Speaking personally, I would have to give the edge to Bush, despite the fact that I thought he did a poor job on the mechanics of the debate. I thought the most telling aspect of the debate was how both guys conveyed their information. I guess I've just gotten too used to Kerry's "If elected I promise to..." directness that most politicians use. I found Bush's speaking style to be far more conversational, like he's actually talking to you and not preaching from the mound. I too cringed when Bush had those "deer in the spotlight moments", but for the most part he scored big with me because he didn't sound like all of the other politicans that you hear. Kerry sounded exactly like everyone else.
I also found Kerry used the terms "I have a plan..." or "My plan to..." too much. Ok... so you have a plan... why did you formulate your plan that way and how about at least a brief overview of what your plan is? Bush didn't speak about plans, rather he said what he would do, and more importantly, what he wouldn't do. I much prefered "I think that it's in our best interests to do this..." over "If elected I will do this...!"
I thought the big miss for Kerry was not saying something like "I salute and appreciate the President's service in the National Guard just as I greatly appreciate the sacrifice that our Guardsmen are making today." I think that blowing off Bush's Guard service cost Kerry points with service people... especially since he was so quick to commend himself for his service (at least he didn't say he deserved a Purple Heart for eye strain from the podium lights.) The other big miss was scolding Bush for saying the Chinese would still be involved in unilateral talks with North Korea, despite the fact that the North Koreans just walked out of and stopped talks with China until after the election so they can see who wins. Big oopsie there!
The big miss for Bush was not saying something like "We have learned that there is only one leader who has the best interests of Americans at heart, and that is the President of the United States. Leaders of other nations have their own country's best interests to look out for, and that's the way it should be. But for the US to rely on those who will not place our safety and security, or the safety and security of our global neighbors, above their own interests, is a risk that we can not afford to accept."
I thought the big score for Kerry was that he was very confident and didn't go into any fevered "Gore" moments. His big hit was his continued affirmation of global leadership, despite self-serving interests... and the bit on the North Korean talks. I thought Bush's big score was when he said he would never turn the protection of the United States over to foreign leaders... I just wish he would have elaborated a bit. His big miss was the dead pauses... he really looked bad.