War in Israel has begun. On the 50th anniversary of the country’s 1973 war, southern Israel is in dangerous disarray this morning after the most effective Hamas sneak attack against Israel in decades. We aren’t even sure what’s happening, but the political blame-game has already begun:
Around 4am this morning, the Times of Israel’s live feed was reporting six official dead and up to 100 wounded in a massive coordinated combination attack, where Hamas both fired over 5,000 mortars and also sent terrorist teams from Gaza across the border into south Israel by land, sea, and air — even paragliding in, if you can believe that. Israel civilians are currently on lockdown, hiding in their safe rooms and staying in their homes.
Israel has called up 200,000 reservists.
Videos show soldiers as well as Israeli civilians and their children being abducted as hostages. Credible online reports suggest the number of dead, wounded, and captured is much higher than the official reports, including dozens of Israeli soldiers who were caught unprepared. Telegram channels are reporting several Israeli settlements have been captured. The videos and pictures from the ground are horrifying and I advise caution on what you look at today.
Netanyahu says the attacks are larger than just terrorism; the country has declared a state of war.
The attack comes in the context of $6B in assets that the Biden Administration recently released to Iran, and new that Israel and Saudi Arabia are on the brink of a major peace deal. Commenters are already speculating that the violence is intended to derail the Saudi peace deal.
Based just on what we know so far, there probably has not been as large or coordinated an attack on Israel since the 60’s and 70’s. Until now, Israel’s intelligence services have been extremely effective at detecting, predicting, and preventing any large, coordinated attack like this one. In 2002, Israel went to war with Yassar Arafat after only two of its soldiers were killed. Israel has already begun a counteroffensive and several Palestinian buildings where Hamas were believed to be located have already been destroyed.
Hamas fighters appear to be moving at will through some Israeli settlements.
CLIP: Israeli resident videos Hamas tactical truck in street (0:27).
Militants posted videos of at least one destroyed Israeli tank:
“Terrorists infiltrated into Israeli territory in a number of different locations,” the Israeli military stated early this morning. Israel’s top police chief said in a video statement there were
twenty-one active conflicts across the southern part of the country. Social media videos showed Palestinians cheering as trucks returned to Gaza carrying bodies of Israeli soldiers.
In addition to many soldiers, Hamas captured at least one top Israeli commander:
It seems highly unlikely that commander Aloni’s capture was an accident, which in turn suggests that the action was extremely well-planned with significant intelligence. It also seems unlikely that regional terrorist groups could have accomplished all this without help from a nation-state.
So the big question right now is: how far will this spread? Will other groups be encouraged to join? Anecdotal reports suggest there is a risk of a larger area of effect:
Israeli News 12 reported that an unnamed Israeli minister warned that this might be a distraction before a full-scale war with Lebanon and Syria to the north. Obviously, in the fog or war, there are more hot takes than actual news.
Local Israelis report being mustered up for civilian duty:
It’s a good thing Israelis are allowed to bear arms.
People are already speculating about how the attack — which is not finished yet — will affect public opinion toward Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Ominously, Netanyahu is under immense political pressure to show a muscular response that will discourage the country’s enemies from further mischief and ensure countries like Iran aren’t tempted to take advantage of the chaos.
As of 7:30am Eastern Time, none of the many conflict areas are yet under control. Bellicose rhetoric is streaming from some parts of Israel’s angry army:
The good news is that, so far, there is no sign that Israel intends to blame or attack anyone besides Hamas. Both Turkey and Saudi Arabia have officially called for the fighting to end. I think the issue is not whether the Israelis have the moral high ground. The issue is whether the controversy will spark another regional war. It seems likely that the conflict must get worse before it can get better.
Joe Biden is still sleeping.
But we are awake and praying for all the civilians on both sides, and that cooler heads will quickly prevail.
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