Seattle Pass On 2nd Down Dictated By NE Defense

[Larry Gude]

Actually, on 2nd down I thought a pass play was a good idea but IMO the Seahawks should have gone play action.
Lynch just had a great run on the left side, so a fake to Lynch going left and have Wilson roll to his right with a TE or WR slipping out to the corner. If open then throw it to the back pylon where only the receiver can get it, if not Wilson gets to decide to either throw it away or see if he can run to the front pylon. Higher % of success with a player like Wilson. He is the perfect QB to execute this - he's done it before. It would also give him time to decide what to do unlike the slant where he had to throw it immediately.

I would have been good, real good with that. Again, it all goes awry, Wilson can throw it away. Or take off with it. I think that plays makes FAR more sense.


Here's the thing. The Patriots don't just look at what YOU do. They look at what THEY do. "How would we score on us for goal line?" and someone says "Well, our tendency in a run formation is to be vulnerable to a hard slant...or a corner fade or a play action fake with the TE faking a block and then leaking to the back corner..."

When you get to practice against Tom Brady who can NAIL that hard slant with Edelman or fake you our of your shoes or Gronk, when it is NOT Tom Brady or Edelman or Gronk, your defense is already in better shape.

Of course, other teams think about that too but, they're not practicing against 3 or 4 all pros. At least not everyone is. By the same token, Seattle, Wilson, that play probably works against his corners because they're big and physical and maybe not quite THAT fast on a hard slant. In any event that kid should have been MVP. Brady played well but not great. THAT play, man, what a PERFECT play that kid made!!!!

 

[Larry Gude]

If the Patriots were gonna do that, they would have called a timeout after the first down run instead of watching 30 seconds (or something like that) run off the clock. I had the same thought at the time, that they might let him score. But by letting the clock run they would have left themselves with only about 20 seconds, best case. Coach Belichick made the decision that they were gonna make their stand on defense - that they'd win or lose based on whether they could keep Seattle out of the end zone. In real time, I didn't agree with that decision - but not calling a timeout there means that's the choice he made.

See, that's another thing the Pat's do; in that last minute, yeah, maybe MOST teams would have said "Man, we gotta call time out to preserve some clock and make sure we call what we want on D" but, the Pat's are just a LITTLE more aware, a LITTLE sharper, a LITTLE bit better here and there and there and, for Billickick, "why let Seattle get organized? They're under pressure, too. This is where players make plays. I like my guys. They want a time out, let them call it."

The NFL is about one thing; making just a few more plays, or even one more, than the other guys. EVERY one out there is elite. Yes, people screw up but, on MOST plays in the NFL everyone does their job correctly but, some do theirs maybe a hair better, a step quicker. That's the Pat's. They're not dominant and never have been. Even the 17-0 season, they were just sharper than everyone else. They didn't go out and run for 175 yards every game and beat you to death on defense. They just executed, got you down and didn't let up.

Great game but, the Pat's were there to be had and Carrol and his boys mucked up on the call and that kid made an incredible play.

 

[Larry Gude]

*warning* The following is nothing, but 100% pure, unadulterated (whatever that means) all American, 200 proof gloating;

Adam Kilgore of the Post reads SOMD forums. More to the point. he reads what I have to say:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ributed-to-fateful-play-call-by-pete-carroll/

Belichick’s choice to not use a timeout, though, made life more difficult for the Seahawks by complicating their play-calling options. It may have even convinced them to throw their ill-fated pass on second down.

I said that and I said it first, published right here in this tread.

Furthermore; Malcolm Butler;

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...riots-super-bowl-xlix-hero/?tid=pm_sports_pop

On second and goal from the 1, Butler set up on the right side of the Seahawks’ formation, the Patriots’ third cornerback. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia had told him to look for Ricardo Lockette, the outside receiver, to run a slant and try to run him into another crossing receiver.

“I knew they were going to throw it,” Butler said.

...and lastly, Sally Jenkins reads SOMD forums and reads me;

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...eec828-ab09-11e4-9c91-e9d2f9fde644_story.html

Wilson steps to the line, gives a telltale glance to his right at a little-used wide receiver named Ricardo Lockette. And that’s when Butler quits dying inside and starts thinking about redemption. He recognizes the play that’s about to happen. “I got beat on it in practice,” Butler said. Belichick had halted the workout and told him, “You’ve got to be on that.”

