Originally posted by dems4me
Yes Sam and here we go back on our discussion yesterday about polls, Kerry is beating Bush with 53% of the vote. Its not just me and I have a feeling alot of Liberals are waiting until November to make a stand and their vote which is democracy -- people voting for their candidate
I'm not persuaded by a single barrage of polls in a small time period - Bush has consistently been the winner of those match-ups until just a few days ago. Even as recent as two weeks ago, a Bush-Kerry race produced numbers exactly the opposite of the latest ones.
My job is statistics. It's been statistics on and off for the last 14 years. I'm not saying, hey, I know more about this than you do, but I am saying, there's more to it than I suppose you think there is. You can't take a poll one week and think, that's the way the nation feels for the next ten months. It doesn't work that way. For one - it's a long way to November. And for another, Kerry is experiencing a surge from the primaries - the press is covering him a lot. They're covering Edwards a lot lately, too, because of his showing in New Hampshire and Iowa. That HELPS his popularity.
Media coverage will always give a boost to a politician's popularity - unless it's because of a *gaffe* - but when the smoke clears, you're going to see Bush surge again. He's been ahead in these match-ups for months now - you're going to see a return to it in the near future.