Patch...

[Chasey_Lane]

Princess, would you like to explain exactly what Fire District 8 means?

 

[Chasey_Lane]

results

 

[somdrenter]

Hey, look...someone who made money on the same street (in about a year). results

Chasey, I must say you have a knack for finding these:

Purchased with an ARM at an initial rate of 9.7%, tied to the LIBOR +4.9%, first change capped at 12% with a minimum at 9.7%, change date Dec ’09.

 

[Chasey_Lane]

Chasey, I must say you have a knack for finding these:

Purchased with an ARM at an initial rate of 9.7%, tied to the LIBOR +4.9%, first change capped at 12% with a minimum at 9.7%, change date Dec ’09.

So what do you think about their profit?

MADISON, JAMES A & DEBORAH M L T/E Date: 12/29/2006 Price: 389,000
Type: IMPROVED ARMS-LENGTH Deed1: JWW/ 2922/ 173 Deed2:
Seller: QUALITY BUILT HOMES INC Date: 11/15/2005 Price: $323,422
Type: IMPROVED ARMS-LENGTH Deed1: EWA/ 2658/ 328 Deed2:

 

[somdrenter]

So what do you think about their profit?

I think the profit is excellent!

What do you think of the mortgage terms for the new buyer? Keep posting 'em and we may see a trend!

 

[Chasey_Lane]

I think the profit is excellent!

Then I proved my point!

What do you think of the mortgage terms for the new buyer? Keep posting 'em and we may see a trend!

Why would I care about someone's financing?

 

[somdrenter]

results

WOW! Cash back at closing! Any idea Chasey, of what that could be an indication of?

 

[Chasey_Lane]

WOW! Cash back at closing! Any idea Chasey, of what that could be an indication of?

 

[somdrenter]

Then I proved my point!
Why would I care about someone's financing?

You lost me there. You can’t think of any reason how ARM’s could be detrimental to the market? With a possible rate jump from 9.7% to a 12%, what could happen to the mortgage payments? Keep in mind, borrowers were being approved at the lowest quoted rate, not the full re-set.

 

[somdrenter]

I take that as a no?

 

[RadioCtrlDWife]

integration of transient variations

...would that make?

If a person with zero financial troubles would be better off paying a $1500 a month mortgage instead of a $1500 a month rent, then why wouldn't the same thing hold true for a person with money trouble?

The credit finangling or rule breaking or cheating or whatever it is helped people get into homes. As long as they can make their payment, in time, they'll most likely be better off. By a lot. If they couldn't make a $1500 mortgage, they can't make a $1500 rent.

Same/same dollars then pick own over rent is all I'm saying.

I am old fashioned. I don't buy a house to sell it next week or next year.
We bought our house because it was the place we wanted to live and at the same time run a microbiz as consulting engineers.
We wanted the space when we first saw the house and LAND for ham antennas [virtually invisible in the trees]. If we rented, we would have to get the landlord's permission, and take the antennas down when we moved- been there done that.
We spent the first winter here tweaking our home's energy efficiency in unconventional [to code] ways. No landlord would tolerate such experimental modifications to their house, and if they did allow the tenant do this radical stuff, the landlord would reap the resale benefit of said labor. Our heat bill is about 30% of what the previous owner paid and we are toasty warm, he was always cold and still paid 3x what we do now.
And so on.
So what if the market value of our house is stagnant or even dropping a few percent this season or next. We have comfort and a home we can continually improve and make what we want.
The key factor here is integration over time.
The curve seems to be going down only if you fail to understand the long term. The Calculus teaches us that integration of transient variations will revel the true overall slope, The slope of value over time always goes up for housing.
Also we like the tax deduction for interest.
Damit Kirk, I'm an Engineer, not a banker!
Bill
IIII's R Us

 

[somdrenter]

The curve seems to be going down only if you fail to understand the long term. The Calculus teaches us that integration of transient variations will revel the true overall slope, The slope of value over time always goes up for housing.
Also we like the tax deduction for interest.
Damit Kirk, I'm an Engineer, not a banker!
Bill
IIII's R Us

Absolutely. And if history teaches us anything about the market, it shows that this slope rises in step with inflation (roughly 3% a year over inflation). So, given all the rise/fall/rise (variations), would this not indicate a reversion to the mean has happened, and would possibly happen again?

A possible example (not that I 100% agree with it)
Projecting Shiller's graph

 

[awpitt]

We spent the first winter here tweaking our home's energy efficiency in unconventional [to code] ways. No landlord would tolerate such experimental modifications to their house, and if they did allow the tenant do this radical stuff, the landlord would reap the resale benefit of said labor. Our heat bill is about 30% of what the previous owner paid and we are toasty warm, he was always cold and still paid 3x what we do now.

