market
- Thread starter dck4shrt
- Start date
.......
PsyOps
Pixelated
All it take is for someone like Greenspan to say "we are headed toward a recession" (when we really aren't) all the set the negative spin in that direction and actually causing a recession by the very sound of his voice so he can say "I told you so", then write a book about it.SpeedyG said:
Pete
Repete
Actually Greenspan is fairly accurate in his predictions. think back to the 90's with the huge run up of worthless .com companies. He warned and warned people armageddon was fast approaching. Not many listened and paid premiums for worthless companies that never had turned a profit and had P/E ratios in the stratosphere, then it hit.PsyOps said:All it take is for someone like Greenspan to say "we are headed toward a recession" (when we really aren't) all the set the negative spin in that direction and actually causing a recession by the very sound of his voice so he can say "I told you so", then write a book about it.
Chain729
CageKicker Extraordinaire
PsyOps said:
Heh. I've got about 40 years before I consider that- not that it makes me feel any better. However, I'm already on a skeleton budget and I can't afford to increase my contribution (currently, a measily 5%). Believe me, I'd love to.
The funds/stocks that I checked were from my non-retirement account. Some I plan to keep long-term, some not.
Yikes!Dutch6 said:
I don't have a lot of money tied up in the stock market - makes me too nervous.
Chain729
CageKicker Extraordinaire
PsyOps said:
Of that particular sector? Yes. How many people lost a lot of money with the burst? Quite a few.
Then the money flowed into the now over-inflated housing and overseas markets; both of which are due to pop.
Of course, overall, things are always OK in the long run. The money will just shift somewhere else, but that doesn't mean a lot of people won't get screwed in the process. Personally, I'd like to not be one of those people.
BTW, part of the reason that things weren't worse than they were: Greenspan is a freaking genius. I don't know how the new guy will be.
Last edited:
PsyOps
Pixelated
Now wait a minute... First you were siding with Greenspan that armageddon was on its way, now you are saying it "wasn't cataclysmic". You want it both ways?Pete said:
We had a dive in the marget following the dotcom burst, which put us in a brief recession. If you look at the charts on every stock index there has been a steady upward trend since. A couple of corrections along the way. The DOW was slightly above 7000 late 2002 and is now at over 12,000 (records not even seen during the dotcom era). Unemployment claims have been declining for the past 6 years and the GDP has been on a steady incline as well. Greenspan was wrong.
PsyOps
Pixelated
The tech sector has relied heavily on home computer sales and internet services. This was bound to peak when homes got saturated with computers.FromTexas said:
And I’m not saying we wont eventually hit another recession. This is the normal course our economy. But, I think all the panic (driven by a zealous retired chairman) is unnecessary.
Where my biggest worry is with the dems and all the huge spending programs they will be pushing through that will take its inevitable toll on our taxes.
PsyOps
Pixelated
It was a bubble burst not a major market correction or crash. You can't extract an incident and use it as a indicator of a general market trend. The dotcom era was market saturation that, by nature, would thin out. There just wasn't a public market to sustain it. So most of the dotcom companies fell flat and took theirFromTexas said:
The dotcom crash did not last through the two-year period you are specifying. The dotcom bubble peaked in late 1999 and remained relatively flat until around May 2002 when the crash began. There was a correction in Sep - Oct 2001 that quickly recovered by Nov 2001. The crash bottomed out around Sep 2002 then started it's trend back up.
Again, this "Greenspan spiral" you are talking about was due to an event, not a normal market trend, was short-lived and we quickly recovered. No cataclysmic event, our country is still here. And when you consider we suffered the largest attack EVER on American soil, and went to war on two fronts, our economy thrived despite it. Again, Greenspan was wrong.
Last edited:
FromTexas
This Space for Rent
PsyOps said:
How was Greenspan wrong? Show me where he said CATACLYSMIC events were going to happen to the market. He said people were "irrationally exhuberant" and filled with greed and because of this, the market was in for a big correction; which happened. You are having a hard time seperating the market, the economy, and even completely different parts of the cycle. You are latching onto Pete's colorful language to make an argument about Greenspan. You are also equating the current correction to Greenspan's words when it had everything to do with changes in fiscal and monetary policy in Asia than it had to do with him.
Yes, the economy is doing fine. Read my many posts about that. No one here said it wasn't, so you have a red herring in even attempting to use the current economy or belief in it to us discussing Greenspan's prediction of a market spiral due to massive overvaluation based on peoples greed.
Last edited:
