What facts ?
YOUR Statements without any corroboration are nothing more that your opinion
GFYS and your Pedantic Word Games Sapidus ...
What Should He Have Done?
- Thread starter Yooper
- Start date
What facts ?
YOUR Statements without any corroboration are nothing more that your opinion
GFYS and your Pedantic Word Games Sapidus ...
The fact that at the end of january we knew about a novel respiratory virus that was causing an epidemic in Hubei province china ?
I remember it being a few thousand cases at the time. The WHO sitrep from 1/31/20 says 9720. Yes, this was very much 'a thing' at the time for those who pay attention.
Not everyone who disagrees with you is 'sapidus'.
Again, I am sorry the facts collide with your ideology.
Yooper
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I guess I'm not following the logic train here. Only some of the information was there. And based on these initial, incompete SITREPs Trump shut down travel from China (howled at by those who find Trump to be not very bright). Yes, we now know that the virus was elsewhere, but the extent of transmission wasn't known AT THAT TIME. So to blame Trump for not doing more than what he did (when he was already being hammered for what he had done) overlooks the fact that the information at the time was not comprehensive (still isn't) and the problem was exceptionally complex. So the criticism seems more than a bit disingenuous.
As far as ditch-digging in Kuwait..., I find the analogy strained. Trump is briefing a national problem to a national audience AND ceding the podium to the experts when experts need to discuss expert things. COVID-19 is hardly a ditch digging affair.
Kuwait ditch-digging does hold value, however, if looked at from the perspective of the ditch. Can you imagine the platoon leader/commander telling the combatant commander how to run the campaign? I can't. Yet that's exactly what Cuomo in NY is doing; screaming at Trump for not dealing with his local problem when Trump has a far larger battlefield to deal with.
And yet the WHO didn't really raise the yellow/black contagion flag either at that point.* Nor did the aforementioned Cuomo. Or the mayor of New York. Or the mayor's public health expert. They counseled business as usual far into February while Trump was attacked for closing China travel down in late January (Biden, being among the critics). And now Cuomo reluctantly admits he blew it by sending folks home into close proximity with each other and perhaps (actually, almost certainly) helped to exacerbate the problem NYC now faces. Even the myriad public health officials didn't agree what the proper measures should have been, nor are they completely in agreement with what should be done now. If they were in agreement you wouldn't see the governors of Nevada and Michigan banning the use of the hydroxychloroquine/Z-Pac combo while others (like NY) are pushing forward with it.
Sorry, but I see more than a bit of revisionism going on here and elsewhere by Trump's critics. Yet another reason why I agree with the Spectator's "Kipling leadership" piece I linked to earlier.
BTW, I still haven't seen a satisfactory answer to the question this thread initially posed: "What Should He Have Done?" Why? Because, as I noted in my OP, equities. These equities, whatever they may be, mean there will always be numerous points of view to protect always resulting in a non-optimal response. In other words, unless we're willing to roll the dice with a Cincinnatus (something, btw, Trump's critics are always screeching he is trying to be) there is NO completely correct answer to the question. To suggest otherwise is, again, disingenuous.
But we are political animals so while I wish it were otherwise the sniping (that is, unhelpful criticisms) will continue. Job 5:7 and all that.
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* Here's the WHO's initial take. In the face of what we were seeing in Wuhan at the time, this tweet made it seem rather benign (again, AT THAT POINT):
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you are playing the same passive / aggressive pedantic word games ..... so excuse me if I don't believe you ... Sapidus said the same thing under multiple accounts
making statements with NO Corroborating Evidence - new clippings / reports as some fact of Trump did this or did that
It is Myopic Criticism with the benefit of 2 months more Additional Knowledge of what was happening
and they love to go in an stealth edit previous news reports
Yooper
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Dan Crenshaw was quite good this a.m. with his interview on "Fox & Friends." If you can find it on-line it's worth a look. A relatively short interview, but he makes several good points (some implicit rather than explicit). He spoke a bit about a strategy that answers the needs of both "camps": the horizontal (COVID-19 suppression) and the vertical (economic vitality).
Essentially, this:
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Essentially, this:
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I didn't 'howl'.
I know people are grasping on to this 'shutdown of travel' as proof that Trump was this wise and clear headed leader. On the ground this 'ban' did very little as it :
- had a long list of people exempted
- had no real enforcement mechanism
- didn't come with a required quarantine on anyone who came from Hubei province.
I posted the WHO report from 1/31, quite a bit more about the dynamics was known at that time. On Jan 30th the WHOs emergency committee declared Covid19 a 'public health emergency of international concern' (PHEIC) and issued recommendations on tracing, isolation etc.
Statement on the second meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Following the advice of the Emergency Committee today, WHO Director-General has declared the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. In China, more than 7700 cases have been confirmed, and 170 people have died. There are 82 additional cases...
Digging and filling ditches in Kuwait was part of a large war effort. If anyone in the US government reported on it, it wasn't the president.
They did.
The failure of state and local leaders to recognize the gravity of the situation doesn't excuse his errors. Just as the criminal incompetence of the Louisiana state government during Katrina doesn't excuse the flat-footed response from FEMA in 2005.
I gave my answer on what he should have done early on: Recruit a team of competent leaders for the effort, empower them to do what needed to be done and SHUT THE **** UP*.
That is from Jan 14th. We were talking about the end of January.
Jan 30th was the first case of human-human transmission reported in the US. Jan 30th was the day of the WHOs declaration of a PHEIC.
* with 'shut the **** up', I mean of course to give reassuring presidential sounding statements that fully defer to his assigned leaders on any details. Not minimize the numbers, opine on the wisdom of letting a particular ship dock, minimize the significance of patient numbers, suggest using the flu vaccine, comment on limited drug trials etc.
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Here is Yoopers original question:
So, let's engage. What would have been the "strong response" that would have gained national consensus? Toss out your ideas and rationale. Invite (respectful) feedback.
'Toss out your ideas' is what I did. And I guess you consider an admonition to 'go fock yourself' to be an example of 'respectful feedback'.
Had Trump done what I suggested, he would be re-elected come november with 60% of the popular vote ( I am not 'nhboy', so I can't post a link that makes it true. That's just my opinion).
Yooper
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First off, thanks for the (comprehensive) reply. I appreciate the time and effort you took to assemble it.
Second, an apology. I didn't do a good job with my "howling" remark; should have been more clear as to whom I directed it. Didn't have you in mind.
Third, I can't tell if our disagreement if more about style or substance. As such, I guess it's probably (a little of) both. There's probably much we agree upon, but there remains much we don't.
Fourth, that we "disagree" tells me why there is no clear answer to my original OP question. No matter what any leader does someone will be dissatisfied; you this time with Trump (to whatever degree), me with Cuomo (to whatever degree). Next time, different dynamics....
Cheers. Hope your weekend is going well.
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Trump could have appointed Obama's global AIDS coordinator as the leader of his covid effort and the left would have still found fault with it. Oh wait, he did !
Just gave my teenage son a hands-on tutorial on how to clean dog poop out of the tread of your running sneakers. I am having a great weekend !
That reminds me. Our government is run by retarded people. Just went for a run in Fort Washington NP. The park is 'closed' for the safety of their staff and the public. Of course, the place was busy with walkers, runners, bicyclists but instead of parking spread out in the parking lots, everyone was parked outside and had to squeeze through the same opening to get in and out.
Monday Morning Quaterbacking
Yooper
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Not sure it's "Monday Morning Quarterbacking." More like a 1984 "Ministry of Truth" sort of thing.
Anyway, here's an example of the revisionism I was referring to (from the Washington Compost):
February 1, 2020 (and such a cute pun):
March 19, 2020:
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I was more referring to the Orange Man Bad crowd ..... Trump should have done this, Trump should have done that
Trump formed the WH Coronavirus Task Force back in January 30 ... he wasn't sitting around doing nothing, if they want argue WITH FACTS BASED ON KNOWLEDGE From the first week or so in Feb X Y Z should have been done, make a case .... because at the time the Nation was tied up with Impeach Trump
The End of Jan / beginning of Feb. all we had in the news was
Jan. 21, 2020: 1st confirmed case in the United States
Jan. 23, 2020: China imposes strict lockdown in Wuhan
Jan. 30, 2020: WHO declares global health emergency
Feb. 05, 2020: Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantined
Feb. 11, 2020: Novel coronavirus renamed COVID-19
Feb. 26, 2020: 1st case of suspected local transmission in United States
Feb. 29, 2020: 1st death reported in United States
Feb 2, 2020 China Travel Ban
Back in March Congress was trying to Force Trump to LIFT the Chinese and Irianin Travel Bans
Democrat Response to Coronavirus: End Trump’s Travel Bans on China, Iran
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Yooper
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IF the "total number of infected" for SARS-CoV-2 matches this year's influenza infection rate (meaning 39,000,000 become infected with SARS-CoV-2 and come down with COVID-19; which is not unreasonable as it's less than the expected 20% infection rate; 20% would be 66,000,000), then the total deaths will be 663,000!
The difference AT THIS POINT in mortality rates is 1.07% for COVID-19 against .06% for influenza. This means COVID-19 is AT THIS POINT 28.5 times more deadly than the flu!
IF the curve flattening does its job, then the number infected will go down. What remains to be seen is IF the mortality rate remains the same or goes down. I'm guessing this is why Dr. Fauci is saying 100-200k deaths; that curve flattening and measures over time will significantly reduce deaths over the number expected if curve flattening hadn't gone into effect (Fauci seems to be saying that curve flattening and other measures over time will cut the number of deaths by two-thirds...).
In order for the number of deaths to get down to a "normal flu season" we would have to cut the number of infected IN HALF and hope that measures over time (to include, time) have the affect of cutting the mortality rate almost in half. While I think the former is certainly possible I not as sure about the latter....
Maybe my math is wrong. But if not, wow, this COVID-19 is the (unfortunate) real deal. Oof.
Go here for the story:
justthenews.com
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The difference AT THIS POINT in mortality rates is 1.07% for COVID-19 against .06% for influenza. This means COVID-19 is AT THIS POINT 28.5 times more deadly than the flu!
IF the curve flattening does its job, then the number infected will go down. What remains to be seen is IF the mortality rate remains the same or goes down. I'm guessing this is why Dr. Fauci is saying 100-200k deaths; that curve flattening and measures over time will significantly reduce deaths over the number expected if curve flattening hadn't gone into effect (Fauci seems to be saying that curve flattening and other measures over time will cut the number of deaths by two-thirds...).
In order for the number of deaths to get down to a "normal flu season" we would have to cut the number of infected IN HALF and hope that measures over time (to include, time) have the affect of cutting the mortality rate almost in half. While I think the former is certainly possible I not as sure about the latter....
Maybe my math is wrong. But if not, wow, this COVID-19 is the (unfortunate) real deal. Oof.
Go here for the story:
By the numbers: How coronavirus compares with the flu, opioid overdoses
At this point, coronavirus appears to have a higher mortality rate than common illnesses such as seasonal flu
justthenews.com
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Yooper
Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
And now here's the counter-argument (yes, it's about Sanders and his political views, but I was interested in the COVID-19 governmental actions apsect):
Coronavirus: We Should Follow Sweden’s Example - The American Spectator | USA News and PoliticsThe American Spectator | USA News and Politics
For years, progressives have told us that the United States should adopt a health-care system similar to that of Sweden. At present, the most celebrated
spectator.org
It takes its argument from this WSJ article (behind a paywall so I couldn't read it):
Opinion | Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.
www.wsj.com
After quoting from the WSJ article, it makes this statement toward the end:
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This is an unlikely number. The denominator is probably close to right dead is a pretty easy diagnosis, but the numerator is purely guess work. How many people really have it? All of those people with “seasonal allergies”, flu, or occasionally “nothing“ could have or had this already skewing the numbers radically.IF the "total number of infected" for SARS-CoV-2 matches this year's influenza infection rate (meaning 39,000,000 become infected with SARS-CoV-2 and come down with COVID-19; which is not unreasonable as it's less than the expected 20% infection rate; 20% would be 66,000,000), then the total deaths will be 663,000!