Just wondering, what "unconventional [to code]" things did you do to improve energy efficiency?

 

[Larry Gude]

Nice post...

I am old fashioned. I don't buy a house to sell it next week or next year.
We bought our house because it was the place we wanted to live and at the same time run a microbiz as consulting engineers.
We wanted the space when we first saw the house and LAND for ham antennas [virtually invisible in the trees]. If we rented, we would have to get the landlord's permission, and take the antennas down when we moved- been there done that.
We spent the first winter here tweaking our home's energy efficiency in unconventional [to code] ways. No landlord would tolerate such experimental modifications to their house, and if they did allow the tenant do this radical stuff, the landlord would reap the resale benefit of said labor. Our heat bill is about 30% of what the previous owner paid and we are toasty warm, he was always cold and still paid 3x what we do now.
And so on.
So what if the market value of our house is stagnant or even dropping a few percent this season or next. We have comfort and a home we can continually improve and make what we want.
The key factor here is integration over time.
The curve seems to be going down only if you fail to understand the long term. The Calculus teaches us that integration of transient variations will revel the true overall slope, The slope of value over time always goes up for housing.
Also we like the tax deduction for interest.
Damit Kirk, I'm an Engineer, not a banker!
Bill
IIII's R Us

...right there.

 

[RadioCtrlDWife]

Tin foil hats in the winter...

She needs to add this graph into her frequency bank...

House prices | A hole in the roof | Economist.com

This is Bill writing. My wife, Kim, and I share the forum name.

Referencing the above captioned graph only confirms the point I made.
We can not see the future but we know that if we include data points from long ago-say from 1950 and integrate to smooth the curve, the overall slope becomes undeniably positive even to the most casual observer.
What is less obvious to one not skilled in the art of the calculus is even the truncated time frame shown in that graph clearly integrates with a positive slope overall. I have not done a formal proof or applied a plainoniter to the graph, but my experience reading such graphs tells me the overall slope is surely positive, even with the sharp negative slope at the very end. This is because the area under the curve with a positive slope far exceeds the small but sharp negative transient negative slope of the last 10% of few data points shown.
Just a technical point-- not to start an argument.
Bill

 

[smilin]

This is Bill writing. My wife, Kim, and I share the forum name.

Referencing the above captioned graph only confirms the point I made.
We can not see the future but we know that if we include data points from long ago-say from 1950 and integrate to smooth the curve, the overall slope becomes undeniably positive even to the most casual observer.
What is less obvious to one not skilled in the art of the calculus is even the truncated time frame shown in that graph clearly integrates with a positive slope overall. I have not done a formal proof or applied a plainoniter to the graph, but my experience reading such graphs tells me the overall slope is surely positive, even with the sharp negative slope at the very end. This is because the area under the curve with a positive slope far exceeds the small but sharp negative transient negative slope of the last 10% of few data points shown.
Just a technical point-- not to start an argument.
Bill

I am still looking up all the big words in your post, but according to the Economist article real estate prices have run up by 134% in the last ten years. The Schiller chart says around 80%.
Prices have dropped in our area 3% over the last year, somehow Bill's point is well taken

 

[RadioCtrlDWife]

Just wondering, what "unconventional [to code]" things did you do to improve energy efficiency?

We covered all of the exposed cinder block walls in walk in lower level with reflectex. We covered the FLOOR of the unfinished part of the lower level with reflectex wherever it was not carpeted [about 300 sq ft]. All seams between the reflectex sheets are fully sealed with aluminum foil tape. All breaches of the wall have been sealed with expanding foam.
We covered the reflectex inside on the walls with wool blankets. This lower level was a massive heat sink of about 1000 sq ft of concrete total uncovered and in contact with the outside.
Every square inch of exposed concrete is now covered with reflectex and sealed like a space craft. The hot water heater is wrapped with fiberglass insulation and then a layer of reflectex.
Kim made window blankets out of reflectex with magnetic strips and we put those on at night.
The fist night we used the heat pump, it seemed not to do much at all. It was very cold and we switched on on the "emergency" mode at the thermostat. This is a horribly inefficient mode that uses brute force electric resistance heating elements to assist the heat pump. After a short time the circuit breaker would trip. This is amazing-- the wires were not properly tightened on the circuit breaker inside the panel. The connecting was so poor that the face of the panel itself was hot with the wasted energy of this high resistance connection. After we tightened the wiring, the heat pump worked like a charm,
We tossed the old dryer and got a new very efficient dryer and I vent the heat from the dryer back into the house in winter with a louver made specifically for recovering the dryer exhaust heat.
We also use [sparingly] some spot zone heating with several DiLongi Micathermic new age high efficiency resistance heaters used on demand only when the space [office, lab, or bedroom] is occupied, with the mean temperature of the majority of house kept much lower.
The guy who lived here before wasted as much in lost energy as his mortgage payment [after interest tax write off] in cash dollars to smeco during the winter.
I have to go back to work now, but I would love to blog some of this.
Our winter projects this year are finishing a solar assist for the heat pump I stated last year [now off line] and a passive solar oven.
We also have the beginnings of a solar electrical supplement, but it is more a statement at this point than a net energy source.
End of rant.
Bill
IIII's R Us

