Kerad said:
An air force is only as good as it's pilots. He was smart enough to realize his pilots didn't stand a chance up there, so instead of sacrificing all those planes (and pilots)...
But you have dodged the issue - if Iran was their MORTAL enemy - why on earth would he hide half his Air Force there? If you were North Korea, would you "hide" your planes in South Korea? If you were the United States, would you stash your advanced weaponry in the Soviet Union? You would NOT - IF Iran was your *mortal* enemy. I think this was a case of the enemy of my enemy is my friend. They were closer to Iran than to the U.S.
Kerad said:
he'd stash them somewhere safe. He also knew we would not march into Baghdad (in Desert Storm) and topple his government. He would maintain his power without his air force being destroyed...then (in theory) he'd get his planes back afterwards.
You're making his point. If he did it once, he'd do it again. Good reason to stash easily transported chemical and biological weapons - use them later. Saddam's threats were that he would make the guerilla campaign a fight we would never win.
Kerad said:
Also, this time he knew we were coming all the way to Baghdad specifically to get him.
I still think he again thought we wouldn't go in - not with the bulk of the world against us on the matter. He'd bribed everyone in the UN. He had their vote. It wasn't going to happen, in his mind. And I think he thought a real face to face combat would be fought to a standstill - and Somalia taught him Americans won't stand for a long fight. Send a few body bags, and they will leave. I mean, as far as the Baathists and Iraqis who supported him - he WON the first war. Why wouldn't he win again?
Kerad said:
It's not as if we'd let him go if we didn't find anything.
"Sorry, Mr. Hussein. There seems to have been a mixup somewhere....sorry for the inconvenience. Please accept our apologies, and you and the Mrs. have a good night."
And this is where the Bush Lied People Died thing gets me - if there wasn't any - and we knew this going in - how hard would it have been to frame him over it? I mean, you're a cop and you KNOW that Mr. Big doesn't have any drugs in his mansion - and you say he does. Isn't it a foregone conclusion you HAVE to fake it, to justify your actions? Cops have been known to do that NOW - if we had lied going in, why would we have suddenly gotten honest about it?
I think -
1. Intel was bad
2. Saddam lied, people died - Saddam boasted of weapons he didn't have, to keep power.
3. Saddam DID have programs in place - but they weren't advanced. Possibly he was waiting until an effective delivery system was available.
4. He WAS pursuing nuclear weapons - but like Iran, he was more than five years away.
5. People under Saddam lied to protect their skins - falsely reporting on more progress than existed - and destroyed this evidence to save their hides.
6. I think he DID take some WMD's to Syria - but after losing Iraq and being captured he was unable to regain them. If this is true, this could be worse than ever. Worse than Saddam having WMD's is Hezbollah having WMD's.