The ball snaps, and Lockette runs a slant route. Wilson reels a shoulder back and throws. And Butler is on it.

I said all of that. That Belichick is just that smart in terms of tactics, what is going on on-field, him and his coaches, that detail oriented, that Butler was ready for it, and Belichick is that smart in terms of strategy, of choosing to not use a time out to force Pete Carrols hand.

The NFL has parity, lots and lots of good players on every team. The difference is in the people teams pick, and why (read the Butler piece) and in the coaches, their ability on the practice field to get players to do what is being coached and their ability in the moment to think clearly.

 

[Grumpy]

I think Wilson's throw was perfect and the receivers route was perfect. What I saw was a DB he recognized it RIGHT AWAY and exploded, just like he'd been coached, to get to the spot first, and he did. Absolutely perfectly defensed. It was a HELL of a collision knocking them both for a loop. The WR was supposed to be RIGHT there and would have been but, the DB got there first.

That is what I find irritating about all the 'bad call' back-n-forth, the DB made an unbelievable read and reaction and all the hoopla is kinda overshadowing what was one of the best plays ever in a superbowl.

 

[Tilted]

See, that's another thing the Pat's do; in that last minute, yeah, maybe MOST teams would have said "Man, we gotta call time out to preserve some clock and make sure we call what we want on D" but, the Pat's are just a LITTLE more aware, a LITTLE sharper, a LITTLE bit better here and there and there and, for Billickick, "why let Seattle get organized? They're under pressure, too. This is where players make plays. I like my guys. They want a time out, let them call it."

The NFL is about one thing; making just a few more plays, or even one more, than the other guys. EVERY one out there is elite. Yes, people screw up but, on MOST plays in the NFL everyone does their job correctly but, some do theirs maybe a hair better, a step quicker. That's the Pat's. They're not dominant and never have been. Even the 17-0 season, they were just sharper than everyone else. They didn't go out and run for 175 yards every game and beat you to death on defense. They just executed, got you down and didn't let up.

Great game but, the Pat's were there to be had and Carrol and his boys mucked up on the call and that kid made an incredible play.

That's right, Mr. Butler made an incredible play as you describe it. That's what it took to make the decision to pass on 2nd down, in hindsight only, a bad call. It took not only an incredible play by the defender, but a not very good throw by Mr. Wilson - if he'd made a good throw, Mr. Butler still wouldn't have been able to pick the ball.

So in that situation you wouldn't have expected ahead of time that Russell Wilson would get intercepted, and that possibility (meaning, that there was a significant chance it might happen) is the only thing that would make throwing the pall in that situation a bad idea. Otherwise, as I've suggested, throwing it on either 2nd or 3rd down it's almost a no brainer - it gives you a bonus attempt to get in the end zone. You still get the two chances to run it in that you would have gotten otherwise.

You've made my case for me by acknowledging that something incredible happened on the last play.

incredible:

1. So implausible as to elicit disbelief; unbelievable
2. Astonishing, extraordinary, or extreme

Had not something incredible - something unbelievable, which surely couldn't have been expected beforehand - happened on that play, it wouldn't in hindsight seem so bad. Is it fair to judge a decision to go a particular direction as bad because, as it turned out after going that direction, something unbelievable ended up happening?

(In other words, be careful what words - e.g., incredible - you use. I'm mostly just funnin' of course. )

 

[Larry Gude]

That is what I find irritating about all the 'bad call' back-n-forth, the DB made an unbelievable read and reaction and all the hoopla is kinda overshadowing what was one of the best plays ever in a superbowl.

Yup. It wasn't a 'stupid' call. It was just something they, Seattle, really weren't prepared for; near goal line, time running low, 2nd or 3rd down, one time out left, what do we do?" Bill WANTED them to feel pressured.

I heard today that they've passed in that situation over 100 times this past season, red zone, with NO interceptions, which supports yet another contention; how would you defense yourself? What are your tendencies?

