Don't Look at Your Portfolio!

Hessian

Well-Known Member
Our portfolio has seen only about 10% recovery of the losses sustained since Uncle lunchbucket decided to declare war on the middle class...and that 10% was just in the last 6 weeks. This will NOT continue.

I suppose my core question is, where can I plant the remainder to weather the storm on the horizon??
Shift it over to bonds??
Gold/Silver ETFs?
Pulling it out would suffer a HUGE penalty...so...how can I secure 35 years of investments?
 

SamSpade

Well-Known Member
Our portfolio has seen only about 10% recovery of the losses sustained since Uncle lunchbucket decided to declare war on the middle class...and that 10% was just in the last 6 weeks. This will NOT continue.

I suppose my core question is, where can I plant the remainder to weather the storm on the horizon??
Shift it over to bonds??
Gold/Silver ETFs?
Pulling it out would suffer a HUGE penalty...so...how can I secure 35 years of investments?
My gut feeling is, unless you plan to retire soon or otherwise make use of your investments, just wait it out.
My own analysis has been, however, retirement has just been pushed back at least two years. And that's also INFLATION
destroying what savings I have.
 

Sneakers

Just sneakin' around....
Shift it over to bonds??
My financial advisor suggested high yield 6 month CDs as a stable guaranteed investment. Re-evaluate every 6 months. I had extra to invest, so I did this, and bought Invesco while it was low. Didn't touch my IRA, it will eventually recover.
 

phreddyp

Well-Known Member
My financial advisor suggested high yield 6 month CDs as a stable guaranteed investment. Re-evaluate every 6 months. I had extra to invest, so I did this, and bought Invesco while it was low. Didn't touch my IRA, it will eventually recover.
Hi yield certificate of depreciation, you need a new advisor!
 

LightRoasted

If I may ...
For your consideration ...

Our portfolio has seen only about 10% recovery of the losses sustained since Uncle lunchbucket decided to declare war on the middle class...and that 10% was just in the last 6 weeks. This will NOT continue.

I suppose my core question is, where can I plant the remainder to weather the storm on the horizon??
Shift it over to bonds??
Gold/Silver ETFs?
Pulling it out would suffer a HUGE penalty...so...how can I secure 35 years of investments?


Unfortunately, there really is no "risk free" "principle secure" investment vehicle, (by design), that you can transfer your 401 or IRA without penalty. Unless you are over 59 1/2 years old. The system has been designed as a catch-22. One has to balance, calculate, the possibility that a correction in the market, or a crash, could see a 20%-50% or more drop in value against what one would have to pay in penalties.

The 401K, and similar programs, were designed to dupe people for the purpose to bolster the stock market with billions of fresh capital using glossy brochures with positive charts and wishful, hopeful, pie-in-the-sky, sales pitches to give the illusion of safely and returns playing on people's sense of a safe financial future, while always downplaying the downturns as hiccups, always assuaging peoples concerns to keep their money in the market casino. "Things will get better", "This is just temporary downturn", they say. They wanted, propagandized, people into letting others manage their money. They do not want you to leave the table. Taking your money out of the market lessens the market's overall capitalization, something they do not want.

Even gold/silver ETF's, which are highly and extremely manipulated, is subject to corrections. It has been said that for every physical ounce of gold or silver in the COMEX, there is up to 1000 ounces of paper gold and silver. So they are trading non-existent gold and silver using paper. And no, 401K, IRA, rules do not allow the withdrawal, (there will be penalties involved), to purchase physical gold and/or silver.

Remember something about "recoveries", they can take years, or a decade, just to recover to the level where your losses began. How many have that time left in their lives to wait for a correction, and then for that investment to increase past that original level? The longest recovery took 13 years (Dotcom bust), just to come back to the level from before that crash. These deceivers use statements such as, "All too often, investors that have sold out during a crisis have locked in losses and possibly missed the rebound." And, "Riding out market declines and benefiting from potential rebounds may be a better plan." All to instill fear and doubt to keep your money in the markets.

For regular working class people, the market is a gamble controlled by people that do not care if you lose your investments. They will always be just fine themselves because they are using other peoples money, and yours, to skim their profits, as they play fast and lose.

I understand this can be a shock to many. That one's trust in the system can be, will be, obliterated. It is scary, frighting, and downright terrifying of the possibility of losing all ones retirement investments due to the chicanery by those trusted with the fiduciary responsibility of maintaining such investments. As well as the resentment from believing, and being suckered into entering into these type of retirement vehicles, believing the hype to cause one to feel FOMO, the fear of missing out.

