Obama's Iran Nuke Deal

Yep, thats about how i understood the plan. A couple weeks might seem like a lot of time until you consider what we are talking about. Breeder reactors and enrichment facilities of the type we are talking about are not something you pick up and move around. At least none that i am aware of. additioanlly we (the E3/EU+3 or whatever) is in control of what fuel rods they get and the waste they produce. I can go into that more if you want, but i assume you understand the significance. So in the end we are letting them have nuclear material and nuclear power, but thats it, at least under this deal.

as for is that a good deal for us. I say yes. How many days between the time we inform Iran that we think they are trying to make a nuke and the day we get to inspect right now? Yet they are still working on nuclear power, they have the knowledge just not all the pieces for the bomb right now. They will get there with a deal or without one. If they dont do it on their own they will likely be able to buy help from one of the russian states or possibly Pakistan. Who knows, we have no control and no say without a deal. Not to mention, with or without a deal, we always have going to war in the middle east YET AGAIN as an option
so yes, this deal is OK. Not perfect, but OK.

Fair enough. And yeah, I have a resource that allows me to understand nuclear issues - e.g., how things work - fairly well.

Like I suggested in a previous post, I get that without agreeing to such a deal we might have nothing on this front and still have the sanctions fall apart. But if we're just discussing how good the deal is for us, I don't think it's a good one.
 

Midnightrider

Well-Known Member
Fair enough. And yeah, I have a resource that allows me to understand nuclear issues - e.g., how things work - fairly well.

Like I suggested in a previous post, I get that without agreeing to such a deal we might have nothing on this front and still have the sanctions fall apart. But if we're just discussing how good the deal is for us, I don't think it's a good one.

what would you like to have seen them do instead? What would you add or take from that deal to make it good for us?
 

This_person

Well-Known Member
I've read it too and i dont see any duping. I see a treaty. plain and simple. Not a perfect one, but one that allows for inspections that dont happen now and for control over the waste from their commercial reactors, again something that wont happen without a treaty.

So, as a treaty, it doesn't have veto capability from the president but requires a consent of the Senate, correct?
 

Kyle

Beloved Misanthrope
PREMO Member
If there's one thing this last 6 1/2 years has been… It's all about him!
 

Larry Gude

Strung Out
If there's one thing this last 6 1/2 years has been… It's all about him!

Not fair. It's been all about him since at least his high school years. In the profession of narcissists, he may well be #1, all time. It's actually pretty stunning how detached he is. It would be nice if we could at least look at something he's done that benefited someone else.
 

This_person

Well-Known Member
what would you like to have seen them do instead? What would you add or take from that deal to make it good for us?

First and foremost, the president said that there were only two conceivable options - this deal or war. If that were true, war would be the better option. However, the two things wrong with the president saying that are that it is patently NOT true, and the world knows this president would never go to war.

Sanctions were working. That brought Iran to the negotiations in the first place. More sanctions and tighter control of the ones in place would have helped get what was necessary. Sanctions required patience, and might not have given any credit to Obama, so they were off the table for him.

Iran has no business enriching uranium. No centrifuges. They want power plants, many countries can assist. Then monitor the spent fuel.
 
what would you like to have seen them do instead? What would you add or take from that deal to make it good for us?

As I suggested in a previous post, if we think it's important to try to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons and think it's our place to do so, then I would prefer a more threatening (and unilateral, as it would have to be) approach. Something like... Sign this agreement which basically says you're gonna let us do whatever we want whenever we want for as long as we want in order to verify that you aren't doing any of the things, related to nuclear materials and activity, that we don't want you to be doing. Hopefully we don't need to paint a picture for you to understand what the OR ELSE might look like, but if we do then ask and we'll do so.

Something like that would of course never happen. Whether it makes sense or not, or whether it would be too dangerous to do or not, we wouldn't have the stomach to do it. I'm realistic about that, so I don't offer that up as a plausible scenario.

As for what I'd have wanted to see in this deal, staying within the realm of realistic expectations, for starters that would be something much closer to anytime, anywhere inspection authority for the IAEA. Making some allowances for reasonableness, maybe a requirement that Iran allow the IAEA access to any undisclosed site as soon as reasonably possible but no later than 24 hours after a request is made. If for some reason the Iranians thought they shouldn't have to grant access to a particular site, e.g., because doing so might reveal sensitive military stuff, or if the Iranians otherwise failed to grant access within 24 hours, the matter would go to the Joint Commission. (I think I'd also want to alter the makeup of the Joint Commission and/or the voting requirements for it to require access or order that other things be done.) Then the Joint Commission would decide whether access had to be granted or not, say within 24 hours, and the Iranians would have no more than 12 more hours to comply.

I'd also want a process whereby the Joint Commission could make a determination that Iran had intentionally stalled in granting access without good reason to do so (with some possible good reasons spelled out, such as the sensitive military stuff I referred to). If such a determination was made, Iran would then lose the ability to stall in the future by pushing the matter to the Joint Commission, it would instead be required to grant access as soon possible after it was requested whether it wanted to or not. Maybe the maximum window would close some. Of if they failed to comply with the as soon as possible requirement, the Joint Commission would have the authority to set a much shorter time window. I'd also want the IAEA to have some authority to monitor a site it had concerns about even before it was granted access to it, to possibly be able to observe activities meant to cover up undisclosed activity.

The time periods might not be exactly what I've suggested, but 3 plus weeks of stall ability is too much - way too much. At most Iran should get a few days, and only that to the extent it has been acting in good faith. There should be provisions that allow the Joint Commission (or some other deciding body) to alter the rules, to limit Iran's stall ability, if it is determined that they'd acted in bad faith.
 

This_person

Well-Known Member
While Republicans refuse to acknowledge that Pres. Obama's nuclear peace deal is a huge victory for America, they also refuse to acknowledge that their beloved "St. Ronnie" was caught red-handed illegally selling weapons to Iran (and lying about it).



... View attachment 108989

Did you ever come up with what Reagan did has to do with this deal?
 

Midnightrider

Well-Known Member
As I suggested in a previous post, if we think it's important to try to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons and think it's our place to do so, then I would prefer a more threatening (and unilateral, as it would have to be) approach. Something like... Sign this agreement which basically says you're gonna let us do whatever we want whenever we want for as long as we want in order to verify that you aren't doing any of the things, related to nuclear materials and activity, that we don't want you to be doing. Hopefully we don't need to paint a picture for you to understand what the OR ELSE might look like, but if we do then ask and we'll do so.

Something like that would of course never happen. Whether it makes sense or not, or whether it would be too dangerous to do or not, we wouldn't have the stomach to do it. I'm realistic about that, so I don't offer that up as a plausible scenario.

As for what I'd have wanted to see in this deal, staying within the realm of realistic expectations, for starters that would be something much closer to anytime, anywhere inspection authority for the IAEA. Making some allowances for reasonableness, maybe a requirement that Iran allow the IAEA access to any undisclosed site as soon as reasonably possible but no later than 24 hours after a request is made. If for some reason the Iranians thought they shouldn't have to grant access to a particular site, e.g., because doing so might reveal sensitive military stuff, or if the Iranians otherwise failed to grant access within 24 hours, the matter would go to the Joint Commission. (I think I'd also want to alter the makeup of the Joint Commission and/or the voting requirements for it to require access or order that other things be done.) Then the Joint Commission would decide whether access had to be granted or not, say within 24 hours, and the Iranians would have no more than 12 more hours to comply.

I'd also want a process whereby the Joint Commission could make a determination that Iran had intentionally stalled in granting access without good reason to do so (with some possible good reasons spelled out, such as the sensitive military stuff I referred to). If such a determination was made, Iran would then lose the ability to stall in the future by pushing the matter to the Joint Commission, it would instead be required to grant access as soon possible after it was requested whether it wanted to or not. Maybe the maximum window would close some. Of if they failed to comply with the as soon as possible requirement, the Joint Commission would have the authority to set a much shorter time window. I'd also want the IAEA to have some authority to monitor a site it had concerns about even before it was granted access to it, to possibly be able to observe activities meant to cover up undisclosed activity.

The time periods might not be exactly what I've suggested, but 3 plus weeks of stall ability is too much - way too much. At most Iran should get a few days, and only that to the extent it has been acting in good faith. There should be provisions that allow the Joint Commission (or some other deciding body) to alter the rules, to limit Iran's stall ability, if it is determined that they'd acted in bad faith.

I'll start by saying that I would like both of those options better than the current deal, but as you say the first isn't very realistic. So I will address only the second.

I don't think that the Iranian contingent could have sold 24hr inspection notice back home. But even still, I don't think the difference between 3 days and 21 is all that significant in this case. They aren't going to be able to move a heavy water reactor if they are building one, so we are left with enrichment. There we are talking about huge banks of cascading centrifuges (thousands all strung together) and the related infrastructure. The process to take ore to a gas isn't all that complicated, but it does require a lot of equipment and power, and it generates a bunch of waste. moving all that might be possible in three weeks, but not the facilities. even if they move it we would be able to see that with satellites.
In either case, if they were able to either clandestinely build a reactor or enrichment facilities, I am pretty sure there would be contamination that would act as a signature of a hidden nuclear program.

