Money people - need advice

C

czygvtwkr

Guest
www.gmacbank.com for 5.2% interest

For a mutual fund I actually like an income fund. The Franklin Income Fund has excellent returns for an "income" fund. The major reason I like it is that in good years it mimicks the S&P 500 pretty well but in bad years it looses very little, like 1-2%.
 

FromTexas

This Space for Rent
itsbob said:
BUT you are not taking into account the normal investor that doesn't invest 100k today, but invests a couple hundred a month. During the down times of an agressive fund, say when it lost 50%, you would be buying twice as many shares then at the beginning of the year, when the fund recovers, those new shares you bought are worth double or more of their original value. That is Dollar Cost Averaging, for the 'average' investor. You'll make more money in an account that averages 10% over 20 years, then you will with an account that makes 10% a year for 20 years.

I am very familiar with the DCA argument. However, the case in point here is Vrai re-aligning her nest egg. That means she will be taking the bulk of her savings and putting it somewhere. In this case, loading it all into an aggressive based on mutual fund "averaging" would be the wrong route to take. She can not dollar cost average out that large upfront pot of money if it is going to be the bulk of her savings. Therefore, she should diversify it for good return and minimize any market turns that could jeopardize that pot of funds. True aggressive funds are typically weighted in one or two industries making them highly susceptable to market turns and taking large losses if a particular industry is hit (i.e. tech buzz of the 90s). If you want to do actually do the research, you will find that good, conservative growth and income funds typically outperform all those aggressive fund categories.

I am all for mutual funds. In fact, I think too many people try to play in the stock market way too early. When I worked as an advisor, I used $250k as a standard benchmark for when you should start to move away from mutuals. Once you had a 1/4 million in mutuals, you could start playing in other areas (such as stocks, bonds, etc...). I had some people who didn't follow that rule and they either were real happy or real sad, and hardly ever in between. That is because when you buy even a basket of recommended stocks, you should count on 3 being average to the slightly up or down side, 1 tanking, and 1 being your big prize. If you don't have a good chunk of change, it is hard to diversify/balance appropriately between 5-10 stocks. Then you are just gambling.
 

itsbob

I bowl overhand
FromTexas said:
I am very familiar with the DCA argument. However, the case in point here is Vrai re-aligning her nest egg. That means she will be taking the bulk of her savings and putting it somewhere. In this case, loading it all into an aggressive based on mutual fund "averaging" would be the wrong route to take. She can not dollar cost average out that large upfront pot of money if it is going to be the bulk of her savings. Therefore, she should diversify it for good return and minimize any market turns that could jeopardize that pot of funds. True aggressive funds are typically weighted in one or two industries making them highly susceptable to market turns and taking large losses if a particular industry is hit (i.e. tech buzz of the 90s). If you want to do actually do the research, you will find that good, conservative growth and income funds typically outperform all those aggressive fund categories.

I am all for mutual funds. In fact, I think too many people try to play in the stock market way too early. When I worked as an advisor, I used $250k as a standard benchmark for when you should start to move away from mutuals. Once you had a 1/4 million in mutuals, you could start playing in other areas (such as stocks, bonds, etc...). I had some people who didn't follow that rule and they either were real happy or real sad, and hardly ever in between. That is because when you buy even a basket of recommended stocks, you should count on 3 being average to the slightly up or down side, 1 tanking, and 1 being your big prize. If you don't have a good chunk of change, it is hard to diversify/balance appropriately between 5-10 stocks. Then you are just gambling.
OK, using your example 10% avg, 10% yearly, and I went a little highter to 18% average..

First your example of takinga 50% loss is a LOT extreme, the most I've ever dropped in a single year was in the teens, and some times it was a couple of years in the low teens, so I threw out losing half of my money the first year. MAking the losses a little more believable, 10% one year, 5 % the following I get

10% every year.. 256 (taking rounding into consideration) and 251 if you averaged 10% so if an agressive fund averaged 10% it would be better to go with a conservative fund that makes 10% a year barely, somewhat of a no brainer.. BUT if the same $100 was put into an 18% average aggressive fund (with losses of 10% in two consecutive years) your original $100 is now worth $471, so you still make more money, not including the money you invested every month while the fund was down the 10%.