So. What can you do? It is up to each individual to do their due diligence to ascertain their level of comfort when it comes to withdrawing some or all in these accounts.

For me personally? I have never followed the "advice" of the financial wizards, or government promotions of these retirement investment vehicles. I don't say this to mock, or downplay what others are going through. Just that I am a recalcitrant type of independent individual that has a very deep distrust of government and the financial market system preferring to go it myself, and if bad things happen because of my decisions, to fall on the sword of my own mistakes.

Some info about 401K withdrawals ...

 

TPD

the poor dad
If this really pans out, which I think it will, what happens to consumer spending? Consumer spending will go considerably down. Which means that stocks will have to necessarily follow due to the lack economic activity. Which means a crash, or serious correction, is coming.
FWIW, my little ole hardware store data is as follows:

Jan thru Oct 2022 - sales "only" down about 1% compared to last year. (take inflation into account and we are down even more)
So far in November, sales are down 10%! I'm anxious to compare this coming weekend to last year.

I talked to another business owner this week and he is seeing the same thing. It's almost as if when Nov 1st rolled around, consumers said whoa, things look bad - I better stop spending!

An indication of what's about to come? I think so.
 

phreddyp

Well-Known Member
For your consideration ...




Unfortunately, there really is no "risk free" "principle secure" investment vehicle, (by design), that you can transfer your 401 or IRA without penalty. Unless you are over 59 1/2 years old. The system has been designed as a catch-22. One has to balance, calculate, the possibility that a correction in the market, or a crash, could see a 20%-50% or more drop in value against what one would have to pay in penalties.

The 401K, and similar programs, were designed to dupe people for the purpose to bolster the stock market with billions of fresh capital using glossy brochures with positive charts and wishful, hopeful, pie-in-the-sky, sales pitches to give the illusion of safely and returns playing on people's sense of a safe financial future, while always downplaying the downturns as hiccups, always assuaging peoples concerns to keep their money in the market casino. "Things will get better", "This is just temporary downturn", they say. They wanted, propagandized, people into letting others manage their money. They do not want you to leave the table. Taking your money out of the market lessens the market's overall capitalization, something they do not want.

Even gold/silver ETF's, which are highly and extremely manipulated, is subject to corrections. It has been said that for every physical ounce of gold or silver in the COMEX, there is up to 1000 ounces of paper gold and silver. So they are trading non-existent gold and silver using paper. And no, 401K, IRA, rules do not allow the withdrawal, (there will be penalties involved), to purchase physical gold and/or silver.

Remember something about "recoveries", they can take years, or a decade, just to recover to the level where your losses began. How many have that time left in their lives to wait for a correction, and then for that investment to increase past that original level? The longest recovery took 13 years (Dotcom bust), just to come back to the level from before that crash. These deceivers use statements such as, "All too often, investors that have sold out during a crisis have locked in losses and possibly missed the rebound." And, "Riding out market declines and benefiting from potential rebounds may be a better plan." All to instill fear and doubt to keep your money in the markets.

For regular working class people, the market is a gamble controlled by people that do not care if you lose your investments. They will always be just fine themselves because they are using other peoples money, and yours, to skim their profits, as they play fast and lose.

I understand this can be a shock to many. That one's trust in the system can be, will be, obliterated. It is scary, frighting, and downright terrifying of the possibility of losing all ones retirement investments due to the chicanery by those trusted with the fiduciary responsibility of maintaining such investments. As well as the resentment from believing, and being suckered into entering into these type of retirement vehicles, believing the hype to cause one to feel FOMO, the fear of missing out.

So. What can you do? It is up to each individual to do their due diligence to ascertain their level of comfort when it comes to withdrawing some or all in these accounts.

For me personally? I have never followed the "advice" of the financial wizards, or government promotions of these retirement investment vehicles. I don't say this to mock, or downplay what others are going through. Just that I am a recalcitrant type of independent individual that has a very deep distrust of government and the financial market system preferring to go it myself, and if bad things happen because of my decisions, to fall on the sword of my own mistakes.

Some info about 401K withdrawals ...

