Middle East War Briefing


PREMO Member
🚀 Middle East War Briefing: Nothing significant changed overnight in Israel. The ground action has not started (1). Air strikes continued in Gaza, as Palestinian civilians desperately scramble to find a safe place to hide (2). Egypt reinforced its border walls to ensure no Palestinians can escape Gaza, expressing “reluctance” to help (3).

(1) AP: Palestinians flee northern Gaza after Israel orders 1 million to evacuate as ground attack looms

(2) Reuters: Gaza rescue workers scared and exhausted under Israel's air strikes

(3) CNN: The last remaining exit for Gazans is through Egypt. Here's why Cairo is reluctant to open it

It is utterly reckless for us to speculate about what’s really going on. We have no access to classified intelligence or even reliable information. I’m not even sure the Israeli military has access to reliable information. But all we have to go on is media, which is packed with official and amateur propaganda, rumor, innuendo, hot takes, overreactions, and simple errors.

Having issued those disclaimers, since many have asked, I will tell you what I think.

I think Israel may be rushing into a horrible mistake. I think Gaza could be a trap. I base this on two unarguable facts. First, while some quibble around the edges about the extent of the atrocity, Hamas’s furious and morally inexcusable attack was clearly designed to inflame Israelis’ rage and elicit the full spectrum of negative emotion, and to create massive political and moral pressure to force Israel’s government to act fast.

In legal strategy, when an opponent pushes you to act fast, it’s generally because they don’t want you thinking too hard about your next move, and they are hoping you’ll make a mistake. Usually it signals a trap.

The second red flag is Hamas’ unaccountably-high level of intelligence, planning, organization, and execution. Many believe that a major state must also be involved. Obvious candidates include Russia, Iran, and even China. Whoever it is must also have predicted and planned for how Israel would respond. It is impossible to believe the plan somehow stops at Gaza’s border. It looks a lot like they wanted to draw Israel in to Gaza on the ground.

Not only does it smell like a trap, but the certain cost in harms to Palestinian civilians and the predictable loss of Israeli soldiers fighting in the Gaza rubble will be enormous in a ground action, and maybe ultimately unaffordable. Israel has a clear moral imperative to defend itself, but everyone seems to agree there is a lot more going on here than meets the eye.

Based on limited and unreliable information, that’s what I think. Hopefully cool heads will prevail. We will probably find out sooner rather than later.



PREMO Member

Iran Threatens Intervention if Israel Invades Gaza; Warns of “Huge Earthquake” Attack by Hezbollah

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian publicly warned Israel of an attack by Lebanon based Hezbollah that would cause a “huge earthquake” in response to Israel’s attacks on Hamas controlled Gaza after Hamas slaughtered over 1,300 Israelis and kidnapped 150 last Saturday in a surprise attack. Amir-Abdollahian also privately warned Israel via the UN that Iran would intervene if Israel invades Gaza, according to Axios.

Amir-Abdollahian made his threats while on a diplomatic visit in Beirut, Lebanon on Saturday where he met with Hamas and Palestinian leaders and (separately) UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland.



PREMO Member

IDF: ‘Active Effort’ by Hamas to Block Gazans from Evacuating South

“We see an active effort by Hamas to block and prevent the population from going south. Hamas wants to show the world that it has casualties and dead,” IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said, the Times of Israel reported.

“We continue to urge the residents of Gaza City, go south… Hamas wants you as human shields… This is for your personal safety,” the spokesperson added, according to the outlet. “We are going to attack very widely in Gaza City in the near future.”



PREMO Member

Israel: No Negotiations over Hostages; We Are Eliminating Hamas

Tzachi Hanegbi, the head of Israel’s National Security Council, said that the days of negotiating for hostages were over. While Israel was trying to rescue the hostages, it would not hostage prisoner exchanges or stop its military operation in Gaza.

The Times of Israel reported:

National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi said on Saturday that there are no active negotiation efforts underway by Israel to repatriate the Israelis and some other foreign nationals kidnapped by Hamas last Saturday, saying “there is no way right now to have a negotiation” with the terror organization.
“Israel will not hold negotiations with an enemy that we have vowed to wipe from the face of the earth,” he said, briefing reporters at the Israel Defense Force’s Tel Aviv headquarters.

There are thought to be 150-200 hostages being held by Gaza terror groups.

Hanegbi’s remarks angered the families of Israeli hostages, who are already staging protests to demand that the government do everything possible, including negotiating, to secure the release of their loved ones.


PREMO Member

Guess Where Democrats Want Palestinian Refugees to Go

According to experts, as many as a million Palestinian refugees are expected to flee the Gaza Strip as the war between Israel and Hamas rages on.

