Oh, My. Global Warming is killing us! <NOT>

[Lenny]

You can blame it all on President Bush, neocons, Christian conservatives and General motors.

http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2006/hurricane-atlantic-2006-below-normal-season.htm

 

[kwillia]

You can blame it all on President Bush, neocons, Christian conservatives and General motors.

http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2006/hurricane-atlantic-2006-below-normal-season.htm

Oh Mr. Lenny... it very well could be because of all the icebergs melting causing a reduction in sea temperature and you know it...

 

[slaphappynmd]

You can blame it all on President Bush, neocons, Christian conservatives and General motors.

http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2006/hurricane-atlantic-2006-below-normal-season.htm

just you wait, dont you know mr. Bush controls the weather, they will come...

 

[ylexot]

Have another nail...
Greenland's glaciers have been shrinking for 100 years

GLOBAL WARMING! GEORGE BUSH!

 

[bcp]

cool, more fresh water added to the lakes and rivers.
maybe it will help flush out the filth that has built up over the years.

 

[truby20]

You can blame it all on President Bush, neocons, Christian conservatives and General motors.

http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2006/hurricane-atlantic-2006-below-normal-season.htm

OMGZ! Now we are ABOVE normal!

http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2006/hurricane-atlantic-2006-below-normal-season.htm

And Ernesto has a pretty scary forecast track.

These cherry picked stories about snow in Africa, a slow start to the hurricane season, or the growth of some glaciers does not disprove that the Earth is warming over time.

 

[Pete]

Oh Mr. Lenny... it very well could be because of all the icebergs melting causing a reduction in sea temperature and you know it...

All your icebergs are belong to us.

 

[czygvtwkr]

OMGZ! Now we are ABOVE normal!

http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2006/hurricane-atlantic-2006-below-normal-season.htm

And Ernesto has a pretty scary forecast track.

These cherry picked stories about snow in Africa, a slow start to the hurricane season, or the growth of some glaciers does not disprove that the Earth is warming over time.

Neither do other cherry picked stories prove global warming. And what about the cooling and warming cycles that the earth expierenced before man even lived indoors?

 

[hvp05]

And Ernesto has a pretty scary forecast track.

Do you freak out as much when your fortune teller relays a "vision" that something "bad" might happen to you within the next year?

Going over a "forecast track" is ridiculous if the storm is barely hurricane-strength.

And, if you think about it, another New Orleans storm might not be such a bad thing... if it would blow Nagin to Oz.

 

[Ken King]

There are so many factors impacting the climate that it is no wonder our weather experts are accurate only about 1/2 the time. I think a factor rarely considered by environmentalists is the theory of the Milankovitch Cycles and their effect on the Earth's climatical changes.

 

[truby20]

Do you freak out as much when your fortune teller relays a "vision" that something "bad" might happen to you within the next year?

Going over a "forecast track" is ridiculous if the storm is barely hurricane-strength.

And, if you think about it, another New Orleans storm might not be such a bad thing... if it would blow Nagin to Oz.

First off Ernesto is not even a hurricane, so it cannot be considered "barely hurricane strength"

Secondly, if you are going to say a forecast is about as accurate as having your fortune told then I totally understand the audience I'm dealing with.

Cause you know, sometimes all those millions of dollars and thousands of hours spent on research really do produce something:

Official Hurricane Katrina forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center 3 days before landfall

 

[hvp05]

First off Ernesto is not even a hurricane, so it cannot be considered "barely hurricane strength"

I am not claiming it is a hurricane. I am looking at your forecast and realizing that, by the time it makes landfall it is expected to have sustained wind speeds "> 73 mph". Well, 74 mph and 75 mph are greater than 73... but barely hurricane strength. And barely much to worry about.

The levy system in N.O. remains questionable, but...

Secondly, if you are going to say a forecast is about as accurate as having your fortune told then I totally understand the audience I'm dealing with.

Considering that the forecast puts the eye over somewhere between central FL and central LA - which, by my quick measurement is ~650 statute miles, I must be skeptical of any claim of "accuracy".

Cause you know, sometimes all those millions of dollars and thousands of hours spent on research really do produce something:

Yeah, a 50/50 hit rate.

3 days before landfall

I'll bet you were the smartest kid in your "Comparing Apples to Oranges" class. Katrina 3 days prior to landfall... but your Ernesto forecast puts landfall at next Friday (actually, it's so far ahead they don't say that, but I will guess that pretty safely), which, by my calendar is still 5+ days away. Not to mention what different effects might currently be taking place or will be taking place in the atmosphere as the storm approaches land, thus making the disparity larger.

Since you're so exact in your broad speculation, you should not forget to include Texas.

This has been fun... wanna go again?

 

[truby20]

This has been fun... wanna go again?

Yeah I have a few minutes before I head out....

I am not claiming it is a hurricane. I am looking at your forecast and realizing that, by the time it makes landfall it is expected to have sustained wind speeds "> 73 mph". Well, 74 mph and 75 mph are greater than 73... but barely hurricane strength. And barely much to worry about.

What are you talking about here? The graphic on that page was just a track forecast, that "H" means it is a hurricane toward the end. A hurricane has a sustained wind of at least 74 mph. The actual intensity forecast for Ernesto at the final forecast position shown is 120 mph, but to find that you have to look at the discussion (but the intensity levels are given in knots, 1 knot ~ 1.15 mph).