I may just rework the numbers say making 15% and taking a one year loss of 25% somewhere in the first two or three years, see how it comes out.

15% average over 10 years, taking a 25% loss in the first and third year, you still have $273 in the end, more then the 10% a year....
 

FromTexas

This Space for Rent
1) You can't get $471 in 6 years at 10% unless you average a compounded 30% a year which would mean no losses at 10% in two consecutive years without massive growth in the other years.

2) 50% is completely reasonable. I watched people invest in Janus, Putnam, and other funds as I was starting up working in the financial industry at the end of the 90s/early 00's. Despite being warned to avoid the aggressive funds and the tech craze, meany lost 30-50% in 12 months. Also, shortly after 9/11, losses were massive.

3) We can debate all day. In the end, I am right you are wrong. So, :neener:

:biggrin:
 

FromTexas

This Space for Rent
Third quarter of 2001, of 7,096 stocks, the average stock lost 46%, and 14.6% fell over 50%

But the average stock fund lost just 17.8%, and only 1% fell over 50%

That high of an average demonstrates many were in the 30-50% range due to only 1% being over 50%.
 

BadGirl

I am so very blessed
FromTexas said:
1) You can't get $471 in 6 years at 10% unless you average a compounded 30% a year which would mean no losses at 10% in two consecutive years without massive growth in the other years.

2) 50% is completely reasonable. I watched people invest in Janus, Putnam, and other funds as I was starting up working in the financial industry at the end of the 90s/early 00's. Despite being warned to avoid the aggressive funds and the tech craze, meany lost 30-50% in 12 months. Also, shortly after 9/11, losses were massive.

3) We can debate all day. In the end, I am right you are wrong. So, :neener:

:biggrin:
:blushing: I'm sorry, FT.





Welcome to my world. :bawl:
 

Pete

Repete
2006 return for my 401K was 19.43% :dance:

I have 1 conservative and 5 moderate (45%), 4 agressive (30%) and 2 dynamic (25%).
 

Pete

Repete
FromTexas said:
Hopefully that Bush clown keeps on wrecking the economy.
My Harley stock did good this year :yay:
 

Attachments

  • MStarCharts.png
    MStarCharts.png
    14.8 KB · Views: 92

Pete

Repete
Airgasm said:
Indian,Triumph, Victory...

Curious?
There were some guys trying to revive Indian but I believe the effort went went belly up if I remember right. Then there was a big battle over the trademark. Now the company that ownes Chris Craft boats have the rights and are still trying to get it going.

Victory is built by Polaris and I don't know anything about Triumph except it is a British bike.
 

FromTexas

This Space for Rent
No stock found for anything to do with the Indian 1999 rebirth. There is some business news but it is old, and it makes it look like a private start-up.

Polaris did not do well this past two years.

Triumph is privately owned, so I can't tell you what it would have done.
 

Attachments

  • pii.png
    pii.png
    9 KB · Views: 80

itsbob

I bowl overhand
FromTexas said:
Damn, you kicked the crud out of my BMWs 2 year performance. :ohwell:
BMW doesn't have shower curtain, and ashtray sales to boost thier bottom line, becasue it's a motorcycle, not a way of life. :howdy:

Oh wait, I forgot, BMW makes cars too... something else to overcome.
 
Last edited:

itsbob

I bowl overhand
Airgasm said:
Indian,Triumph, Victory...

Curious?
From what I understand Triumph is kicking butt, something like 19% increase in sales last year. Their Rocket, and Speed series doing real well, hard to believe because you don't see many at all on the road around here.

Victory probably would have been out of business already if it didn't have the backing of Polaris, but I think it will turn the corner and hold their own. Beautiful bikes, well engineered, and American Made.

Indian, I don't know about, but Norton tried a comeback and failed miserably.
 
Top