And guess where radical leftists want them to go? That’s right: The United States.

“Fifty percent of the population in Gaza are children. The international community, as well as the United States, should be prepared to welcome refugees from Palestine while being very careful to vet and not allow members of Hamas,” said Rep. Jamaal Bowman, the New York Democrat and “Squad” member who pulled the fire alarm in the House Cannon Office Building last month in an attempt to delay a vote to avert a government shutdown.

Republicans have already thrown cold water on this idea.


PREMO Member
According to Professor Kamel Hawwash, there are mass desertions in the IDF. The Israeli army is in disarray because they just can't agree to defend their nation after over 1,000 Israelis were murdered by Hamas terrorists.

The only problem with the professor's claim?

It's hogwash. Or maybe Hawgwash?

Reports from Israel’s channel 10: Apparently, Reports of mass desertion among #Israeli soldiers, their refusal to participate in the war, disagreements between commanders, and withdrawals of senior officers and officials.
— Professor Kamel Hawwash بروفيسور كامل إسحق الحواش (@kamelhawwash) October 14, 2023

One undeniably good feature of the TwitterX platform that has been highly promoted by Elon Musk is Community Notes. It has proven to be an invaluable method to combat misinformation, with the advantage that the notes have to be approved by a variety of contributors, with varying viewpoints, and you don't have to take CNN's or WaPo's word for it.

The Community Note was straight and to the point and included a handy tweet to explain:

Since Israel does not have any Channel 10 nor other media reports in regards to the claim exist, it is a fabricated claim.



PREMO Member

Hamas Kills Palestinian Civilians Trying to Flee; Won’t Let Americans Leave

The Times of Israel noted that Conricus expanded on that point during a question-and-answer session on Twitter/X Sunday, accusing Hamas of attacking a column of Palestinian civilians trying to evacuate, killing 70:

IDF spokesperson Jonathan Conricus says a strike on a convoy of Gazans fleeing to the southern part of the Strip Friday appears to have been a false flag operation carried out by Hamas.

At least 70 people, most of them children, were killed in the strike, which occurred on a route that Israel said should be used for fleeing Gazans. Another 200 were injured.


PREMO Member
🚀 Middle East War Briefing: At this point, no Gaza ground assault is expected until after Joe Biden visits Israel later this week. Reading between the lines, the White House intends to try to talk or pressure Israel out of invading Gaza.

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As official numbers continue trickling in (1), Saturday’s devastating terrorist attack on Israel gets worse and worse. Hamas militants slew nearly 300 IDF soldiers. Israel has officially notified almost 200 families their relatives are now hostages, and the number could be as high as 300. The total slain on Saturday now exceeds 1,300, with 4,000 more reported wounded.

Relative to Israel’s population size, there are so many dead and wounded that nearly every Israeli citizen has a first or second-degree connection to someone killed or wounded in Saturday’s attack. The attacks are all they are thinking and talking about.

Yet Israeli public opinion is sharply divided. One group feels the government, especially the leftwing factions, displayed unforgivable levels of incompetence — at minimum — during the entire two year period while Hamas was carefully planning its assault (2). Others feel now is the time for working together, and criticizing Israel’s leadership just helps the enemy (3).

A second U.S. carrier group — the USS Dwight Eisenhower’s five ships — should join the five-ship USS Gerald R. Ford’s carrier group off the coast of Israel sometime this week (4). The growing U.S. Navy fleet in the Eastern Mediterranean is deterring Syria and Iran from taking advantage of Israel’s focus on its war against Hamas. In that sense, the local U.S. military assets are de-escalatory.

Keep your eye on Egypt. For months, Egypt has been in a tense standoff with U.S. intelligence agencies. Egypt angered the deep state when it applied to join Russia’s alternative currency network, BRICS. Right after that, suddenly, unexpectedly, and utterly coincidentally, Senator Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) was turbo-indicted for treason, for accepting bribes from Egypt, and now faces a speedy May 6th trial date (5). Menendez’s political career is finished. In other words, Egypt’s decades-old, Senate-level political tool in the U.S. government was scuttled.

But as ever, the fickle worm of politics has turned again. Now the Biden Administration needs Egypt’s help, to accept Palestinian refugees from Gaza. Yesterday, U.S. Proxy Liar Anthony Blinken went to Cairo begging for help (6). Blinken is totally outmatched. Egyptian President Abdel something-something el-Sisi bargained harder than a Turkish rug merchant. Expect Menendez’s bribery charges to vanish like the morning dew, as quickly and unexpectedly as they appeared, and/or keep an eye on the satellite monitors for an official Egyptian bribe so big it’s visible from space.

