Beware R0 Variance

[Yooper]

Okay, stat geeks. Have at it:

Beware R0 Variance

The big push now re Covid19 is to use “social distancing” to cut “R0”, the rate at which infection spreads.

www.overcomingbias.com

This is a relatively short post, but really statistic-y. Here's the penultimate "paragraph" (to whet your appetite):

All of which is to say that suppressing a pandemic after it has escaped its initial place is very hard. Which is also to say, we probably won’t succeed.

I will have more to say in a bit about what I think this means/signals. But at this point I'll let the article stand on its own and see if anyone bites.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[vraiblonde]

I'll bite, just because I love the word "penultimate".

Human behavior is a variable. In the case of this virus, it's an enormous variable that makes prediction impossible.

And straight up, I'm unimpressed with the half-assed quarantine measures. True quarantine is isolation; anything else is just viral business as usual. People think they're protected by only going to the grocery store with 100 other people, and the drug store with another 40, and gotta stop for some Chik-Fil-A with how many hands preparing your food, and oh yeah gotta go to work at their super essential job of pushing pencils and then travel by plane to another city so they can push pencils there for a week or so with a bunch of other people.

That the government mandated Stay At Home laws amount to "stand on one foot, now rub your head while sticking your tongue out and recite the alphabet" tells me all I need to know.

Then you have to take into consideration that the virus might mutate and reinfect. Perhaps we'll think we've got it licked, only for it to come out of dormancy and take the world by storm again.

So, anyway, this virus isn't going anywhere. Ever. If that disturbs you, you need to get yourself a bubble and stay there. The rest of us will let our immune system fight it off and go on with our lives. Maybe wave to you while we're eating a pizza and drinking a beer.

 

[Yooper]

Thanks for the reply. I think you're probably going to be the only one.

I think the virus is bad; much worse than you give it credit for being. Regardless, I agree that we can't afford to do this economic lock-down much longer. It may cause Trump to lose his bid for reelection, but I think he'll do what's right for the country (as opposed to what's right for him; though his preferred outcome is, of course, that the two coincide).

What Hanson wrote is almost certainly known by the experts advising Trump (and thus, Trump). As such, this data tells Trump that there will come some point in the near future where the economic lock-down no longer makes sense. Because of this "R0 variance problem."

Trump is hoping we can get to some level of success in mitigation before having to make that admission, but maybe we don't. In any event, the lock-down has to end. Trump's calculus, at this point, is to try to minimize the number of deaths while minimizing damage to the economy. Focusing on the former drives down the latter; focusing on the latter drives up the former.

No matter what Trump does it will be used against him. It will either be too many deaths or too much damage to the economy or a combination of both. The Dems think they have Trump on the ropes.

Maybe they do. At this point his only hope isn't Obi-Wan Kenobi; rather, it's that he is clever enough to pull off this balancing act in such a way that he comes out a President of historic proportions.

While the Dems are rooting against him, I'm rooting for him. And praying. If anyone can pull this off, it's Trump.

R0 variance.

In the absence of a vaccine, this is the only data point that matters.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[vraiblonde]

Unfortunately we have a number of people who think a destroyed economy and 10s of millions of people out of work is worth saving a handful of lives. I don't. I typically err on the side of what will benefit the majority and am at peace with the consequences of that. If you can mitigate the deaths and only take a small economic hit, that's a good trade-off. But this has been an enormous economic hit, affecting an enormous number of people, and we cannot sustain that.

 

[Yooper]

...is worth saving a handful of lives.

This is the rub, I think: how one quantifies "a handful of lives."

My sense is that Trump has been "leading and pacing" the country to eventually accept 100k-240k deaths as a win. Hope it doesn't come to that; certainly Trump doesn't hope for numbers that high, either. But the grim reality is that there are numerous other equities at stake.

So if this is a war (as so many seem to be fond of saying), then we must be ready to accept the casualties war brings. But many won't (accept it). Hence, why I said the Dems think they've got Trump right where they want him; they plan to capitalize upon every death (this is what the Dems are leading and pacing with).

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[PeoplesElbow]

Do you really think people would be going out to restaurants, flying etc right now if the government did nothing?

I went out to eat on the Thursday before the crap hit the fan, I think it was the 13th. A normally crowded place was fairly sparse.

 

[vraiblonde]

This is the rub, I think: how one quantifies "a handful of lives."

I'm a % person as opposed to a numbers person. 4,000 people - actually I think it's 5,000 now - have supposedly died of COVID in the last month. That's .0015% of the population, in a country where 6,700 people die every day from various causes.

 

[PeoplesElbow]

I'm a % person as opposed to a numbers person. 4,000 people - actually I think it's 5,000 now - have supposedly died of COVID in the last month. That's .0015% of the population, in a country where 6,700 people die every day from various causes.

Or more that died on 9/11, did you feel the same with that?

 

[Yooper]

If the White House confirms what Sean Davis at The Federalist points out about the IMHE model is true, we may see the end of the lock-down more sooner than later. Trump would certainly be glad for the news, I think. But I don't want to get my hopes up (yet), though (even though Davis has quite a bit of experience with numbers).

Analyst Discovers a Major Flaw in IHME Model Used by White House; Actual Numbers Are a Fraction of Expected

www.redstate.com

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[LightRoasted]

If I may ...

Thanks for the reply. I think you're probably going to be the only one.