BTW Does anyone know of a commercial leasing company that does lease to purchase financing on specialized software in $10k range?
We need to update one of our CAD CAM platforms before a window closes for "legacy users" [those of us who bought the thing 20 years ago and made it the standard] to convert to the modern version of our tool.
They issued "last call' . They will no longer support the old platform in any way [the small company we dealt with was sold to Agilent] We have to do it now or pay 20-30 grand next year or the year after. We use this tool to do contract design and it is not optional for us.
Would a term loan make more sense than a lease? I am asking my banker the same things and just want other expert opinions. Any input is welcomed.
Thanks

 

[somdrenter]

This is Bill writing. My wife, Kim, and I share the forum name.

Referencing the above captioned graph only confirms the point I made.
We can not see the future but we know that if we include data points from long ago-say from 1950 and integrate to smooth the curve, the overall slope becomes undeniably positive even to the most casual observer.
What is less obvious to one not skilled in the art of the calculus is even the truncated time frame shown in that graph clearly integrates with a positive slope overall. I have not done a formal proof or applied a plainoniter to the graph, but my experience reading such graphs tells me the overall slope is surely positive, even with the sharp negative slope at the very end. This is because the area under the curve with a positive slope far exceeds the small but sharp negative transient negative slope of the last 10% of few data points shown.
Just a technical point-- not to start an argument.
Bill

Projecting Shiller's graph

 

[awpitt]

We covered all of the exposed cinder block walls in walk in lower level with reflectex. We covered the FLOOR of the unfinished part of the lower level with reflectex wherever it was not carpeted [about 300 sq ft]. All seams between the reflectex sheets are fully sealed with aluminum foil tape. All breaches of the wall have been sealed with expanding foam.
We covered the reflectex inside on the walls with wool blankets. This lower level was a massive heat sink of about 1000 sq ft of concrete total uncovered and in contact with the outside.
Every square inch of exposed concrete is now covered with reflectex and sealed like a space craft. The hot water heater is wrapped with fiberglass insulation and then a layer of reflectex.
Kim made window blankets out of reflectex with magnetic strips and we put those on at night.
The fist night we used the heat pump, it seemed not to do much at all. It was very cold and we switched on on the "emergency" mode at the thermostat. This is a horribly inefficient mode that uses brute force electric resistance heating elements to assist the heat pump. After a short time the circuit breaker would trip. This is amazing-- the wires were not properly tightened on the circuit breaker inside the panel. The connecting was so poor that the face of the panel itself was hot with the wasted energy of this high resistance connection. After we tightened the wiring, the heat pump worked like a charm,
We tossed the old dryer and got a new very efficient dryer and I vent the heat from the dryer back into the house in winter with a louver made specifically for recovering the dryer exhaust heat.
We also use [sparingly] some spot zone heating with several DiLongi Micathermic new age high efficiency resistance heaters used on demand only when the space [office, lab, or bedroom] is occupied, with the mean temperature of the majority of house kept much lower.
The guy who lived here before wasted as much in lost energy as his mortgage payment [after interest tax write off] in cash dollars to smeco during the winter.
I have to go back to work now, but I would love to blog some of this.
Our winter projects this year are finishing a solar assist for the heat pump I stated last year [now off line] and a passive solar oven.
We also have the beginnings of a solar electrical supplement, but it is more a statement at this point than a net energy source.

Thanks for sharing. Very interesting.

 

[RadioCtrlDWife]

Projecting Shiller's graph

The graph the link invokes also proves the point when examined fully.
Note he says the 'bottom" of the current cycle is 2011-- look closely and you will see he applies a sinusoidal function to predict the coming recovery- much like recovery of a spring/shock damped oscillation or the "ring" of a bell when struck in a physics analogy.
Do you see the sine function?
This function will likely rebound by nature and have a diminishing damped oscillation on its own, IMHO, but I am just an engineer, not a finance person. Some things when looked at as functions transcend an art or technology and the fundamental laws of nature prevail, showing a commonality of action/reaction.
I am always in awe of Newton for deriving all of this with no calculating aids such as a computer, not even a calculator or slide rule.
He did this all in his head.
Bill