market

[Pete]

How was Greenspan wrong? Show me where he said CATACLYSMIC events were going to happen to the market. He said people were "irrationally exhuberant" and filled with greed and because of this, the market was in for a big correction; which happened. You are having a hard time seperating the market, the economy, and even completely different parts of the cycle. You are latching onto Pete's colorful language to make an argument about Greenspan. You are also equating the current correction to Greenspan's words when it had everything to do with changes in fiscal and monetary policy in Asia than it had to do with him.

Yes, the economy is doing fine. Read my many posts about that. No one here said it wasn't, so you have a red herring in even attempting to use the current economy or belief in it to us discussing Greenspan's prediction of a market spiral due to massive overevaluation based on peoples greed.

 

[FromTexas]

The dotcom bubble peaked in late 1999 and remained relatively flat until around May 2002 when the crash began.

Wrong. The first signs appeared as it peaked in late 1999. By February of 2000, the NASDAQ has started its downward spiral. It pretty much trended downward all the way to the beginning of 2003 without ever remaining static. Of course there were small moments where it would spike up for a month or so (because a market never just moves one way, but it trends in a direction).

 

[FromTexas]

See if I ever take up for you again...

 

[Pete]

See if I ever take up for you again...

It is tiring to argue a point when someone has latched to a crumb and wont let go.

 

[Pete]

And where is this "armageddon"? We had a brief recession due to the bubble burst, then quickly recovered to have one of the greatest periods of economic growth in history. You call that armageddon?

How many .com's got de-listed? How many went broke? How many people were rushing to sell their junk at huge losses? How many mutual funds took a huge bite in the ass? How many people crapped a brick when the margin call came in on their Earthlink stock? How many people took huge losses and huge setbacks in their retirement planning because of all the losses that resulted in EXACTLY what Greenspan warned of for months, even years?

One persons speed bump can be another persons cataclysmic event. I stand by my statement that Greenspan is fairly accurate in his assumptions. If you want to ignore the preeminent economists and financial minds of all time go right ahead.

 

[ylexot]

I think the point is that Greenspan's prediction could be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Greenspan predicts...people get scared and start selling...market tanks. It happens daily in the market. Broker X downgrades their assessment of stock WXYZ...people sell WXYZ...value of WXYZ goes down...broker X is hailed for their prediction.

 

[FromTexas]

I think the point is that Greenspan's prediction could be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Greenspan predicts...people get scared and start selling...market tanks. It happens daily in the market. Broker X downgrades their assessment of stock WXYZ...people sell WXYZ...value of WXYZ goes down...broker X is hailed for their prediction.

The internet crash Greenspan predicted and nobody listened to him. He started talking about in early 1998.

But, yes, small daily moves happen for many small reasons such as Greenspan speaking. However, large trends, cycles, and other major market moves over time don't happen because Greenspan or whoever predicts it. There are many heavy hitters predicting the movement on the markets daily. Greenspan has just happened to be right more often than not.

and all of this ignoring what Greenspan said; that the next down cycle is around the corner and the initial warning signs have begun. In addition, he cited that we have been in one of the longest upward moves in many decades and the market doesn't go up forever. This is all very logical and has nothing to do with the economy doing good right now. The economy can't do great forever and must correct itself from time to time (expansion/contraction).

 

[Pete]

The internet crash Greenspan predicted and nobody listened to him. He started talking about in early 1998.

But, yes, small daily moves happen for many small reasons such as Greenspan speaking. However, large trends, cycles, and other major market moves over time don't happen because Greenspan or whoever predicts it. There are many heavy hitters predicting the movement on the markets daily. Greenspan has just happened to be right more often than not.

and all of this ignoring what Greenspan said; that the next down cycle is around the corner and the initial warning signs have begun. In addition, he cited that we have been in one of the longest upward moves in many decades and the market doesn't go up forever. This is all very logical and has nothing to do with the economy doing good right now. The economy can't do great forever and must correct itself from time to time (expansion/contraction).

I even remember morons speculating what the fed was going to do if Greenspan was carrying a brief case or not. Some bullchit about 82% of the time he carried a briefcase to the meeting they raised interest rates. Greenspan only points to the obvious hidden among the oblivious. People over reacting he has nothing to do with.

 

[PsyOps]

How many .com's got de-listed? How many went broke? How many people were rushing to sell their junk at huge losses? How many mutual funds took a huge bite in the ass? How many people crapped a brick when the margin call came in on their Earthlink stock? How many people took huge losses and huge setbacks in their retirement planning because of all the losses that resulted in EXACTLY what Greenspan warned of for months, even years?

One persons speed bump can be another persons cataclysmic event. I stand by my statement that Greenspan is fairly accurate in his assumptions. If you want to ignore the preeminent economists and financial minds of all time go right ahead.

Are you disputing my data or just trying to test me? How many survived the dotcom bubble burst? How many are still millionaires despite it? How many companies that survived the dotcom burst made out big because other companies failed? How many investors benefited from those companies?