I've never laughed so hard at a financial post in my life! The whole trick to a fairly secure retirement is to have your investments throw off enough income to NOT HAVE TO SELL in a market downturn. If there is no need to sell your assets to finance your retirement, then there is no reason to panic when the market takes a dump. Actually, a market downturn can be a boon, you get to buy stocks on the cheap and you can convert some of your IRA or 401K assets to a Roth IRA pay the taxes on the reduced value of the asset and live happily knowing that no additional taxes will be owed on the assets.
 

LightRoasted

If I may ...
For your consideration ...

I've never laughed so hard at a financial post in my life! The whole trick to a fairly secure retirement is to have your investments throw off enough income to NOT HAVE TO SELL in a market downturn. If there is no need to sell your assets to finance your retirement, then there is no reason to panic when the market takes a dump. Actually, a market downturn can be a boon, you get to buy stocks on the cheap and you can convert some of your IRA or 401K assets to a Roth IRA pay the taxes on the reduced value of the asset and live happily knowing that no additional taxes will be owed on the assets.
Such ad hominem drivel. Oh yes, oh masterful trader, BTFD. (For the uninitiated, Buy The F*cking Dip). But where oh where and when is a valid dip, or as you say to, "buy stocks on the cheap"? What is the exact signal to buy? Where is the exact bottom/dip? How many people actually know the workings of the financial markets, the overall performance of companies publicly traded, geopolitical events that can kill a market segment that will affect other markets, do they understand supply chain issues, labor strike issues, issues related to manufacturing and how it affect the markets, how energy, (shortage or gluts), effects everything, the relationship of each nation's currency index and how it affects trade, know how the shipping index relates, how inflation and interest rates affect the economy and businesses here and in rest of economic and financial world? Do they have the financial crystal ball to see what is coming and how to profit? Are they employed at a hedge fund or market player?

Unless people are very well schooled, a graduate of economics and the financial markets education, or have an SEC licence or brokerage, or unless spend an inordinate amount of time studying after working all day to keep up, the vast majority people simply do not know. Instead, people operate on auto-pilot hoping that the money balance shown on those monthly or quarterly statements just keep going up. And when that balance goes down, they look like a deer in the headlights.

Oh yes. And let's us not forget about the manipulation that goes on every single day through high frequency computer algorithmic automatic trading, which no one, without inside information, or working the financial desk of such traders, has any ability to compete at all. As well as the manipulations designed specifically to get the rube to "invest" in a stock only to lose all or a large portion of their investment. You can think of MEME stocks here. Or FTX (crypto) if so inclined. Aka pump and dump.

You speak as if "investing" is such a simple and riskless activity. Since everything has been "financialized" in some way or another, there is no way for the average person to comprehend the goings on in what is known as the stock/financial markets, in addition to a complete lack of economic fundamentals that now pervade these very markets. There is no more "market price discovery", since every aspect of these stock/financial markets are manipulated to no end.

The people that followed the advice to open a 401K, (or IRA. Roth or otherwise), either through their employer, or of themselves, did so on the premise of the presentations that focused only on the positive aspects, and that skipped or sugarcoated the downsides. "Oh it so easy. Just dedicate a small percentage of your weekly earnings paycheck and its automatically deduced and applied to your retirement investment account". Out of sight and out of mind. Designed as such to give the people a feeling of control and future prosperity without having to do the work to attain it. The people have been conned. It's as simple as that.

Now, would you please GFY?
 

phreddyp

Well-Known Member
Must be tough going thru life afraid and paranoid! I wonder how many of life little pleasures you have missed out on due to this!
Investing IS easy if you pay attention to what you invest in and do due diligence.
Sounds to me that you got burned once doing your own investments and then burned again when you used an advisor.
1st rule is this, nobody does a better job of controlling your investment than YOU, it ain't a set it and forget it hobby!

I actually thought about telling you to GFY but you have already done that to yourself! LOL
 
Last edited:

LightRoasted

If I may ...
For your consideration ...

Must be tough going thru life afraid and paranoid! I wonder how many of life little pleasures you have missed out on due to this!
Investing IS easy if you pay attention to what you invest in and do due diligence.
Sounds to me that you got burned once doing your own investments and then burned again when you used an advisor.
1st rule is this, nobody does a better job of controlling your investment than YOU, it ain't a set it and forget it hobby!

