itsbob said:
An aggressive fund you can expect to make between 15% - 25% AVERAGE over the thirty years
Bad, bad, bad. Beware the aggressive fund averaging. It is not what it seems. Let me give some examples.
Lets say you invest for six years. We have one fund with a 10.8% average for that time period and another with a 13% average for that time period. Now, you also have a annually compounding fixed investment for 6% for that time period. Whose the winner? Well, without the details you can not know. So, don't rush.
10.8% fund lost 50% the first year, then proceeded to get 20%, 30%, 20%, 15%, and 30% for the next five years after that. The way those averages work, that comes up to the 10.8%. However, your compounded average dollars should have given you $185 for every $100 dollars invested if you took it at its face value of 10.8% average. Yet, if you compute out starting with $100 and put it through the years, you will end with about $140. Yikes!
13% fund lost 50% the first year (they liked what the other guys invested in), then proceeded to get 100%, 7%, 7%, 7%, and 7% for the next five years after that. The way those averages work, that comes up to the 13%. However, your compounded average dollars should have given you $208 for every $100 dollars invested if you took it at its face value of 13% average. Yet, if you compute out starting with $100 and put it through the years, you will end with about $131. Double Yikes! You just got beat by the 10.8% average fund!
Finally, if you compound 6% fixed for 6 years on $100 you would have about $142! The 6% is the winner!
The reason for this is simple. Fund averages are based year to year but don't account for the change in value (capital) of the fund. They are just a percentage metric. So, if you lose 50%, you can make 100% the next year. If you invested right before that, more power to you, but the fund it still just 0% change over 2 years. However, take 100 minus 50 and divide by 2 and you just got an average annual return of 25%!
So, a stable, conservative growth and income fund will outweight most aggressive funds in the end. Why? They average 8-12% but don't have monumental swings in either direction that will confuse your numbers. They tend to play slow and steady.. and guess what? The turtle had it and he won the race.