Bustem' Down
Give Peas a Chance
CNN said:
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/12/mideast/index.html
If Israel goes to war with Lebanon, Do you think Syria will get involved?
Israel authorizes 'severe' response to abductions
- Thread starter Bustem' Down
- Start date
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/12/mideast/index.html
If Israel goes to war with Lebanon, Do you think Syria will get involved?
Pete
Repete
What makes you think that Syria isn't already involved? Don't forget, Syria had a military presence in Lebanon for decades until recently. They basically run Lebanon and they fund and train Hezbola. don't forget the same Ba'ath party that ran Iraq runs Syria and they are not known for being too smart.Bustem' Down said:
Will it come to Israel v. Syria? If the "older" Assad was alive I would say no. He remembered the ass whooping they took in 1966 when they attacked Israel and ended up losing the Golan Heights
and I think he was in charge when they tried to get it back in the early 70's and still got thumped. Now that his son is in charge the taste of getting whooped is gone and he just might try it BUT it will be in Lebanon and not Syria. I think getting beat by Jews is bad enough, getting beat and losing territory to Jews is terrible. Israel believes in the "old school" war fighting. If we win, we now own it. Can you say Golan Heights, West Bank of the Jordan river, Gaza strip, Siani Penninsula?
Pete
Repete
That is the thing that pizzes me off. After 9/11 Bush we started the war on terrorism, "you are with us or against us" but when Israel, who has ALWAYS been victim to horrific terrorist attacks gets fed up and kicks ass we "condemn" their actions or "urge restraint".FromTexas said:Israel is bombing the crap out of Lebanon... Who would have seen that coming?
You think they would learn by now not to go dicking around with Israel. I guess they hope Western sentiment is building for them.
Israel knows we just say that and not mean it but still, enough of this pussy footing. I say load up Iraq, we push East and south, Israel pushes east and north and we meet in Afghanistan
B
Bruzilla
Guest
I think Israel is going about this the wrong way. They aren't going to get anywhere launching attacks that kill civilians. The leadership of those terrorist groups have no problems with letting thousands die so they can maintain their claim to power and make Israel look bad in the process. The Israelis aren't out to perpetrate a land grab... they have a specific objective, that being to get their soldiers back. What the Israelis should be doing is using the Mossad to target the mid-level leaders of these terrorist groups and whacking them, then whacking the next one up the chain.
History has shown that Middle Eastern thug leaders will tolerate any amount of suffering or risk on the part of their people, but not much suffering or risk to themselves. Once the head guys realize that the Israelis are coming for them, the soldiers will be released.
History has shown that Middle Eastern thug leaders will tolerate any amount of suffering or risk on the part of their people, but not much suffering or risk to themselves. Once the head guys realize that the Israelis are coming for them, the soldiers will be released.
Pete
Repete
I agree. What I think Israel is trying to do is make the "people" suffer so they will turn in/toss out/expose the Hezbola in Lebanon. They figure that if enough mothers see their kids maimed or killed and the people see their country blown up they will get mad and point to the guy and say "He is in Hezbola kill him instead". Unfortunately that is not how the arab mind works. A terrorist hides behind women and children, when the kids get killed the mother gets mad at Israel instead of the coward using them for cover.Bruzilla said:
Chain729
CageKicker Extraordinaire
Bruzilla said:
Over a hundred airstrikes and only 19 deaths mentioned? That's a hell of an accomplishment. When was the last time we were that good about avoiding civilian deaths?
You have to remember, its guerrilla warfare and the populace supports the guerrillas. Anything you do to hurt the geurillas will hurt the populace- there's no way around it. The militants aren't seperated from the populace, they're inter-twined. Not to mention, with the populace's support, finding them is like finding a needle in a stack of needles.
The best way to find guerrillas is by doing exactly what Israel is doing: Cut transit routes, search every thing (as many times as possible) and occupy what you've already searched.
Also, you have to remember that Israel has been known to use "mafia style" hits, though I haven't read about any lately. The last I recall, they were getting yelled at for it by the outside world- eventhough it was most precise killing methode I've seen. So, they went back to using air-strikes- with the subsequent civilian casulaties- instead.
FromTexas
This Space for Rent
Israel has shown a lot of restraint towards civilians since the escalation w/ the first soldier. They have gone on to a military base in Lebanon and other targets. The airport was probably to help enforce the blockade they have created. Of course, this is about to get a lot more interesting as Hizbollah is ready to hand the soldiers over to Iran. Israel has been itching for an excuse to bomb the crap out of Iran's nuke sites.
Also, Bush has stated Israel has a right to self-defense in this matter. He is not condeming. That would be the French and the Russians.
Also, Bush has stated Israel has a right to self-defense in this matter. He is not condeming. That would be the French and the Russians.
B
Bruzilla
Guest
Chain729 said:
The Israelis can launch thousands of airstrikes and they're going to end up getting nowhere. They have a specific goal in mind, getting their soldiers back, and the only way that's going to happen is if the leaders of the group holding them order them released. There's going to be no mass pleas from the populace for their release, so attacking public areas or buildings is going to do nothing but piss off the locals.
