Tesla

glhs837

Power with Control
So, here we are.

  1. Never had battery and powertrain day. Thats going to happen in September, I think.
  2. Q2 deliveries were above even the most optimistic analysts at over 90K vehicles.
  3. Word of a million mile battery announcement and beginning Semi production this year.
  4. $3,000 price drop on the Model Y Long Range AWD version, with word that the 35K Standard Range will not be produced as it's range would be around 250 miles and therefore not up to Teslas standards. Price drop, IMO, is also due to production cost decreases allowing them to still make a profit on them after the price drop.
  5. Since they posted a profit on selling fewer cars in Q1, expected to be a profitable Q2 which could trigger placement in the S&P 500, which would trigger a wave of institutional buying.
Todays price is over $1,500 a share. Crazy. I'm not sure we'll ever see the downside of $1200 a share again.
 

TPD

the poor dad
Tesla - 5 for 1 split yesterday. I now have 15 shares! :bann:
My $2000 has turned into $7500 in less than 6 months. Sell now or longterm holding? I'm hoping Tesla is the next Apple or Amazon...
 

PeoplesElbow

Well-Known Member
Tesla - 5 for 1 split yesterday. I now have 15 shares! :bann:
My $2000 has turned into $7500 in less than 6 months. Sell now or longterm holding? I'm hoping Tesla is the next Apple or Amazon...
Teslas valuation is 10x that of GM, GM has over 10x the free cash flow of Tesla.

Apple actually has a pretty low valuation to free cash flow ratio. TSLA will come down in valuation to cash flow ratio eventually.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
Tesla - 5 for 1 split yesterday. I now have 15 shares! :bann:
My $2000 has turned into $7500 in less than 6 months. Sell now or longterm holding? I'm hoping Tesla is the next Apple or Amazon...

Hold, if you have a couple - three years. I now have 50 shares. My $3,000 is now over $20,000 in a little over 3 years. I'm at least five years long, maybe more.

  1. Giga Shanghai just now getting ready to produce the Model Y, which should sell even better than the Model 3 did there. Production costs not much more than Model 3, higher price and margins. Model 3 going to be cheaper to produce thanks to giga casting and heat pump commonality with Model Y
  2. Giga Berlin expected to come online before next summer, allowing more competitive pricing across Europe due to lack of import taxes. And increases in production efficiency as seen above.
  3. Tera Austin expected to come online producing Cybertrucks before the end of calendar 2021, and Semis not long after that.
  4. Grid/residential storage products will increase as a shares of business.
  5. Competitors are generally acknowledged to be years behind is most important aspects of EVs, and are introducing products aimed at where TEsla was, not where they will be.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
Giga Berlin, April 20th - Last tree cleared, empty level dirt field


Giga Berlin - August 29th buildings going up far faster than anyone expected. The Germans have evidently watched the ShangHai plant go from dirt field to producing cars in 10 months as a challenge and are saying "Hold my stein"

 

glhs837

Power with Control
Ah, they aren't necessarily looking for a better alloy, they are looking for a better alloy to cast (a relatively cheap process), that makes more sense.

My guess is for main electrical lines, something like a bus bar.

I am not a fan of aluminum as a conductor, it is very good but has problems due to high thermal expansion and fatigue issues unless it's copper clad. Many trailer fires were caused due to this in the 70s.

The other possibility is a cast motor case that doesnt have to be wound, reducing its weight and cost.

Just thought I would revisit this since we now know what they were after. The rear subframe of the Model Y was introduced as a 2 piece casting, using one of the largest aluminum pressure casting machines. Those two pieces replaced what in the Model 3 was 70 individual pieces of stamped metal. As soon as that worked, Telsa ordered another machine from Idra for the largest and most powerful high pressure direct casting machine they have ever made. This new machine makes that entire rear subframe including rear crumple rails in one casting. With I think a 90 second cycle time. The savings in time, machinery cost, manpower, and materials is pretty huge. This technique looks to port directly over to the Model 3 using eh exact same part.

Thats what this alloy was for, to be better suited to the demands of this ridiculously fast and high pressure casting with integrated cooling.


"Shots of molten aluminium weighing 80 kilograms (180 lb) are injected into the cold-chamber casting mold with a velocity of 10 metres per second (22 mph; 36 km/h). "

The first and second of these are already working in Fremont, two others are setting up in ShangHai, and Berlin is planning to install eight of them.
 

PeoplesElbow

Well-Known Member
Not a fan of cast parts, repair could be difficult. Being in aviation I like formed sheet metal and machined parts.

But very cool and innovative.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
Not a fan of cast parts, repair could be difficult. Being in aviation I like formed sheet metal and machined parts.

But very cool and innovative.

Usually, if a uni-body cars structure that deep is compromised, nobody is repairing it anyway. Not outside of a salvage title anyway. Because unlike a 90 million dollar airframe, a 30-40K car isnt worth removing and replacing all that complex structure.

151648


151649
 

TPD

the poor dad
Wow - Tesla closed at $705 yesterday. Adjusting for the split, when this thread was started, Tesla was trading at $180, dipped below $100, and now at $705 - all in 10 months. Pigs get fatter, hogs get slaughtered - at the moment I like being a pig...
 

glhs837

Power with Control
Wow - Tesla closed at $705 yesterday. Adjusting for the split, when this thread was started, Tesla was trading at $180, dipped below $100, and now at $705 - all in 10 months. Pigs get fatter, hogs get slaughtered - at the moment I like being a pig...
Back in mid-september, I rolled over an old 401k. Kept most of it in the new companies 401k, took about 30% into my "billionaires fund" Tesla, Alphabet so I can have some SpaceX, Amazon, and Google. A good majority of that went right into Tesla, it was about 380 a share post split. So I'm feeling good. I also feel good long term. More analysts are seeing the larger picture. Shanghai has dropped the price of the Model Y and 3 10k and they are still making money on them. Berlin should be cranking out cars by fall, which will drop the price by 10k or so since they won't have import taxes. Austin shloud be in preproduction or early production by November/December, Semi program ramping up. New style cell production should be gone. Lots going on as always.
 
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TPD

the poor dad
Back in mid-september, I rolled over an old 401k. Kept most of it in the new companies 401k, took about 30% into my "billionaires fund" Tesla, Alphabet so I can have some SpaceX, Amazon, and Google. A good majority of that went right into Tesla, it was about 380 a share post split. So I'm feeling good. I also feel good long term. More analysts are seeing the larger picture. Shanghai has dropped the price of the Model Y and 3 10k and they are still making money on them. Berlin should be cranking out cars by fall, which will drop the price by 10k or so since they won't have import taxes. Austin shloud be in preproduction or early production by November/December, Semi program ramping up. New style cell production should be gone. Lots going on as always.
Sounds like you made some great financial moves! I've got $100 per month coming out of my checking acct automatically buying more Tesla stock - baby steps for me. Thanks for the Tesla operations update.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
Interesting bit of news here. One item that allows for the price drop is the fact that they are using cast front and rear subframes. The cost savings in not having to stamp, finish, weld, screw, bolt and braze and paint 70 individual pieces of metal to make each one of these subframes is a huge cost savings in labor and tooling since you dont need all those stamping presses to turn out the 70 pieces.

 

glhs837

Power with Control
So Tesla.....$705 to $880 in 8 days

I dont even know. Even if it drops by half, I'm still up. Well, there were two pieces of good news.

  1. Solid hints that the 25K car for China is well under development and could be ready for sale in 2022. That would print money in a huge way.
  2. NHTSA released its findings on its unintended acceleration investigation which basically said "Nothingburger, idiots hit the wrong freaking pedal"
 
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PeoplesElbow

Well-Known Member
I been closely watching opinions of people that own Teslas and people that own PHEVs because I am a bigger believer in PHEVs than BEVs. I am finding a lot of stories like this, people replacing their BEV with PHEVs.

 

PeoplesElbow

Well-Known Member
If I had owned Tesla I would have gotten out on the way down by $600.


Competition is coming. Check out Fisker if wanting to get in early on an EV stock.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
I keep waiting for that competition. So far not a lot to look at. Fisker might make it, might not. They hired Magna to make the one, now Foxconn, who have never built cars, is going to jump in. A bit early to decide if thats going to work out, IMO.

I do own, and I'm holding for quite a while. 10,000 cars might seem like a lot, but in the larger scheme..... not so much, I think. Two factories coming online this year, new casting mthods to drop the cost to make them, battery factories co-located with those factories reducing cost even further. Will still be a good year, with 22 looking to be even better as four factories ramp to full production with lower cost vehicles.

 
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