, thousands of Americans on Taiwan get incinerated along with a lot of Taiwanese. We complain, but the World says "Hey... you were the idiots who legitimized the use of tactical nukes, so quit whining."
At this point we launch a nuclear counterstrike against Chinese deployment sites to stem the invasion force until we can get reinforcements to the theater; or we attack the invasion force with what we have and risk more nuclear exchanges; or we turn on our tails and head for home, showing the World that we're a paper tiger of the worst sort.
Two of the options would likely result in escalations that would lead to an all-out nuclear exchange with China, and one would pretty much take us out of the running as a superpower and put China in our spot.
And all of these deaths in the hundreds of thousands or millions occur just so we can prevent 50-100 casualties in Iraq, Pakistan, or Afghanistan? Doesn't sound like very sound military thinking to me.