I told you this would happen. Despite the ceaseless and diligent efforts of our crack CIA
diplomatic team, including the Director himself, the Middle East war has not ended in peace but erupted into even fiercer flames this weekend. The New York Times ran a regretful story headlined, “
Why the World’s Biggest Powers Can’t Stop a Middle East War.” Hint:
it’s never their fault.
This remarkable year began with the Crossfire Hurricane disclosures and has only picked up pace since then. Over the last two weeks, for better or worse, Israel completely re-defined modern warfare. First, using exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, hitting Hezbollah below the belt, Israel killed, maimed, or castrated thousands of key civilian employees responsible for the terror organization’s logistics and communications.
Next, with Hezbollah reeling in shambolic disarray, and with Israel’s Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu addressing the U.S. Congress, Israel conducted a series of dramatic, high-profile, bunker-busting air strikes in Lebanon that seem to have collectively canceled Hezbollah’s entire leadership cadre, from its strongman Nazrallah down two or three layers deep on the terrorist group’s org chart.
They are calling it
an organizational “decapitation.”
On Saturday, Al Jazeera ran
a story with this highly suggestive headline:
Will it, though? The fact that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei had to
say it means a lot of folks are rightly wondering whether high-tech Israel has managed to permanently erase one of its most problematic historic enemies over just a handful of days, in what might better be described as
mass assassination than any kind of recognized combat.
Consider just three ways Israel has now changed warfare forever. I realize that seems like a strong claim, and there’s no tangible evidence yet, but that’s because every other country in the world is watching what’s happening in the Middle East in shocked horror and thinking hard about how it affects
them.
First, Israel shattered an unwritten gentlemen’s agreement that has been part and parcel of modern warfare since the Europeans worked out most of those rules while fighting with each other. One essential rule was that nobody targeted the other side’s leadership. Kings and other royals and elites were off-limits. Only
plebes are supposed to fight and die, not
planners. The rule was only rarely breached, in brief outbursts of uncontrolled barbarism by unschooled mobs like French and Soviet revolutionaries.
But Israel just put back on the menu
leadership decapitation as an official state strategy.
Is anyone safe?
Second, Israel showed the world a whole new cheaper, more accessible way of winning. Its high-tech-but-also-low-tech pager and radio bombs put the entire global supply chain into high relief. It’s probably
much simpler to get a few operatives into a subcontractor’s manufacturing line or into a dock workers’ union than do whatever NATO thinks it is accomplishing in Ukraine.
I guarantee the pager bombs cost nowhere near $60 billion dollars. I’d be shocked if the
whole operation cost more than $6 million —including bribes— far less than the cost of a single throwaway Abrams M-1 tank mired in the Ukraininan
rasputitsa. Operation Below the Belt might have cost even less than that.
Third, the critical importance of
security must be on every world leader’s mind right now (if they
have a working mind, cough). Israel penetrated Hezbollah’s supply chain. It also knew exactly where the top leaders were sitting when it sent its guided missiless.
How did Israel know? Did they somehow get into even more Hezbollah devices, in some manner overlooked by the group’s IT teams? Did Israel have compliant human sources that Hezbollah’s security services failed to detect?
How this shakes out is anyone’s guess. We’re off the map, again. But in the short term I expect a trend of countries to start making their own smart devices, and for global supply chains to start contracting.
Hurricane's second week brings sister state relief operations; triple-weird chemical plant fire; Israel re-defines modern warfare and decapitates foe; October's long list of Heavenly Signs; and more.
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