Yesterday, Reuters ran a story headlined, “
Putin says Russia advancing fast in eastern Ukraine.” Although Reuters included the sneering phrase “Putin says” in its headline, the story confirmed that, for the first time since the beginning of Russia’s war of attrition, Russian forces are in fact advancing fast over the battlefield.
Following the Ukraine war is often a meaningless memory exercise of trying to keep track of the long, convoluted, consonant-dense names of various Ukrainian towns and villages. I don’t report the daily play-by-play here at C&C, since other sources cover the war more thoroughly and much better than I can.
It is worth a short aside to marvel at how war reporting has changed. The only real-time sources of reliable information are now found on Telegram and X, and even corporate media has begun quoting them instead of the various involved officials. As a result of independent, real-time, open-source reporting, the public enjoys more visibility into granular, hour-by-hour battle detail than in any other war in history.
I often wonder whether Telegram readers have better battlefield intelligence than do the NATO war planners. I’d bet my left kidney the NATO General Staff carefully reads the Telegram channels.
Anyway, as we suspected might happen, following the DNC, the Russians shifted into a new, more aggressive mode. Until this month, Russia’s strategy has been defending its 600 kilometer line of contact, and inching slowly and steadily westward by yards through Ukraine toward the Dnieper, the massive river that bisects that Eastern European country.
But over the last couple weeks, Russian units shifted into overdrive, now making what war commenters call “big arrow” movements, and
racing toward strategic battlefield objectives. Instead of discussing at length the gradual Russian advances in terms of weeks and months and meters, the war bloggers are now dizzily ticking off the increments of Russian victories in days and hours and kilometers.
Not only that, but the Russians are finally fighting like they
want to win. A weekend Bloomberg article reported that, “This week’s air raids on Kyiv and other cities across the country were the largest since Russia’s full-scale invasion began 2 ½ year ago.” The devastating infrastructure attacks produced
this record-setting headline:
Why now? To me, it appears all about the timing relative to the US election. Russia could have done this anytime.
The map above shows the part of the battle getting the most attention this week. The otherwise unremarkable Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk (shown above, top left) is much more remarkable than it appears. It is Ukraine’s last major logistics hub east of the Dnieper river. In other words, after crossing the vast banks of the Dnieper, all NATO supplies pass through this well-positioned town before making their way to Ukraine’s supply-starved forces.
There is no realistic replacement for Pokrovsk’s logistical role.
When the Russians capture Pokrovsk, absent some unforeseen miracle, they will have shut down Ukraine’s ability to easily supply its troops in the Eastern half of Ukraine. Hence, Russia will have won the logistical war.
Ukraine suffers from a warehouse of weaknesses. Ukraine’s only remaining asset is its unlimited supply of NATO weapons and supplies. But if Ukraine can’t deliver the weapons and supplies to its dwindling numbers of troops, that lone advantage will be neutralized, disappearing in an acrid puff of gunpowder residue.
Corporate media headlines are studiously avoiding mentioning the real risk that Ukraine is staggering on the brink of losing fully half its territory, which raises serious questions about its ability to survive the military equivalent of having all its limbs amputated.
It’s hard to imagine what unknown stockpile could deliver a badly-needed miracle. The neocons are bogged down in their unwinnable middle-eastern Proxy War with Iran, and the equally thorny matching political problem at home. The CIA-led ‘peace talks’ with Hamas
are going nowhere, fast. NATO’s inventory for resupplying Ukraine, even if it
could deliver the goods, is gasping for air. For example, Germany just reduced its Ukraine budget to
zero.
Headline from Politico, two weeks ago:
It all looks exactly like we suspected, that Russia has held back for two years, exhausting Ukraine’s ability to fight, and now that U.S. presidential elections are imminent, is doing what it always could have done: easily overrunning Ukraine’s positions with superior manpower, equipment, and air supremacy.
This story is most remarkable because of its incredible timing. A massive loss in the Proxy War is the last thing Democrats want people thinking about going into the November elections. We’ve spent enough money in Ukraine to rebuild Maui, build six border walls, and give free houses to every homeless person in America.
And for what?
America's potential auditor-in-chief blinds media; ironic motorcade pileup makes political point; Proxy War strategy shows strategic Russian timing; military eats recruiting crow over mandates; more.
www.coffeeandcovid.com
It is a challenge calibrating the right level of war news, since some readers hang on every exploded tank, while others press their throbbing temples and mutter “just tell us when it’s over.” So to maintain balance, I try to select an occasional story that sums up the bigger picture. Yesterday, CNN ran an unexpectedly honest story headlined, “