I’m not saying the dotcom death didn’t have an impact on some lives. What I am saying is the whole thing was short-lived and we, as a country of investors, entrepreneurs and businesses, survived it. The impact on an individual basis probably was cataclysmic to some (mostly because they put all their apples in one basket); but to the market in general it was a blip on the radar. The economy recovered with booming affair. Heck, the stock market crash of 1921 was exponentially more cataclysmic than the dotcom and we survived that too.

You want to ignore the data on the charts and ignore the fact that our country’s economy has prospered in the long-term in spite of things like WWI, the 1921 crash, the Great Depression, WWII, Viet Nam, Katrina, 9-11, and our current wars, then you go right ahead. The dotcom fiasco was nothing compared these other events.

 

[Pete]

Are you disputing my data or just trying to test me? How many survived the dotcom bubble burst? How many are still millionaires despite it? How many companies that survived the dotcom burst made out big because other companies failed? How many investors benefited from those companies?

I’m not saying the dotcom death didn’t have an impact on some lives. What I am saying is the whole thing was short-lived and we, as a country of investors, entrepreneurs and businesses, survived it. The impact on an individual basis probably was cataclysmic to some (mostly because they put all their apples in one basket); but to the market in general it was a blip on the radar. The economy recovered with booming affair. Heck, the stock market crash of 1921 was exponentially more cataclysmic than the dotcom and we survived that too.

You want to ignore the data on the charts and ignore the fact that our country’s economy has prospered in the long-term in spite of things like WWI, the 1921 crash, the Great Depression, WWII, Viet Nam, Katrina, 9-11, and our current wars, then you go right ahead. The dotcom fiasco was nothing compared these other events.

WTF point are you actually arguing? That I used "cataclysmic" or "armageddon"?

I am not getting it. Are you saying the market did not correct from 1999-2002 triggered by the .com bubble burst or what ever term you used? Are you saying Greenspan didn't predict that? And you are basing this all on the fact people didn't jump out the windows like they did in 1921?

 

[PsyOps]

WTF point are you actually arguing? That I used "cataclysmic" or "armageddon"?

I am not getting it. Are you saying the market did not correct from 1999-2002 triggered by the .com bubble burst or what ever term you used? Are you saying Greenspan didn't predict that? And you are basing this all on the fact people didn't jump out the windows like they did in 1921?

I challenged your using Greenspan’s “Armageddon was fast approaching” line to substantiate that Greenspan somehow accurately predicted a major market death, then when I challenged that you backed off by saying “It wasn't cataclysmic”. When you moved me in one direction I went there then you moved almost 180 degrees out.

The dotcom burst was not a correction. It was an anomaly. Greenspan may have predicted the “correction” (or crash) but it was hardly cataclysmic or Armageddon. The market, to me, is like a car going 60 mph. When it has to stop it can do so easily without any significant incident. Our markets run pretty much at this speed all the time. But if you decide to drive it at 90 then have to suddenly stop it will create problems. The dotcom was the car going 90.

Semantics aside, I was simply trying to say that the late 90s market dive was no big deal and we recovered quickly because we have a very robust economy. I’m not basing this on individual gains or losses, I am basing it on overall market and economic growth. Greenspan predicted “Armageddon” and he was wrong. There was no Armageddon, and our current growth, which has surpassed anything seen during the dotcom era, proves this.

 

[FromTexas]

No one ever argued that the American economy isn't fantastic and has survived many pitfalls. The fact is you forgot what your original argument was, and it had nothing to do with Armaggedon, cataclymic events, or if anyone agreed the American economy wasn't good. Your initial statement was an attack against Greenspans ability to decipher what is going on in the arguments (i.e. chicken or the egg).

 

[FromTexas]

All it take is for someone like Greenspan to say "we are headed toward a recession" (when we really aren't) all the set the negative spin in that direction and actually causing a recession by the very sound of his voice so he can say "I told you so", then write a book about it.

See? This is what Pete commented on and I followed up on. Nothing about whether the economy in America is great... Red herrings abound!

 

[Pete]

I challenged your using Greenspan’s “Armageddon was fast approaching” line to substantiate that Greenspan somehow accurately predicted a major market death, then when I challenged that you backed off by saying “It wasn't cataclysmic”. When you moved me in one direction I went there then you moved almost 180 degrees out.

The dotcom burst was not a correction. It was an anomaly. Greenspan may have predicted the “correction” (or crash) but it was hardly cataclysmic or Armageddon. The market, to me, is like a car going 60 mph. When it has to stop it can do so easily without any significant incident. Our markets run pretty much at this speed all the time. But if you decide to drive it at 90 then have to suddenly stop it will create problems. The dotcom was the car going 90.

Semantics aside, I was simply trying to say that the late 90s market dive was no big deal and we recovered quickly because we have a very robust economy. I’m not basing this on individual gains or losses, I am basing it on overall market and economic growth. Greenspan predicted “Armageddon” and he was wrong. There was no Armageddon, and our current growth, which has surpassed anything seen during the dotcom era, proves this.

Geezus effing Christ, I used litterary license get the hell over yourself. Greenspan warned of the dotcom bubble burst for months and months, it came true. Live with it.

Your argument is noted. Hell we even recovered form the crash of 24 and 87, it does not make them any less important.