The levy system in N.O. remains questionable, but...

Considering that the forecast puts the eye over somewhere between central FL and central LA - which, by my quick measurement is ~650 statute miles, I must be skeptical of any claim of "accuracy".

Yeah, a 50/50 hit rate.

All I said was that the 5 day forecast for Ernesto looked scary. I never said anything about Katrina, N.O., or where it would make landfall. Believe me a category 3 hurricane sitting in the Gulf of Mexico is not fun for anyone...well maybe oil traders who can bid up the prices on speculation that it will impact the gulf oil rigs.

I'll bet you were the smartest kid in your "Comparing Apples to Oranges" class. Katrina 3 days prior to landfall... but your Ernesto forecast puts landfall at next Friday (actually, it's so far ahead they don't say that, but I will guess that pretty safely), which, by my calendar is still 5+ days away. Not to mention what different effects might currently be taking place or will be taking place in the atmosphere as the storm approaches land, thus making the disparity larger.

Since you're so exact in your broad speculation, you should not forget to include Texas.

I just included the Katrina graphic because you said a forecast is the same as a fortune...50/50 right. And no need to include posts from Accuweather, they are just trying to grab web traffic with sensational stories. Stick to NHC , they're not trying to make a profit.

 

[hvp05]

Yeah I have a few minutes before I head out....

Thanks for squeezing me in.

The actual intensity forecast for Ernesto at the final forecast position shown is 120 mph, but to find that you have to look at the discussion (but the intensity levels are given in knots, 1 knot ~ 1.15 mph).

I stand corrected. However, the point remains that unknowns like the influence of Cuba and specific atmospheric conditions at the time could cause the actual number to differ greatly from the projection.

This is minor, but: why did you say 120 mph, when it obviously should be 115 mph?

All I said was that the 5 day forecast for Ernesto looked scary.

No more than any other low-level Cat. 3...

Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. By the NWS NHC.

When this is still 5+ days out, should anyone really be getting jittery? Supposedly, they are used to these, and so is their infrastructure. Perhaps, even though it is "scary" to you, it is not so to them. (Bruzilla, do you have any input?)

I never said anything about Katrina, N.O., or where it would make landfall.

Okay, I'm sorry. I guess I jumped the gun when you were giving all that "scary" talk... and the most probable path goes very near N.O.... and you posted that link for the "Official Hurricane Katrina forecast". I thought you were trying to draw a connection there, but since you said you weren't I'll believe you.

I just included the Katrina graphic because you said a forecast is the same as a fortune...50/50 right.

So you disagree with my hyperbole. Does that negate the point?

And no need to include posts from Accuweather, they are just trying to grab web traffic with sensational stories.

What if they end up being correct? What if their forecast (taking the storm into TX) beats the NHC's? I'll have to get you one of these.

 

[hvp05]

When this is still 5+ days out, should anyone really be getting jittery?

We are now 2 1/3 days later and the new track looks like this. Supposed to run up FL's spine and turn inland. But I'm sure you know this by now.

Highest sustained winds are expected to be 69 mph (60 kts.), which would categorize Ernesto as a strong tropical storm... not even Cat. 1.

Still scared, truby?

 

[ylexot]

We are now 2 1/3 days later and the new track looks like this. Supposed to run up FL's spine and turn inland. But I'm sure you know this by now.

Highest sustained winds are expected to be 69 mph (60 kts.), which would categorize Ernesto as a strong tropical storm... not even Cat. 1.

Still scared, truby?

I personally like how the current predicted path is outside of the predicted swath that they had 2 days ago.

 

[vraiblonde]

Can I just say? I think environmentalists are the most arrogant, yet vapid, people on the planet. For some reason they have this idea that not only are hurricanes and tornadoes a recent phenomenon, but they think they can actually DO something about it.

War protesters are arrogant, too, but not quite like their green brethren. At least war protesters are dealing with other humans that can conceivably be reasoned with. Enviros are trying to talk a tsunami out of killing people.

 

[Pete]

What I would like to know is this.

If they say that over the last 100 years the average temp of the earth has risen 1 degree, how do they know that 1906 thermometer makers could nail the accuracy of their product 100%? What if a 1906 thermometer had an error of -/+ 1 dergree? What if the guy writing down the official tempuratures that were in the average had a googly eye and just got it close?

 

[kwillia]

WTF... who the hell do those Florida politicians think they are expecting residents to prepare themselves...

"Please make sure that you have water, you have food and you have all the necessities that you are going to need," said Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Alvarez.

 

[truby20]

I personally like how the current predicted path is outside of the predicted swath that they had 2 days ago.

What are you talking about?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/graphics/AT05/11.AL0506W.GIF

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W+gif/150927W_sm.gif

The current location is within the predicted swath from Sunday.

Or do you mean you like how the forecast changed?? How the 3-5 day position swath has moved to the east? If you expect a tropical forecast to remain constant throughout the period then you need to travel about 50 years in the future.

But of course we could all be relying on Accuweather's forecast from 3 days ago that had the storm affecting Texas...you there hyp05??