Two highly applicable cases should be remembered by the Israelis. The first was the kidnapping of a Soviet KGB agent in Lebanon back in the 80s. The Soviets sent a KGB team who identified the kidnapper and kidnapped the kidnapper's brother. They tortured, killed, and dismembered him, and dropped off the body parts in front of the kidnapper's house with a note indicating the same was going to happen to him if the agent was not released. The agent was released immediately. The other case was Arrafat when the Israelis finally moved on his compound. Arraft had been willing to let his people go through any level of hell and refused to cooperate with anyone. But when the tanks came through the walls, and his safety was directly threatened, he was calling everybody and anybody - and willing to agree to any deal - to save his own ass.
The leaders of Hezbollah are doing nothing but getting stronger by Israeli attacks because they have the locals convinced that the Israelis are the root of all evil, and the Israelis are doing nothing more than reinforcing their position. The Israelis fight is with the leaders of Hezbollah. Start directly threatening them and they'll order the release of the soldiers.
FromTexas
This Space for Rent
I think you are sadly mistaken, Bru, centering on these key points of logic here:
and here:
1) I don't think Israel's primary goal is to get the soldiers back. I am sure they would really like it to happen, but I am sure they also realized the soldiers may be as good as dead already since they won't negotiate. Therefore, I would suggest their primary goal is to make any single act of these terrorists receive such a disproportionate payback that the terrorists learn every action by them will result in massive escalation.
2) I don't think Israel really cares about a "hearts and minds" battle with the regular Lebanese, Syrian, Iranian, etc... because they know its already drilled into all of these folks that Israel has no right to exist and it should be exterminated. Hezbollah is already strong because it is backed by Syria and Iran... killing a few civilians isn't going to make that any better or worse. They already have millions of Muslims who would do whatever it takes to wipe Israel off the Earth.
and here:
1) I don't think Israel's primary goal is to get the soldiers back. I am sure they would really like it to happen, but I am sure they also realized the soldiers may be as good as dead already since they won't negotiate. Therefore, I would suggest their primary goal is to make any single act of these terrorists receive such a disproportionate payback that the terrorists learn every action by them will result in massive escalation.
2) I don't think Israel really cares about a "hearts and minds" battle with the regular Lebanese, Syrian, Iranian, etc... because they know its already drilled into all of these folks that Israel has no right to exist and it should be exterminated. Hezbollah is already strong because it is backed by Syria and Iran... killing a few civilians isn't going to make that any better or worse. They already have millions of Muslims who would do whatever it takes to wipe Israel off the Earth.
Chain729
CageKicker Extraordinaire
Bruzilla said:
You misunderstood what I said. Blowing up bridges and roads has nothing to do with making the civilians lives difficult. It has everything to do limiting the methode of transport for the militants.
Israel targets the leaders as they find them. The only way to do that is to search. Searching is futile if they're gone before you get there.
Not to mention, like FT said, Israel already considers the kidnapped soldiers dead. 8 soldiers have died finding 3 kidnapped soldiers? Come on now, do the math. Israel isn't trying to find the soldiers. The soldiers are an excuse to hunt and kill as many Hezbollah as possible- especially those leaders that you mentioned hiding Lebanon.
Bruzilla said:
True. But you can't show up to their house tanks, if you don't know where their house is.
Bruzilla said:
So what? They'll never like each other. That battle was over long ago. However, "knocking them back 20 years," adds another twenty years to your head start on the infrastructure, technology, and weapons required to fight a war. Also, as FT said, it reminds them what happens when Israel has had enough. The Israeli's will never be liked by their neighbors, so they gain security by reminding you what the cost of hurting them is. If that doesn't work, you continue to turn up the heat until you can the word "cost" with "fear."
Last edited:
B
Bruzilla
Guest
FromTexas said:
1. What makes you think that the Israelis have any interest in escalating tensions? The last word from them was they had confirmation that their guys are alive.
2. You may be right, but what other reason is there for hitting infrastructure and public targets like bridges, or putting up a naval blockade? How is that going to directly threaten Hezbollah leaders? I doubt they give a crap if a blockade restricts imports as they already have more than enough of anything they need.
FromTexas
This Space for Rent
Bruzilla said:
1) Because, its history... everytime the terrorists/arabs/et al eventually cross some invisible line with Israel, Israel makes them remember it.
2) Because they want to stop the flow of weapons while they beat the crap out of them (as they have said about their bombing and blockades).
B
Bruzilla
Guest
Chain729 said:
Have you ever been to that area? I have, and there's no limits on ground transportation in and out of Lebanon. Besides, why would their leaders leave? Looking at the MO of the Israelis there's no threat to them.
Chain729 said:
I might agree with you if we were talking about US forces, but Mossad has been running agents in this area for decades. I have no doubt that they could locate anyone they want to.
Chain729 said:
I don't know where you and FT are getting your info, but the latest word I've read is that Israeli leaders have confirmation that the guys are alive. I haven't read any reports about anyone "knowing" they are dead. And how many guys did we lose trying to rescue one chopper crew in Somalia, but was our goal in sending our guys in to kill as many Solmalians as possible? I don't remember hearing about that order being given. The Israelis are out to get their guys back, but they're going about it the wrong way.
Chain729 said:
What infrastructure, technology, or weapons are you talking about? You think these guys are the Soviets or something? These guys work out of houses using homemade rockets and scrounged guns. It's not like they have a measureable logistic trail you can obliterate.
As for teaching what Israel will do when they've had enough, the days of Golda Meir and David Ben-Gurion, or even Menachem Begin, are long gone. The current leadership is as terrified of collateral damage and bad publicity as we are.
Bustem' Down
Give Peas a Chance
No not quite yet. We're going to have to wait until June 6th 3006.dustin said:
