mitzi
Well-Known Member
Anthony S. Fauci, M.D.
Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., Director of NIAID, oversees research to prevent, diagnose, and treat infectious diseases, immune-related illnesses, and allergies.
Smooth move, Exlax
- Thread starter vraiblonde
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Yooper
Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
Speaking of Fauci, I think there's more than a bit of group-think/echo-chambering going on with these infectious disease (ID) folks. Also, that they seem to be putting too much trust in the models. I'm sure not everyone in the field is playing, but social media censoring makes finding those "voices in the wilderness" difficult to find.*
This is yet another reason why I think Trump is doing what he's doing. If the ID experts are correct he "looks good"/has "clean hands." If the ID folks are wrong, then Trump can use this "failure" to also push back on other fronts; specifically, climate change.* But also, against the over-regulated State.
Again, not trying to minimize the medical or economic aspects of COVID-19 (for many the former hits home, for almost all of us the latter does). Instead, what I'm trying to see is how Trump might be playing his hand in what is rapidly becoming more a political fight than a medical/economic one.
Trump continues to have to fight a myriad of tactical battles on a number of campaign fronts. If he is to be "successful" (defined as gaining the trust and confidence of the American people in order to be a) successful in November and b) regain economic prosperity for The People and The Nation), then he has to have a strategic intent/plan. My comments are guesses as to what that strategic intent/plan is. I could be absolutely wrong in my musings, but everything I'm seeing during Trump's pressers seem to further validate what I think I'm seeing.**
There are eerie similarities between what Trump is doing now and what, for example, FDR did in the lead-up to WWII (wrt how both have to/had to maneuver on numerous fronts in the face of numerous hostile forces).
* It's interesting seeing how COVID-19 and climate change are similarly presented (or, allowed to be presented) on social media.
** I can't help but laugh when Trump says, "It's a tough enemy we're up against." It's clear he means COVID-19, but I can't help but wonder if this is a double entendre where "enemy" also means his political adversaries (i.e., the press, the Dems/Left, the #NeverTrumper crowd, etc.). EDIT: There's a bearded douche making stupid comments about letting scientists do the science.... Clearly, not a question. Exactly the opposite of what a journalist should be doing. Ugh.
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This is yet another reason why I think Trump is doing what he's doing. If the ID experts are correct he "looks good"/has "clean hands." If the ID folks are wrong, then Trump can use this "failure" to also push back on other fronts; specifically, climate change.* But also, against the over-regulated State.
Again, not trying to minimize the medical or economic aspects of COVID-19 (for many the former hits home, for almost all of us the latter does). Instead, what I'm trying to see is how Trump might be playing his hand in what is rapidly becoming more a political fight than a medical/economic one.
Trump continues to have to fight a myriad of tactical battles on a number of campaign fronts. If he is to be "successful" (defined as gaining the trust and confidence of the American people in order to be a) successful in November and b) regain economic prosperity for The People and The Nation), then he has to have a strategic intent/plan. My comments are guesses as to what that strategic intent/plan is. I could be absolutely wrong in my musings, but everything I'm seeing during Trump's pressers seem to further validate what I think I'm seeing.**
There are eerie similarities between what Trump is doing now and what, for example, FDR did in the lead-up to WWII (wrt how both have to/had to maneuver on numerous fronts in the face of numerous hostile forces).
* It's interesting seeing how COVID-19 and climate change are similarly presented (or, allowed to be presented) on social media.
** I can't help but laugh when Trump says, "It's a tough enemy we're up against." It's clear he means COVID-19, but I can't help but wonder if this is a double entendre where "enemy" also means his political adversaries (i.e., the press, the Dems/Left, the #NeverTrumper crowd, etc.). EDIT: There's a bearded douche making stupid comments about letting scientists do the science.... Clearly, not a question. Exactly the opposite of what a journalist should be doing. Ugh.
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So now I'm reading & hearing that deaths from this are being under counted. That deaths should be much higher. Are these the we want more misery people.
Your other point is correct. People dying of terminal cancer die after testing for this are listed as dying from it.
itsbob
I bowl overhand
Well, I have a few issues with what's been presented... surprised I know.
The models weren't bad.. or over dramatic. I think the models were correct for the data they had. As we made changes to our lives, the modes weren't "corrected" they were updated. Every change we made, stopping flights, closing stores, stay at home, each individual change was an update to the model.
We started at the worst case, we do nothing and let COVID ravage our population we could expect 2 million American deaths.. I think that is still a true statement, but with everything we've implemented across the country, and in individual states, we've driven that number down to 200k.. nothing short of miraculous.. as was stated, the model may need further updating, we find Malaria Drugs effective or example, that will drive the 200k down even further. ALSO, if people start believing the models were wrong, and COVID was overhyped they might start ignoring (moreso) current stay at home orders, and social distancing. If they start acting out on what they are being told and try to return to normal too soon, the models may have to be updated going the wrong way.
Medical ships and mobile hospitals not being used: We didn't get them into place for today or tomorrow, we put them in place for what's coming. HOPEFULLY they remain unused, that would be a good thing, and a good waste of taxpayer money.. I'd hate to have the opposite news, of them being overused, and not being able to provide the level of support needed. BUT they were put in place for what's on the horizon in the coming 2 - 3 weeks. Current model shows we peak (death rate) around mid April. We didn't want them showing up during those weeks, but want them in place well ahead of the peak.
