What Should He Have Done?

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
This is interesting. From Johns Hopkins, this is how SARS-CoV-2 was seen as it broke out in Wuhan. This (i.e., the article info) is the take leaders were given. Note the analysis section. I suspect this is what "drove" experts (like Fauci, etc.) to make the comments they did (as late as 21 January).

I post this not only because it's interesting/informative, but also (and more importantly) because it provides context to the thread's question.

Short article (<3-5 mins reading time):

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Yooper

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This is a good add to this thread, I think:

There are a number of good points being made in this article (so it's worth clicking over).

Two stuck out to me. First, competing models (the opening paragraph):
The downloads folder on my computer is jammed full right now with endless charts depicting data and analysis of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic shocks rolling across the world, and naturally they can tell a widely varying story depending on the data quality and, most crucial of all, the assumptions that go into any model that generates projections about the future—even the near future. Experts and models disagree! Who’d a thunk it?

Hayward then makes the point: what does a political leader do (in the face of these competing models)? He then goes on to address "the myth of the expert." Interesting stuff.

But I want to focus on his point toward the end: the problem of modeling in support of policy-making. Toward the end Hayward writes:
Because today we all too often have the opposite: policy-based evidence-making. This is especially true in the whole climate change circus, but it is also quite evident now in the virus crisis. Remember that Imperial College London “model”...?

Click over to read the punchline.

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itsbob

I bowl overhand
Neither the media nor most of the public will ever get this right, but you should.

The bulk of the responsibility for combatting COVID 19 falls with governors, not the president.

The term for governmental authority and responsibility for health, safety, welfare, and morality is the “police power.” States have police power. The federal government does not.

The president has the power to control the borders of the United States.

So, putting these things together, the chief responsibility for President Trump is to ensure that we do our best to keep people with the disease from coming into the country.

However, most of the people who have brought the disease into the US are Americans who got sick in China or Italy, etc. They have the right to re-enter.

Governors have the authority and responsibility for seeking to stop the spread of the disease once it is in their state.

And we have seen Governors exercise great variation in their approaches. New York, for example, kept their schools open longer than other states.

If we want to know why New York is the hotspot now, we should examine the actions of Governor Cuomo not President Trump.

Indeed, when Trump suggested a federal quarantine on the New York area (NY, NJ, CT), Cuomo correctly said that such an order would be a violation of states’ rights.

Under modern practice, the federal government can assist the states in emergencies, but the true authority resides with the states.

The death toll is tragically rising. Responsibility follows authority.

There is a component of this that is beyond the power of any government to control. But given the statism that so many embrace, there is a wide assumption that government should have prevented every problem.

So if you want to assess blame on this basis, do it correctly. Look to your Governor. Evaluate his or her action. That’s where the constitutional responsibility lies.
 

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
...but you should.
...
So if you want to assess blame on this basis, do it correctly. Look to your Governor. Evaluate his or her action. That’s where the constitutional responsibility lies.
Is "you" specifically "me" or the more general "you"? If you (meaning, you) mean the former I think you misread my point. If you (meaning, you) mean the latter I agree.

Cheers.

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itsbob

I bowl overhand
Is "you" specifically "me" or the more general "you"? If you (meaning, you) mean the former I think you misread my point. If you (meaning, you) mean the latter I agree.

Cheers.

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General you.. as a population.. nobody specific.
 

Yooper

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Here's an interesting tweet thread (click on it and enjoy the thread). I'm posting in this thread because of a tweet he makes about 2/3 in (it's a long tweet thread so give it a couple of mimutes):


Mr. Vance is not a medical person. Hence, he came under criticism. I like his response; very much what we do here on the forum:


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Yooper

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This is a really good article that speaks directly to the thread's question and reactions (by the press, etc.) to decisions made/not made.

The article doesn't snip well at all and it's a bit long. But really worth one's time. Please "pay attention" to the "Goofus and Gallant" cartoon:

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GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
If you really want to understand what happened, don’t read any studies about face masks or pandemics. Read Smith & Pell (2003), Parachute Use To Prevent Death And Major Trauma Related To Gravitational Challenge: Systematic Review Of Randomized Controlled Trials. It’s an article in the British Journal Of Medicine pointing out that there have never been any good studies proving that parachutes are helpful when jumping out of a plane, so they fail to meet the normal standards of evidence-based medicine.



🤣
 

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
Good, right? Really drove the point home. Speaks directly to what I don't like about modern medicine and what I can't stand that's happening in the mental health counseling field: it doesn't matter if it works until one has the requisite number of studies to back it up. Like hydroxycloroquine, amaright?

Hope you're doing well. Cheers!

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