Clearly, Bill and his boys had a very strong idea of what they'd do in this VERY situation. Seattle, just enough less of an idea. I mean, think about that; kid got beat on that exact play in practice leading up to the game and coach STOPS everything and says to him, in front of the whole team "YOU gotta be THERE on this one..." He even picked up on Wilson's pre snap glance at the WR. EXCELLENT coaching, OUTSTANDING recognition. BRILLIANT execution.

One of the things I learned playing high school football was just listening to a couple of our stars one day between practices, dog days of two a days, and they were talking about how much everything on the field happens EXACTLY like our coaches told us it would and then it is simply a matter of us reading, reacting and winning the battle. Every single play. Of course, that's high school facing maybe 10-15 different plays each week in a long ago era but, still, for these teams, this is THE penultimate game with TWO weeks to get ready for everything the other guy has been doing. Same thing, though "Here is what's gonna happen and here is what you need to do..."

The thing there is no getting around is that it was a high risk/high reward call. It's not a fade to the corner where you just make it barely catch-able for your guy or no one. It's not a roll out where you can just throw it away if it isn't there. It is a 100% commit play where there is NO time to read anything. HARD slant, throw the ball. Even if it worked, it's still a HIGH risk/high reward play and that is not the call you want to make in that situation if you are Seattle and Marshawn is on the field and healthy AND you have Wilson and his legs as well.

Gutsy call, but not a good one. Gutsy call bi the Pats to let the clock run with two timeouts. I mean who DOESN'T call time??? Gutsy. Committed. Very sure what they wanted to do there.

Belichick said before the game it was now all about the players and he was, mostly, right. However, two coaches came down to it. One felt the pressure. One was ready.

 

[Larry Gude]

That's right, Mr. Butler made an incredible play as you describe it. That's what it took to make the decision to pass on 2nd down, in hindsight only, a bad call. It took not only an incredible play by the defender, but a not very good throw by Mr. Wilson - if he'd made a good throw, Mr. Butler still wouldn't have been able to pick the ball.

)

That throw was PERFECT. It was EXACTLY where it was supposed to be. The route was perfect. The receiver was gonna be there UNLESS the defender made a fantastic play...

...on a play he'd been specifically coached to handle.

Maybe you wouldn't have expected it but, the Pats did. They're usually the team that does something unexpected or figures out what you're gonna do. There's no getting around it; they knew what to expect Seattle to do and what to do about it if they did. High risk/high reward. I was stunned when Wilson stepped back. Stunned when he let it fly.

 

[Larry Gude]

You've made my case for me by acknowledging that something incredible happened on the last play.

incredible:

1. So implausible as to elicit disbelief; unbelievable
2. Astonishing, extraordinary, or extreme

Had not something incredible - something unbelievable, which surely couldn't have been expected beforehand - happened on that play, it wouldn't in hindsight seem so bad. Is it fair to judge a decision to go a particular direction as bad because, as it turned out after going that direction, something unbelievable ended up happening?

(In other words, be careful what words - e.g., incredible - you use. I'm mostly just funnin' of course. )

Ha. This is the Pat's. They expected it. They were ready for it. Bill laid a trap and Carrol's boys stepped right into it.

 

[Larry Gude]

1. So implausible as to elicit disbelief; unbelievable
2. Astonishing, extraordinary, or extreme[/I] )

Q: What do you call it when the Seattle Seahawks throw a hard slant on 2nd down at the one with Lynch in the game and healthy and Wilson in the game and healthy and 30 seconds left and one time out and the game, the season, history, on the line?

A: 1. So implausible as to elicit disbelief; unbelievable
2. Astonishing, extraordinary, or extreme



Ha.

 

[Tilted]

Yup. It wasn't a 'stupid' call. It was just something they, Seattle, really weren't prepared for; near goal line, time running low, 2nd or 3rd down, one time out left, what do we do?" Bill WANTED them to feel pressured.

I heard today that they've passed in that situation over 100 times this past season, red zone, with NO interceptions, which supports yet another contention; how would you defense yourself? What are your tendencies?

...

Woah, woah, woah...

You can't have it both ways.

They should have stuck to what's in their wheel house. But they shouldn't have down what might have been expected.

They did what they often do in this situation. They must have overthought it to do what they've done so many times before.

They've done this before with a lot of success in terms of no picks. They should have realized that play might get picked (or at least had a reasonable chance of getting picked).


