Today is a political thriller. It is President Trump’s deadline to satisfy Judge Engoran’s stratospheric, unprecedented, probably unconstitutional $454 million dollar bond requirement. And nobody knows what he has planned. The Guardian UK ran a helpful, related story yesterday — a story that in their glee, U.S. corporate media outlets have studiously avoided — headlined “
Seizing Trump’s New York properties will not be easy for Letitia James.” As I have said.
Now that James has her judgment, she is allowed to start collecting the money by garnishing and foreclosing on Trump’s properties. You might think that just filing the appeal should stop (‘stay’) the collections process; after all, the appellate court might reverse everything.
But way back in the very old days, some defendants used the appeal process to buy time for moving their assets out of the judgment’s reach. Obviously, Trump can’t move Trump Tower anywhere. But he could transfer the deed to a Cayman Island cutout or something. He should ask Biden how it’s done.
The law fixed that problem, by requiring defendants to “bond” the full amount of the judgment, if they to put collections on hold during the appeal. A “bond” is a third-party guarantee of payment, like insurance, or a bail bond, where a well-funded professional bonding company agrees to pay the judgment if the appeal loses — even if the defendant disappears.
Obviously, the bonding company itself must have the money to pay, which cuts down the list of possible providers in Trump’s mega bond case. And bond companies don’t take risks.They absolutely will not undertake a bond obligation without first getting collateral.
For example, to provide a $1 million dollar bond, a bonding company might first want a mortgage on the defendant’s house, and some liens on his cars. They won’t take just anything as collateral, like your collection of celebrity Pez dispensers. Trump Tower might be worth a few hundred million, but if it also has big bank loans, the bond company will probably pass.
Next, the more risk there is, the more the bond costs. Even though bonds are secured with collateral, customers “buy” the bonds. That’s how the bond seller makes money. In my experience, the average price of an appeal bond is ten percent (10%) of face value. In terms of this, this bond would be a unicorn. Nobody’s ever seen anything as big or like it. Plus it’s
politics.
How could you possibly calculate the risk? What about the risk the democrats and the feds might try to cancel the bond company for helping Trump?
In other words, to buy an appeal bond — to
stay collections during the appeal — Trump first must give the bonding company mortgages on collateral valued over $454 million (or even up to $600 million, with interest), and pay cash, at least $60 million, maybe more, as the bond
price — money he’d never ever get back, regardless if he ultimately wins or loses.
There might not even be a bonding company big enough and crazy enough to get involved.
In hindsight, Judge Engoran’s “fine” looks calculated to drain Trump’s campaign account by effectively making it impossible to buy a bond. Trump could just put up the whole $500 million or so, depositing it in the court’s registry, and then he won’t need a bond.
Not coincidentally, $500 million is around the same amount Trump has in his presidential campaign account, as Judge Engoran (or anybody) could easily determine from Trump’s mandatory FEC filings.
If Trump can’t (or won’t) buy a bond or put up the money, he may still pursue the appeal. But in that case, Soros-backed District Attorney Letitia James can also start collecting, which is exactly what the TDS-infected corporate media can’t wait to see. The memes are already drowning the Internet.
But, as I’ve explained before, and as the Guardian article explained, it will be painfully difficult and tooth-gnashingly slow for James to collect Trump’s assets (though she’d get there eventually).
If Trump had any other way to come up with the money, he should do that, and not take a chance that some rogue judge will help James collect on an important asset.
Corporate media’s “Get Trump” hopes were dashed again when on Friday, the New York Times ran a (non-paywalled) story headlined, “
Trump Media Merger Provides Trump a Potential Cash Lifeline.” With a quick bit of impressive financial wizardry and fast work, Trump’s Truth Social announced on Friday it had shareholder approval to merge with already-publicly-traded media company Digital World Acquisition Corporation, which trades as DWAC.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Truth Social could start trading on the stock market as soon as this week, when the paperwork is complete. It was great news, but it’s still not the whole answer. CBS News ran an article Friday headlined, “
Trump could score $3.5 billion from Truth Social going public. But tapping the money may be tricky.” The ‘tricky’ part is that owners, like Trump, are normally barred from selling any shares for at least six months after a company goes public. Sellers can sometimes get that restriction waived, but that takes time, too.
For several intractable reasons, there is
no feasible way Trump could access the Truth Social money today, in time to put up the money to stay collections. But, if Trump could borrow what he needed from a coalition of billionaires, he could pay them back pretty fast
with interest after he gets his Truth Social money. How likely is that? Remember the name of Trump’s bestselling 2009 book:
Let’s make a deal.
Finally, the court of appeals yet to rule on Trump’s massive motion filed last week to reduce or eliminate the bond requirement. That ruling will come today, and we will learn whether New York’s appellate court will uphold Engoran’s ridiculous judgment and prove it has also lost its damned mind. Or, if it does the
right thing, and starts pumping water out of New York’s sinking ship of business, the bond requirement could be waived or greatly reduced.
I wouldn’t dare to predict what will happen today in this insane case. If Trump can pull the cash together without bankrupting his campaign, it would be better to just deposit the whole amount with the court than buy an unimaginably-expensive appeal bond for $50 million, which would also tie up all his collateral.
Stay tuned.
Deadline looms for Trump appeal bond and options appear; RFK panicking poll-watching dems; judge allows illegals to vote and hold office in DC; Ukrainians whine about high-tech NATO tanks; and more.
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