In the end what brought us to the table was twofold.
First Iran is already enriching uranium. Its only a matter of time until they get a bomb together if that's what hey want.
Second, as you eluded to previously, we couldn't stop the other parties to the treaty from lifting their sanctions, and it seemed like they were ready to.


My bigger issue with the deal is that we allow them to enrich at all. I would have preferred a deal where they had to buy fuel rods or pellets from a party to the treaty and return the spent fuel. That would continue until they have earned trust by complying with the terms. That way you know exactly what they have. Realistically I think that is the deal we have now as from what I am reading their systems aren't reliable enough to produce much.
 
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glhs837

Power with Control
I'll start by saying that I would like both of those options better than the current deal, but as you say the first isn't very realistic. So I will address only the second.

I don't think that the Iranian contingent could have sold 24hr inspection notice back home. But even still, I don't think the difference between 3 days and 21 is all that significant in this case. They aren't going to be able to move a heavy water reactor if they are building one, so we are left with enrichment. There we are talking about huge banks of cascading centrifuges (thousands all strung together) and the related infrastructure. The process to take ore to a gas isn't all that complicated, but it does require a lot of equipment and power, and it generates a bunch of waste. moving all that might be possible in three weeks, but not the facilities. even if they move it we would be able to see that with satellites.
In either case, if they were able to either clandestinely convert a reactor for heavy water use, or to have hidden enrichment facilities, I am pretty sure there would be a

Good thing they dont suddenly have billions of dollars to build hidden facilities.... oh, wait.......
 

Midnightrider

Well-Known Member
First and foremost, the president said that there were only two conceivable options - this deal or war. If that were true, war would be the better option. However, the two things wrong with the president saying that are that it is patently NOT true, and the world knows this president would never go to war.

Sanctions were working. That brought Iran to the negotiations in the first place. More sanctions and tighter control of the ones in place would have helped get what was necessary. Sanctions required patience, and might not have given any credit to Obama, so they were off the table for him.

Iran has no business enriching uranium. No centrifuges. They want power plants, many countries can assist. Then monitor the spent fuel.

There is only one line in this post I can agree with, the rest is asinine.

War would not be a better option. We as a country don't need to send any of our children to die over this, not at this point.

The sanctions, they were working so well that Iran is enriching uranium. They even have a few advanced centrifuges. Plus they were building a heavy water reactor. If the significance of that is lost on you, look it up. How is that an indicator of the sanctions working?
 

Hijinx

Well-Known Member
There is only one line in this post I can agree with, the rest is asinine.

War would not be a better option. We as a country don't need to send any of our children to die over this, not at this point.

The sanctions, they were working so well that Iran is enriching uranium. They even have a few advanced centrifuges. Plus they were building a heavy water reactor. If the significance of that is lost on you, look it up. How is that an indicator of the sanctions working?

The sanctions, they were working so well that Iran is enriching uranium. They even have a few advanced centrifuges. Plus they were building a heavy water reactor. If the significance of that is lost on you, look it up. How is that an indicator of the sanctions working?
[/QUOTE]

Obviously the significance of those things are lost on Obama and you.

Those things are only needed in Iran if they intend to build a weapon.

This deal does not make them remove them and if you and Obama think they will not , I have a bridge to sell you.
 

Midnightrider

Well-Known Member
Obviously the significance of those things are lost on Obama and you.

Those things are only needed in Iran if they intend to build a weapon.

This deal does not make them remove them and if you and Obama think they will not , I have a bridge to sell you.

As usual, you are misinformed. You can not run a power plant unless you either have enriched uranium or a heavy water reactor.
 

Midnightrider

Well-Known Member
An interesting, and rather logical, read on the issue by uncle Pat.

http://buchanan.org/blog/the-gops-iran-dilemma-16263

But before the party commits to abrogating the Iran deal in 2017, the GOP should consider whether it would be committing suicide in 2016.

For even if Congress votes to deny Obama authority to lift U.S. sanctions on Iran, the U.S. will vote to lift sanctions in the U.N. Security Council. And Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, all parties to the deal, will also lift sanctions.

I usually am a 75/25 (agree/he is effing crazy) kind of guy on pat. In this case I am finding very little to disagree with.
 
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