I actually thought about telling you to GFY but you have already done that to yourself! LOL
Afraid and Paranoid? Ha. Don't project your own failings unto me. I have never gambled in the casino that is the "markets". Therefore I could not have ever been "burned". In all trades there is always a winner and a loser, buyer and seller, with a middle man getting a cut. Financial markets controlled by those that operate it, to their personal benefit, or evil doings to pick the winners and losers. Also know as a counter party risk. Even cash/currency in people's pockets/wallets has a counter party; the bank that owns that "note".

I am merely informing the class of past financial history and the inherent coming financial dangers to be set upon us and how to, to the best of their ability, protect themselves financially. Just because I do not "invest" in any type of financial markets, does not mean I don't know, and understand, how the system works and the manipulation that occurs on a daily basis.

The average person, worker, simply does not have the financial knowledge and background to make well informed decisions and take the words of advisors, which profit from them, as prophecy. Why? Because most people are extremely ignorant, [not stupid], in such matters due to our failing education system. When things go south, does that advisor make up for the losses that a person, investor, might experience. Oh hell no. Yes, people can gloss over their investment information provided by their 401K or IRA account managers and/or put their monies in other vehicles. But they are using information from outside sources which lack the complete foundational understandings/explanations or what does on underneath or in the companies those investments represent. All the majority see the the possible returns shown to them, in which those decision are made. Completely lacking understanding in market dynamics or in any company's financial health.

And you come on here mocking them, me, saying that investing is as simple and risk free as putting their money in a saving account. If a person has $100K in a 401K, and that investment loses 50%, and it takes 2 years, or more, to recover back to $100K, that investment, even when back to $100K, has lost so much value, due to inflation, that it's pretty much a given that that investment will never keep, or increase to the level necessary to up with inflation. Even with those weekly or bi-weekly contributions from their paychecks.

And as I said, how many people, with a full time job, raising a family, and dealing with all of life's other problems, have the time to learn, and understand the first thing about investing? They don't. They have to rely on people that hand the customer rose colored glasses prior to pitching their spiel. These are the people that will suffer the most, because they put their trust in those that profit from their decisions. There are thousands and thousands of people employed by the huge financial conglomerates, and hedge funds, specifically to do due diligence when it comes to investing for the companies they work for. And even they get it wrong many times. (Even Sequoia Capital, which invested $210 million in FTX, which spends $100 Million a year to conduct their due diligence, lost that $210 Million and wrote that investment to zero on their books). And you expect us to believe your whitewashing BS that the investment process as being so easy? Most regular people trying to do due diligence on processes, markets, financial instruments can't even understand them the with watered down versions of information provided by the very industry that is geared for the sole purpose of separating them from their money?

I write these things because I hate to see people getting taken advantage of. Or lose so much they must enter the workforce once again to make ends meet when they should be comfortably, not ostentatiously, but a simple and humble retirement. What I write might be opinion, but there is some serious truth to what I write. Not some pithy insignificant invective diatribes that lack content and substance such as yourself.

Lightroasted,,,thanks for the posting...I will crossing that 59.5 threshold in months...will have to consider my best options.
Here is another way, absent from pulling out your monies, to protect what is currently in your retirement account, by moving those assets to very low risks vehicles not indexed to the stock markets. It can be complicated. But at least in this way, you won't be subject to any penalties, while limiting the risk of losing money when the volatility hits.

 

phreddyp

Well-Known Member
For your consideration ...


Afraid and Paranoid? Ha. Don't project your own failings unto me. I have never gambled in the casino that is the "markets". Therefore I could not have ever been "burned". In all trades there is always a winner and a loser, buyer and seller, with a middle man getting a cut. Financial markets controlled by those that operate it, to their personal benefit, or evil doings to pick the winners and losers. Also know as a counter party risk. Even cash/currency in people's pockets/wallets has a counter party; the bank that owns that "note".

I am merely informing the class of past financial history and the inherent coming financial dangers to be set upon us and how to, to the best of their ability, protect themselves financially. Just because I do not "invest" in any type of financial markets, does not mean I don't know, and understand, how the system works and the manipulation that occurs on a daily basis.

The average person, worker, simply does not have the financial knowledge and background to make well informed decisions and take the words of advisors, which profit from them, as prophecy. Why? Because most people are extremely ignorant, [not stupid], in such matters due to our failing education system. When things go south, does that advisor make up for the losses that a person, investor, might experience. Oh hell no. Yes, people can gloss over their investment information provided by their 401K or IRA account managers and/or put their monies in other vehicles. But they are using information from outside sources which lack the complete foundational understandings/explanations or what does on underneath or in the companies those investments represent. All the majority see the the possible returns shown to them, in which those decision are made. Completely lacking understanding in market dynamics or in any company's financial health.