I think the virus is bad; much worse than you give it credit for being. Regardless, I agree that we can't afford to do this economic lock-down much longer. It may cause Trump to lose his bid for reelection, but I think he'll do what's right for the country (as opposed to what's right for him; though his preferred outcome is, of course, that the two coincide).

What Hanson wrote is almost certainly known by the experts advising Trump (and thus, Trump). As such, this data tells Trump that there will come some point in the near future where the economic lock-down no longer makes sense. Because of this "R0 variance problem."

Trump is hoping we can get to some level of success in mitigation before having to make that admission, but maybe we don't. In any event, the lock-down has to end. Trump's calculus, at this point, is to try to minimize the number of deaths while minimizing damage to the economy. Focusing on the former drives down the latter; focusing on the latter drives up the former.

No matter what Trump does it will be used against him. It will either be too many deaths or too much damage to the economy or a combination of both. The Dems think they have Trump on the ropes.

Maybe they do. At this point his only hope isn't Obi-Wan Kenobi; rather, it's that he is clever enough to pull off this balancing act in such a way that he comes out a President of historic proportions.

While the Dems are rooting against him, I'm rooting for him. And praying. If anyone can pull this off, it's Trump.

R0 variance.

In the absence of a vaccine, this is the only data point that matters.

--- End of line (MCP)

Yooper. I respect you. I do. But really? This has theater written all over it. It is a coronavirus. Maybe, just maybe, (there is no real factual corroboration), it's a bit worse that the regular flu. I've always thought you an independent thinker. What ever this coronavius is, it does not warrant the dictatorial edicts that government have thrown at the people. Btw. The only good vaccine is a healthy diet, exercise, and plenty of sunshine for skin vitamin d synthesis.

 

[Yooper]

If I may ...


Yooper. I respect you. I do. But really? This has theater written all over it. It is a coronavirus. Maybe, just maybe, (there is no real factual corroboration), it's a bit worse that the regular flu. I've always thought you an independent thinker. What ever this coronavius is, it does not warrant the dictatorial edicts that government have thrown at the people. Btw. The only good vaccine is a healthy diet, exercise, and plenty of sunshine for skin vitamin d synthesis.

I guess we disagree.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[vraiblonde]

Or more that died on 9/11, did you feel the same with that?

That's a bit different, don't you think?

 

[GURPS]

No matter what Trump does it will be used against him. It will either be too many deaths or too much damage to the economy or a combination of both. The Dems think they have Trump on the ropes.

Schiff is already ' investigating ' and getting a bill to from teh next task force

 

[GURPS]

Do you really think people would be going out to restaurants, flying etc right now if the government did nothing?

once the deaths rise to 100's a day, yes, until then or someone you know dies / or describes how much worse the affects are - ie coughing up blood for days - people would go about their daily business

 

[PeoplesElbow]

That's a bit different, don't you think?

Dead is dead, would you be less upset if a loved one died either way when they didn't need to?

 

[vraiblonde]

Dead is dead, would you be less upset if a loved one died either way when they didn't need to?

I'm not sure we can compare a terrorist attack to a virus. But you go on ahead.

People I don't know die every day - 6,700 of them, to be exact. It doesn't affect me and I don't spend my life weeping for them. Is it sad? Sure. But how much emotional investment do you want to make for thousands of strangers? How much financial loss do you want to suffer? Do you want to drain your bank account and lose your job over them? Everyone gets to decide that for themselves.

9/11 was an attack on our whole country, and that was what concerned me.

 

[PeoplesElbow]

I'm not sure we can compare a terrorist attack to a virus. But you go on ahead.

People I don't know die every day - 6,700 of them, to be exact. It doesn't affect me and I don't spend my life weeping for them. Is it sad? Sure. But how much emotional investment do you want to make for thousands of strangers? How much financial loss do you want to suffer? Do you want to drain your bank account and lose your job over them? Everyone gets to decide that for themselves.

9/11 was an attack on our whole country, and that was what concerned me.

I can kill a terrorist if i get the chance, I can't kill someone that causes infection by not giving a crap about others.

 

[Kyle]

The estimate is there are about 10 million people in the united states on a daily basis that have a comprimised immune system.

They are suseptible to die from any number of normal everyday bugs that cause others little to no harm.

Do you:

A. Have the people at "Highest Risk" keep to themselves and protect themselves in whatever manner possible

or

B. Tell EVERYONE they must stay home, away from any people whatsoever until we find a way to immunize the "At Risk" individuals


:shakingheadruefully:

 

[vraiblonde]

I can kill a terrorist if i get the chance, I can't kill someone that causes infection by not giving a crap about others.

Psst. Your fear is making you jump the fridge.

It's interesting to me how many normally rational people have become irrational in the face of this virus.

 

[vraiblonde]

The estimate is there are about 10 million people in the united states on a daily basis that have a comprimised immune system.

They are suseptible to die from any number of normal everyday bugs that cause others little to no harm.

Do you:

A. Have the people at "Highest Risk" keep to themselves and protect themselves in whatever manner possible

or

B. Tell EVERYONE they must stay home, away from any people whatsoever until we find a way to immunize the "At Risk" individuals


:shakingheadruefully:

And for some people the answer is B, and they cannot fathom why anyone in their right mind would choose A. It's like someone who is terrified of heights and wants to make a law against ladders.