Is it a bad idea to play to your strengths and the opponent's weaknesses (or relative weaknesses)? How many rushing TDs did NE allow this year? Not many.

The call was completely reasonably unless you thought there was a decent chance you would get picked - and I don't think they should have thought that before hand. What you're saying now reinforces that notion.

 

[Tilted]

That throw was PERFECT. It was EXACTLY where it was supposed to be. The route was perfect. The receiver was gonna be there UNLESS the defender made a fantastic play...

...on a play he'd been specifically coached to handle.

Maybe you wouldn't have expected it but, the Pats did. They're usually the team that does something unexpected or figures out what you're gonna do. There's no getting around it; they knew what to expect Seattle to do and what to do about it if they did. High risk/high reward. I was stunned when Wilson stepped back. Stunned when he let it fly.

No, the throw needs to be in the receivers gut. (And I'm not the only one that noticed it wasn't in the right spot, I think it was Trent Dilfer that noted the same thing - maybe it was someone else, I mix up the talking heads sometimes). If you put it a little high and a little in front of the receiver, you create the possibility that the defender can come from behind them and basically go through them to get to the ball. Or, a defender in the middle of the field has a better chance to get to the spot before the receiver and take it away from them.

If the ball is in the receiver's gut, no one is getting to it. The defender behind him can't even get to it if they completely run the receiver over. And in that situation you aren't worried about the receiver being able to get a lot of yards after catching the ball - they don't need to catch it in stride. They just need to catch it and maybe get another yard. So you put it in the gut and it either gets caught or it's incomplete.

 

[Tilted]

Sonny says every pass has three possible outcomes; a completion, a pick, an incomplete. 2 out of 3 are bad. In that spot, with Wilson as QB, against that team, I'd call it a fairly good chance of not being completed. Again, it works, gutsy call. I was just in shock when Wilson stepped back and, again, I though they were lucky to only have it batted down...until it struck me it was picked.

When you get in a car there are two possible outcomes, you die or you don't die. One out of two is bad, doesn't seem like very appealing odds.

There are also two possibilities for today - the sun will blow up or it won't blow up. One out of two is really bad, that's quite different than there being a 50% chance the sun will blow up today.

And President Obama is either the greatest President in the history of the United States or he is not - 50% shot, place your bet.

 

[Tilted]

Q: What do you call it when the Seattle Seahawks throw a hard slant on 2nd down at the one with Lynch in the game and healthy and Wilson in the game and healthy and 30 seconds left and one time out and the game, the season, history, on the line?

A: 1. So implausible as to elicit disbelief; unbelievable
2. Astonishing, extraordinary, or extreme



Ha.

I wouldn't call it incredible because I'd think it was one of a number of fairly likely play calls. It isn't more likely than not because there were several possibilities there - each had a fair shot of being called, but none of them were certain to be called. So, if we're looking at them not just as pass or run - if we're getting more detailed about the play call, e.g. a slant pattern or an off-tackle run as opposed to straight up the middle - then none of them is above 50% likelihood to be the choice. But if we look at just throw or run, I'd have made throwing slightly more likely there than running for reasons I've already gone into. At the time my mind was considering the time left on the clock and that they had one timeout and thinking, fairly intuitively, thinking - they could throw it or run it, even from the formation they came out in. So, no, a pass there didn't surprise me at all. That kind of call gets made in similar situations a lot. And why not give Russell Wilson a chance to win it for you? As I've said, you aren't really costing yourself anything because you still get the same two opportunities to run the ball in - unless, of course, he throws a pick. Which happened because... the defender made an unbelievable play.

 

[Tilted]

Ha. This is the Pat's. They expected it. They were ready for it. Bill laid a trap and Carrol's boys stepped right into it.

So... Coach Belichick out-coached Coach Carroll on that last play? Okay, I'll buy that. That doesn't mean Coach Carroll made a bad call, certainly not a call that's unbelievably terribly bad as some have suggested it was. A lot of coaches have been out-coached by Mr. Bill Belichick over the years, not because they made bad decisions but because he made better ones.

That does leave a question though: If Bill laid such a great trap, then why did his trap still need an INCREDIBLE play to make it work. That is to say, it couldn't have been all that great a call if it took something UNBELIEVABLE for it to end up paying off. Was his strategy really to hope that something that couldn't be anticipated would happen? HA!

Anyway, I'm pretty deep in silliness at this point and ready to call it quits. Just admit you agree with me so we can both get back to being productive.

 

[b23hqb]

The Patriots won. That is good, very good.

Seattle lost. Who cares outside the northwest, and all the "we hate NE just because we're tired of them being so good for so long with the same coach and QB" crowd. Seattle did not lose on a bad call by the officials. They did not lose because of some incredible bad luck due to a freak play - they had the incredible good luck to have the freak play go their way to put them where they were. They lost on a debatable call by Carroll, who played the NFL %'s based on the NE defense he and his saw, and was beat by the other coach that had the player in the right spot to make the play.

That is all.

 

[Larry Gude]

So... Coach Belichick out-coached Coach Carroll on that last play? Okay, I'll buy that. That doesn't mean Coach Carroll made a bad call, certainly not a call that's unbelievably terribly bad as some have suggested it was. A lot of coaches have been out-coached by Mr. Bill Belichick over the years, not because they made bad decisions but because he made better ones.

That does leave a question though: If Bill laid such a great trap, then why did his trap still need an INCREDIBLE play to make it work. That is to say, it couldn't have been all that great a call if it took something UNBELIEVABLE for it to end up paying off. Was his strategy really to hope that something that couldn't be anticipated would happen? HA!

Anyway, I'm pretty deep in silliness at this point and ready to call it quits. Just admit you agree with me so we can both get back to being productive.

As I say, parity in the NFL means the little things are what matters. In that, the Pats are usually better than everyone else even if only a play or two a game. Pete is a fantastic coach and Bill needed to play an incredible card from up his sleeve. But, that's what they do; just one play better than you.

Now, I always start at the newest and work back so, I gotta go read the rest of your attempts to mitigate my gloating.

 

[Larry Gude]

I wouldn't call it incredible because I'd think it was one of a number of fairly likely play calls. It isn't more likely than not because there were several possibilities there - each had a fair shot of being called, but none of them were certain to be called. So, if we're looking at them not just as pass or run - if we're getting more detailed about the play call, e.g. a slant pattern or an off-tackle run as opposed to straight up the middle - then none of them is above 50% likelihood to be the choice. But if we look at just throw or run, I'd have made throwing slightly more likely there than running for reasons I've already gone into. At the time my mind was considering the time left on the clock and that they had one timeout and thinking, fairly intuitively, thinking - they could throw it or run it, even from the formation they came out in. So, no, a pass there didn't surprise me at all. That kind of call gets made in similar situations a lot. And why not give Russell Wilson a chance to win it for you? As I've said, you aren't really costing yourself anything because you still get the same two opportunities to run the ball in - unless, of course, he throws a pick. Which happened because... the defender made an unbelievable play.

I have no problem with throwing, none. I just think that hard slant is a LOT riskier than you do. Again, I had no dog in this fight but, I felt awful for Seattle after that big catch and I was in shock when Wilson went back to pass....and...threw....tight...right into traffic. Again, I felt relief FOR them as I thought, at first, it had simply hit the ground.

Seattle certainly practiced this and are with you that this isn't some mind bending, way out there call. To them and you.

 

[Larry Gude]

Which happened because... the defender made an unbelievable play.

Actually, as I predicted, we'd be reading that the Pats had practiced this EXACT play and were ready for it.
So, unbelievable that Seattle had the nerve to try the high risk maneuver at the wrong time. Which the Pats were ready for. In the article, it even mentions that one of Butler's strengths is how good he is at breaking HARD when he recognizes a play.

 

[Larry Gude]

When you get in a car there are two possible outcomes, you die or you don't die. .

You are not allowing for many worlds theory. In one of those worlds, Russel Wilson goes play action fake to Beast, rolls LEFT, totally against everything the Pats were thinking, and walks in, arms raised, or tosses over a defender to a wide open tight end to win the Superbowl.

 

[cricketmd]

With the amount of time left on the clock, I wonder if the Pats were gonna let Lynch walk into the endzone so they could, at least, get an opportunity to possibly tie the score with a field goal. But, the Seahawks got cute, and paid for it. I fully expected Lynch to get the ball and walk into the endzone.

Exactly!