And you come on here mocking them, me, saying that investing is as simple and risk free as putting their money in a saving account. If a person has $100K in a 401K, and that investment loses 50%, and it takes 2 years, or more, to recover back to $100K, that investment, even when back to $100K, has lost so much value, due to inflation, that it's pretty much a given that that investment will never keep, or increase to the level necessary to up with inflation. Even with those weekly or bi-weekly contributions from their paychecks.

And as I said, how many people, with a full time job, raising a family, and dealing with all of life's other problems, have the time to learn, and understand the first thing about investing? They don't. They have to rely on people that hand the customer rose colored glasses prior to pitching their spiel. These are the people that will suffer the most, because they put their trust in those that profit from their decisions. There are thousands and thousands of people employed by the huge financial conglomerates, and hedge funds, specifically to do due diligence when it comes to investing for the companies they work for. And even they get it wrong many times. (Even Sequoia Capital, which invested $210 million in FTX, which spends $100 Million a year to conduct their due diligence, lost that $210 Million and wrote that investment to zero on their books). And you expect us to believe your whitewashing BS that the investment process as being so easy? Most regular people trying to do due diligence on processes, markets, financial instruments can't even understand them the with watered down versions of information provided by the very industry that is geared for the sole purpose of separating them from their money?

I write these things because I hate to see people getting taken advantage of. Or lose so much they must enter the workforce once again to make ends meet when they should be comfortably, not ostentatiously, but a simple and humble retirement. What I write might be opinion, but there is some serious truth to what I write. Not some pithy insignificant invective diatribes that lack content and substance such as yourself.


Here is another way, absent from pulling out your monies, to protect what is currently in your retirement account, by moving those assets to very low risks vehicles not indexed to the stock markets. It can be complicated. But at least in this way, you won't be subject to any penalties, while limiting the risk of losing money when the volatility hits.

Anyone who is STUPID enough to follow YOUR advice deserves to fail, you are so far off base it's scary!
 

LightRoasted

If I may ...
For your consideration ...

It is being said: Black Friday online sales top $9 billion in new record. What they don't say, relative to inflation, it's actually lower, since overall online sales for Black Friday were up 2.3% year-over-year. And with inflation running at 9%-10% or better, this means that consumers are actually spending less.

All consumer demand is dying if you haven't noticed already. Almost nothing is being shipped in from Asia. The entire fiasco is due to, wink wink, "Ukraine". This caused rapid increase in gas prices and sent the global economy into a tailspin for other reasons too. Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, Valerie Noodleman, her husband and the crooks and ALL of those flying that stupid Ukraine flag are to blame. Suckers. Americans are idiots for going along w/the scam.

Btw, with inflation, there will always be "new records" set, in any measured category, simply due to the expansion of the money supply never ceasing and ever growing.
 

phreddyp

Well-Known Member
Funny how consumer demand is drying up at the same time Wal marts all over the state are bringing in sea containers filled with consumer goods, or maybe they are stockpiling them to send to the border wall.
 

Clem72

Well-Known Member
Our portfolio has seen only about 10% recovery of the losses sustained since Uncle lunchbucket decided to declare war on the middle class...and that 10% was just in the last 6 weeks. This will NOT continue.

I suppose my core question is, where can I plant the remainder to weather the storm on the horizon??
Shift it over to bonds??
Gold/Silver ETFs?
Pulling it out would suffer a HUGE penalty...so...how can I secure 35 years of investments?
If you held onto cash this long, might as well keep it. There's a not-insignificant chance that we will over-correct into deflation territory right as the housing market crashes and the auto manufacturer's finally catch up on inventory. Buy some property and cars at a discount.
 

LightRoasted

If I may ...
For your consideration ...

At it continues at a faster pace ...... They are working rapidly to increase unemployment to an official rate of 7.5%, just as Sen. Kennedy said.

15 Biggest Retailers In America Closing Down Stores Right Now​

1. Disney 2. GameStop 3. Best Buy 4. Microsoft 5. Walgreens 6. CVS 7. Bath & Body Works 8. L’Occitane 9. Chipotle 10. Office Depot
11. Gap 12. AT&T 13. Pier 1 Imports 14. Sally Beauty Supply 15. McDonald’s

 
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