Even if we went back to normal in the next few weeks, it's going to be a long time before everything gets back to normal.. we have many future shortages to look forward to.
One thing this has pointed out, is we have a critical shortage of truck drivers, and if you don't have one, having a technical skill is a huge plus.
Not really a skill set but was thinking last night if there was a way I could put my truck to work on the weekends, even volunteer to take loads to and from where needed.. I'm not a commercially licensed driver, but I wouldn't think that would matter at this point. Critical shortage of willing drivers, and trucks.
The models weren't bad.. or over dramatic. I think the models were correct for the data they had. As we made changes to our lives, the modes weren't "corrected" they were updated. Every change we made, stopping flights, closing stores, stay at home, each individual change was an update to the model.
We started at the worst case, we do nothing and let COVID ravage our population we could expect 2 million American deaths.. I think that is still a true statement, but with everything we've implemented across the country, and in individual states, we've driven that number down to 200k.. nothing short of miraculous.. as was stated, the model may need further updating, we find Malaria Drugs effective or example, that will drive the 200k down even further. ALSO, if people start believing the models were wrong, and COVID was overhyped they might start ignoring (moreso) current stay at home orders, and social distancing. If they start acting out on what they are being told and try to return to normal too soon, the models may have to be updated going the wrong way.
Medical ships and mobile hospitals not being used: We didn't get them into place for today or tomorrow, we put them in place for what's coming. HOPEFULLY they remain unused, that would be a good thing, and a good waste of taxpayer money.. I'd hate to have the opposite news, of them being overused, and not being able to provide the level of support needed. BUT they were put in place for what's on the horizon in the coming 2 - 3 weeks. Current model shows we peak (death rate) around mid April. We didn't want them showing up during those weeks, but want them in place well ahead of the peak.
Even if we went back to normal in the next few weeks, it's going to be a long time before everything gets back to normal.. we have many future shortages to look forward to.
One thing this has pointed out, is we have a critical shortage of truck drivers, and if you don't have one, having a technical skill is a huge plus.
Not really a skill set but was thinking last night if there was a way I could put my truck to work on the weekends, even volunteer to take loads to and from where needed.. I'm not a commercially licensed driver, but I wouldn't think that would matter at this point. Critical shortage of willing drivers, and trucks.
Yooper
Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
Wrt the models, I agree as far as initial data goes. However, the IMHE model that is being touted in the WH pressers is getting worse as new data comes in. Meaning, it is vastly overstating the numbers to make the pandemic worse than it is. AT THIS POINT. So perhaps mitigating measures have helped/are helping, but to use these numbers as gospel seems wrong to me if the criticisms of the model are correct. Go here (tweet thread and this guy in general):
I also agree with you wrt the (potential) severity of COVID-19; why I think it's wrong to downplay what we're doing to mitigate the virus (and why it's wrong to say it's no worse than seasonal influenza). Go here for a nice thread:
Using Kolchinsky, here's a link to an article he has in the thread about a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. It speaks to why we'll get a good vaccine (as opposed to the "hit and miss" of the seasonal influenza vaccine):
Ending Covid
The biopharmaceutical industry will be able to make a Covid-19 vaccine—probably a few of them—using various existing vaccine technologies. But many people worry that Covid-19 will mutate and evade our vaccines, as the flu virus does each season. Covid-19 is fundamentally different from flu...
www.city-journal.org
I have no expertise to say whether Kolchinsky gets it right, but what he writes seems "legit."
Finally, I think Kurt Schlichter makes excellent points as to the balancing act:
Beware The Creeps Who Enjoy Their New Pandemic Power
You are starting to see more of that as this drags out.
Here's a way-too-long snip (please do Kurt and Townhall a solid and click-over):
I agree with Kurt. The virus is a danger. But so are the increasing signs where civil liberty is concerned.
Both sides of the coin are threats; the "art of the deal" is successfully addressing both without sacrificing either. My "reassess date" remains next Sunday.
EDIT: Listening to Kennedy on "Outnumbered." She is my "canary" in that she is in (at least) one of the vulnerable categories and she's a strong libertarian. In many (most?) things her views more or less align with mine. She's not raising alarm bells yet and counseling to stay the course.
P.S. Apologies if any of these links are posted elsewhere. Beyond this thread, I haven't been through the SoMD forum queue yet.
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As time goes on, I'm definitely looking at these pressers with a different eye after reading some of yours (and also others here) musings. Please continue!
**It's not to say I don't have some very huge concerns on the medical and financial front, because I do. My son is a first responder and my BFF's 82 year old mother was exposed recently, which exposes all of the people she was in contact with, some of whom have been in contact/interacted with me. (is that 3 or 4 times removed?!)
I will be eagerly awaiting to see how the Dem run states keep restrictions in place. They want more control, this could become their new model of Marshall Law for their taxation and control of the population.
Yooper
Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
In support of your comments here and in other threads, re: growing doubt, let's add this thread:
Here's my take. Tweet threads like this one from Levine are totally anecdotal and, thus, not helpful. We need data, not campfire stories. Otherwise, this is political posturing and actually works against the case he's trying to make if what he's saying is true. Makes me less trusting (re: what I'm being told by political leaders), not more.
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kwillia
n/a
Finished work and now watching The Five for today's highlights... MSNBC Morning Joe suspects Trump had financial ties to the drug company for the meds he is praising, Bernie popped up in an interview and said Trump is only giving help to battleground states, Boris Johnson now in ICU. I think I'm caught up.