(1) Jerusalem Post: Israel blames Iran for Hezbollah fire, says 199 hostages in Gaza.

(2) Jerusalem Post Op-Ed: Pollard: 'Ship of fools steering our country onto the rocks' - opinion.

(3) Jerusalem Post Op-Ed: 'Never Again': Hamas's horrors against Israel highlight need for unity.

(4) USA Today: See how US Navy ships in the Mediterranean are positioned to support Israel.

(5) CNN Politics: Judge sets May 6 trial date in bribery case against Sen. Menendez.

(6) Al Jazeera: Egypt’s tricky calculation as Israel’s assault on Gaza continues.



Well-Known Member
I am certain that should we agree to take palestinians that are running from Israeli forces we will get the same thing we are getting at our Mexican Border.

70% of them will be military aged men.,


PREMO Member
🚀 Day 11 — Middle East War Briefing. All major media sources are focused on the War in Israel and not much other news is getting through the noise.

💣 The “big news” yesterday was a hospital in in the middle of northern Gaza’s air raid zone blew up and a lot of people were killed and wounded. The Israelis had warned the hospital many times to evacuate, but it did not, not even after bombs fell all around it during previous air strikes, just as the Israelis had warned, nor did it evacuate its patients and staff even after the water and power was cut off.

It was just the opposite of evacuated. The hospital was packed with hundreds or even thousands of civilian noncombatants who were there, not for treatment, but for “shelter,” presumably trusting the Israelis not to bomb the hospital even after repeatedly warning the hospital could get bombed.

While the rubble was still burning, Hamas filmed horrifying shock videos of mangled bodies and scorched toys, and outraged pandemonium instantly ensued worldwide as people reacted angrily against Israel (for doing exactly what it said it would) with white-hot hot takes and violently jerking knees.

But then a twist appeared when, a few hours later, Israel published data and videos appearing to contradict the battle-hardened narrative.

Israel made the mistake of using logic instead of emotion. It claimed that, number one, it did not conduct any air strikes in that area of Gaza yesterday. Two, it reported Hamas launched 1,500 rockets toward Israel right down the block from the hospital, a few seconds before the explosion. Third, the IDF said 40% of Hamas rockets normally malfunction and often hit friendlies by accident. Fourth, at least three local videos, two released by Hamas, appear to show the Hamas rocket launch with one fireball returning to earth along with an explosion. Fifth, Israel claimed the Hamas rocket actually fell into the hospital parking lot, and video evidence appeared to support that claim.

Then later, while hardliners nitpicked the first five pieces of evidence, Israel released an audio intercept between two Hamas operatives who appeared to confirm the explosion was caused by a Hamas rocket. One can be heard explaining, “It seems that they fired this from the cemetery behind the hospital, then the way that it failed and it landed on the hospital.”

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SOURCE: IDF audio intercept (gibberish with English transcript).

It is weird how the IDF intercepted this particular discussion but somehow missed all the discussions that might’ve warned them of the original Hamas attack, but I digress.

The developing story and Israel’s persuasive videos, argument, and audio caused newspaper editors’ heads to spin faster than John Fetterman hanging for dear life onto a whirling childrens’ merry-go-round. Here’s one great example: What would we do without the New York Times and its stealth editors? Behold, three papers in one day!

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For what it’s worth, during his short visit yesterday, Joe Biden carefully* reviewed the evidence about the explosion and is siding with Israel. But of course, Biden mangled it, unaccountably referring to Hamas as “the other team,” as though the deadly conflict is some kind of sporting event:
(* results may vary)

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CLIP: Biden languidly whispers deep sadness and outrage and sides with Israel (0:22).

Probably Biden just forgot Hamas’ name, and “the other team” remark was a sundowner technique to cover for the embarrassing gaffe.

Can you imagine poor Netanyahu having to smile through an entire meeting with Biden talking that slow? According to reports, the men met for “longer than expected,” which was just over an hour. I think we can agree the meeting was extended because Biden talked so slow and Bibi had to keep asking Joe’s handlers to explain what he just said.

To be clear: I take no position on who’s to blame for the hospital, because how could I? I don’t have access to the evidence. Neither does anybody else, and so nobody should be reacting emotionally (except perhaps over for the general tragedy of war). But at this point, Israel has presented a credible defense, and the burden of proof has shifted back to the Palestinians to prove that the explosion was not caused by one of their own rockets. They also need to explain why the hospital wasn’t reduced to a skeleton staff after the original Israeli evacuation warnings.

It’ll be a long, emotionally-exhausting war if everyone scrutinizes and argues over every single rocket strike and civilian casualty like this.



Well-Known Member
Akbad, be careful with that rock... Awe Shiite!
jeff dunham explosion GIF