COVID-19

[itsbob]

What nonsense are you talking about

What did Trump do that "worked"? Nothing

I didnt see where they announced the virus was eradicated.

Eradicated?? Like gun laws will eradicate murder??

Aren't you special.

So you say there are over 52 million dead now?? 2.5 BILLION infected?? Trump shutting down airlines coming from China worked, despite the democrats whining about it for one..

SOMETHING broke the model, I would have to say it's something we did, and something everyone else around the world did. Looking at the big picture we have countries that are 1/50th of our size that have more infected people, and more deaths.. so again, leads to the conclusion that the Trump administration did something right, while others were "waiting to see what happens". How many cases were there in Italy when Trump shut down flights from China?? How about now??

AI Predicts Coronavirus Could Infect 2.5 Billion And Kill 53 Million. Doctors Say That’s Not Credible, And Here’s Why

How bad will Coronavirus actually be? Predictions are hard, because conditions are changing ...

www.forbes.com

"I started with day over day growth,” he told me, using publicly available data released by China. “[I then] took that data and dumped it into an AI neural net using a RNN [recurrent neural network] model and ran the simulation ten million times. That output dictated the forecast for the following day. Once the following day’s output was published, I grabbed that data, added it to the training data, and re-ran ten million times.”

The results so far have successfully predicted the following day’s publicly-released numbers within 3%, Ross says.

The results were shocking. Horrific, even.

 

[itsbob]

The idiot flew on a plane with someone who had possible exposure.

You might want to slow down and pull down your skirt, your lack of brain cells is showing.

I'm sure you're been in close contact with 50 or more people that had "POSSIBLE" exposure..

I know I have been.. probably a lot more than that.

 

[itsbob]

When did he save a single life ?

According to the model he saved close to 52 million lives..

You can genuflect and thank him now.

 

[Stjohns3269]

According to the model he saved close to 52 million lives..

You can genuflect and thank him now.

HAHAHAAHAHA

The world Health organization just announced this was a pandemic and you are already awarding Trump the nobel peace prize before the body count?

 

[itsbob]

You idiots just don't get it..

You cannot use a chart to tell us how dangerous it is, and how bad it is, then say.. Well that chart and THAT model are just stupid! Yet the charts are both based on the same dataset..

I have ZERO faith in the model that predicted 52 million deaths.. the same say I believe the charts you provided are pure bullshit.

If you claim your chart is right, and the holy grail, than you have to assume the 52 million death projection was too. I don't believe either, but you cannot believe one is correct, and the other is bullshit.

 

[itsbob]

HAHAHAAHAHA

The world Health organization just announced this was a pandemic and you are already awarding Trump the nobel peace prize before the body count?

Where are the 52 million bodies dumbass??

We're are far beyond the 45 days.

 

[Stjohns3269]

You idiots just don't get it..

You cannot use a chart to tell us how dangerous it is, and how bad it is, then say.. Well that chart and THAT model are just stupid! Yet the charts are both based on the same dataset..

I have ZERO faith in the model that predicted 52 million deaths.. the same say I believe the charts you provided are pure bullshit.

If you claim your chart is right, and the holy grail, than you have to assume the 52 million death projection was too. I don't believe either, but you cannot believe one is correct, and the other is bullshit.

Are you a meth user?

 

[Stjohns3269]

Where are the 52 million bodies dumbass??

We're are far beyond the 45 days.

I'm guessing you never got past high school science class huh?

 

[Spitfire]

You idiots just don't get it..

You cannot use a chart to tell us how dangerous it is, and how bad it is, then say.. Well that chart and THAT model are just stupid! Yet the charts are both based on the same dataset..

I have ZERO faith in the model that predicted 52 million deaths.. the same say I believe the charts you provided are pure bullshit.

If you claim your chart is right, and the holy grail, than you have to assume the 52 million death projection was too. I don't believe either, but you cannot believe one is correct, and the other is bullshit.

Greetings:

Lap, lap, lap up that propaganda!

Mmmmmmmmmm!

 

[gemma_rae]

HAHAHAAHAHA

The world Health organization just announced this was a pandemic and you are already awarding Trump the nobel peace prize before the body count?

Glad you found your funny bone!

And your MPD!

 

[InigoMontoya]

Infections
COVID-19: Approximately 121,564 cases worldwide; 1,050 cases in the U.S. as of Mar. 11, 2020.
Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths
COVID-19: Approximately 4,373 deaths reported worldwide; 29 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 11, 2020.
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

Johns Hopkins Medicine › Coronavirus Disease 2019 vs. the Flu

 

[Clem72]

Simple statistics tell you there is no value to the charts, sample size for COVID-19 is too small to even compare the two.
Just like there is no value to this chart printed in Forbes about a month ago.. how did their predictions pan out??
But these charts and others like them is what is causing all the hysteria and panic.. they're all pure BS.


Moron..




Moron..




Moron..

View attachment 146082



To be fair, they would have to be of the same sample size. You'd also have to remove from your sample anyone with underlying health issues..

Just going to remind you, the chart you posted was from an op-ed piece based on the author's projections of the future. The chart I posted is from data direct from the CDC based on actual current observation.

But the good news is, you don't need to change your habits at all. There is very little chance you will get infected in your mother's basement subsisting on diet coke and hot pockets.

 

[PoobliuS]

Infections
COVID-19: Approximately 121,564 cases worldwide; 1,050 cases in the U.S. as of Mar. 11, 2020.
Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths
COVID-19: Approximately 4,373 deaths reported worldwide; 29 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 11, 2020.
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

Johns Hopkins Medicine › Coronavirus Disease 2019 vs. the Flu

That is exactly my point, thank you. Rough math on those numbers shows that the death rate for COVID-19 = 3.6%. Flu death rate = 0.06%, which indicates COVID-19 is 55 times more deadly than the flu and warrants special attention. It is very important to try to eliminate spread of COVID-19.

Going back to points from others regarding how accurate the statistics are in general, of course error is expected in any such studies. It was stated that there are probably a lot of COVID-19 cases that were not reported, thus the death rates appear inflated. It is a bit of speculation on my side here, since I didn't do research, but wouldn't the same problem exist in the reported flu statistics? Unless they did a study where they purposely infected tens of thousands of people to see who died, which would be highly unethical, then the problem of unreported cases is a common one between the two viruses and therefore directly comparing the two viruses should be in the ballpark. There were definitely enough COVID-19 cases looked at to be statistically significant, the reference stated it was based on ~50,000 cases.

 

[itsbob]

That is exactly my point, thank you. Rough math on those numbers shows that the death rate for COVID-19 = 3.6%. Flu death rate = 0.06%, which indicates COVID-19 is 55 times more deadly than the flu and warrants special attention. It is very important to try to eliminate spread of COVID-19.

Going back to points from others regarding how accurate the statistics are in general, of course error is expected in any such studies. It was stated that there are probably a lot of COVID-19 cases that were not reported, thus the death rates appear inflated. It is a bit of speculation on my side here, since I didn't do research, but wouldn't the same problem exist in the reported flu statistics? Unless they did a study where they purposely infected tens of thousands of people to see who died, which would be highly unethical, then the problem of unreported cases is a common one between the two viruses and therefore directly comparing the two viruses should be in the ballpark. There were definitely enough COVID-19 cases looked at to be statistically significant, the reference stated it was based on ~50,000 cases.

Well you got the ROUGH MATH part right.. the dataset isn't large enough to come to those conclusions.

50,000 COVID cases compared to millions of Flu cases?? You can't compare the two.

Do you agree that statistics and conclusions are more accurate the larger the dataset used to come to those conclusions?? Or do they get less accurate the larger the data set?

 

[itsbob]

I'm guessing you never got past high school science class huh?

Might want to re-think that.

I have a year two beyond High School.. even modeling, Statistics, and Probability classes at the local community college.

 

[PoobliuS]

Well you got the ROUGH MATH part right.. the dataset isn't large enough to come to those conclusions.

50,000 COVID cases compared to millions of Flu cases?? You can't compare the two.

Do you agree that statistics and conclusions are more accurate the larger the dataset used to come to those conclusions?? Or do they get less accurate the larger the data set?

50,000 is more than fine for a sample size. If you want 99% confidence with a +/-1 confidence interval, to estimate a world population of 8 billion, you need a sample size of 17,000. 50,000 is extremely tight.

https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm#one

 

[Makavide]

Just wondering why the difference?
United States first detected case January 21st, currently 1,101
Italy first detected case January 31st, currently 10,149

 

[InigoMontoya]

Just wondering why the difference?
United States first detected case January 21st, currently 1,101
Italy first detected case January 31st, currently 10,149

There's a lot more people in Italy.

 

[mdff21]

There's a lot more people in Italy.

Population by countries (source: worldometer) United States..331,002,651. Italy..60,886,826.

 

[stgislander]

Crap. I'm a gonner.

Been nice knowing everyone.

Can I have your portion of the strawberry shortcake?