The difference AT THIS POINT in mortality rates is 1.07% for COVID-19 against .06% for influenza. This means COVID-19 is AT THIS POINT 28.5 times more deadly than the flu!
IF the curve flattening does its job, then the number infected will go down. What remains to be seen is IF the mortality rate remains the same or goes down. I'm guessing this is why Dr. Fauci is saying 100-200k deaths; that curve flattening and measures over time will significantly reduce deaths over the number expected if curve flattening hadn't gone into effect (Fauci seems to be saying that curve flattening and other measures over time will cut the number of deaths by two-thirds...).
In order for the number of deaths to get down to a "normal flu season" we would have to cut the number of infected IN HALF and hope that measures over time (to include, time) have the affect of cutting the mortality rate almost in half. While I think the former is certainly possible I not as sure about the latter....
Maybe my math is wrong. But if not, wow, this COVID-19 is the (unfortunate) real deal. Oof.
Go here for the story:
By the numbers: How coronavirus compares with the flu, opioid overdoses
At this point, coronavirus appears to have a higher mortality rate than common illnesses such as seasonal flu
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Yooper
Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
I would agree. I hope we're correct. Then we get to dig out of just one hole (financial/economic) instead of two (medical and financial/economic).
My thought in posting was to perhaps provide a bit of insight as to what governmental leaders MAY have been thinking. As you noted, "the numerator is purely guess work." BUT if the best models had this SARS-CoV-2 as being as virulent as the flu and IF the death rate stayed the same "we" would be facing a catastrophe. And thus, we see why what has been done was done. But yes, much of what they knew was theoretical based on best epidemiological practice.
I posted the "rebuttal" link because it's still clear that it is we're facing is not yet clear. Competing models driving different approaches/solutions. Another reason it's difficult to know the answer to the thread's question. Hence, why I posted those links in this thread. In the end, not at all happy with what we're dealing with, but reasonably satisfied as to how we're dealing with it (i.e., if offered multiple crappy options choose the least crappy).
Appreciate the reply. Hope all is going well with you and yours.
Cheers!
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Yooper
Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
Okay. Watching the WH presser and Fauci and Birx (and Trump) are sticking with 100-240k as the mitigated death count.
I really hope they're wrong. But at this point they seem to be saying what I tried to summarize in Post #94 is accurate.
Wow. As someone in the seats said, "sobering."
EDIT: Just saw a post that said The Lancet Infectious Diseases posted a piece on Monday (yesterday) (which I hadn't seen) that lowers the mortality rate to 0.66% (cutting in half the number I posted in Post #94, but still significantly higher than seasonal influenza).
I'm watching The Story on Fox News and stunned about the death of Dr. Goodrich (hadn't heard of him, but he was a renowned neurosurgeon). Stunned because of the loss of life, stunned because of the loss of talent, but really stunned in how COVID-19 is killing people one wouldn't normally see die of the flu.
The only word that keeps popping into my head is, "wow."
So, dear friends:
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I really hope they're wrong. But at this point they seem to be saying what I tried to summarize in Post #94 is accurate.
Wow. As someone in the seats said, "sobering."
EDIT: Just saw a post that said The Lancet Infectious Diseases posted a piece on Monday (yesterday) (which I hadn't seen) that lowers the mortality rate to 0.66% (cutting in half the number I posted in Post #94, but still significantly higher than seasonal influenza).
I'm watching The Story on Fox News and stunned about the death of Dr. Goodrich (hadn't heard of him, but he was a renowned neurosurgeon). Stunned because of the loss of life, stunned because of the loss of talent, but really stunned in how COVID-19 is killing people one wouldn't normally see die of the flu.
The only word that keeps popping into my head is, "wow."
So, dear friends:
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Its their worse case scenario to get us prepared for what could happen but they hope it doesn't. I watched about 20 min of it. The death count must have been yesterday's talking point. At least 3 reporters kept bring it up and were frustrated that Trump kept deferring to the doctors. They wanted him to say something to use.