Money people - need advice

itsbob

I bowl overhand
Pete said:
2006 return for my 401K was 19.43% :dance:

I have 1 conservative and 5 moderate (45%), 4 agressive (30%) and 2 dynamic (25%).
2006 was a great year, 26% 16% and 15% returns, ao I think about the same around the 19% mark (not to include the 100% overnight interest on the matching funds)
 

itsbob

I bowl overhand
FromTexas said:
1) You can't get $471 in 6 years at 10% unless you average a compounded 30% a year which would mean no losses at 10% in two consecutive years without massive growth in the other years.

I did the math again, mixed things up a bit, but still with a fund that averages 18% over a ten year period, taking losses in the second and third year of 10%, still makes $440 at the end of the ten year period. If you averaging 15% or 18% to make the average you have to have huge gains, and that's what aggressive funds generally do, they lose, then they make huge gains, they lose again, they make huge gains.. bottom line with an agressive fund, you have to be in it for the long haul, if you only need to invest for the next 5 - 8 years, you are taking an enormous risk.

That being said, Rich people didn't get rich being safe and conservative. there has to be risk.
 

FromTexas

This Space for Rent
itsbob said:
That being said, Rich people didn't get rich being safe and conservative. there has to be risk.

Actually, most millionaires got that way (if they weren't born that way) by building a foundation. The bulk of the people who retire with a million plus aren't found in glitzy neighborhoods drinking champagne. They are found in old neighborhoods with large, fat aging trees populating their yards. They got this way because they saved over their life, and they usually saved in blue chip, growth and income type investments. At least, when you work as an advisor, that is what all the business statistics tell you. Those stats are generated by companies who look for the money because thats where you make the money. So, you go looking for business in those neighborhoods; and when I did it I was regularly surprised by the many people who were sitting on over a million dollars with a early 90s car in the driveway, an older but good sized home (1-2 story), and no apparent signs of wealth anywhere. These retired folks hardly did anything risky with their lives.

On the flip side, they told you to avoid the new neighborhoods with the million dollar homes, driving Audis and BMWs, and showing obvious signs of spending money. Those people usually weren't sitting on nest eggs and they were definitely playing it more risky.

So, I wouldn't generalize that millionaires become millionaires because they take risks. A large part of those who make it to retirement with a significant amount of wealth did so because they saved in conservative, long term investments and didn't try to rush ahead. However, there are many people who risked it all and made millions or billions. Yet, if you take a percentage of those folks that risked it who actually made their goal, it would be a much smaller ratio than the one ratio of those who took a long term, conservative approach and wound up with their goal. Why play the lower odds when you know you can make it with good odds?

Of course, many people didn't start early enough and don't have the long term. The closer you are to when you think you need that result, the more likely you are going to be to play those lower odds in hopes for a quicker return. But, if you have the time, take the safe bet and get there (not that you should bet if you don't have the time, because then you will more than likely you leave yourself short from what you could have had). Aim for an average return of 10-12% a year which is very achievable in conservative growth-and income investments. In fact, most good advisors will tell you that is all you should expect.

But, that being said, there has to be risk to growth. On that, you are on point. The difference is what level of risk. Growth and income stocks are considered risky to fixed income insured investments. Growth and Income is about middle of the rish with straight Growth above it (still a good part of your portfolio) and Aggressive Growth above that (no real need for it). International Funds and Small Cap can satisfy that desire to chase larger gaains as a portion of your portfolio without actually being truly Aggressive Growth (non-diverse/one or two industry heavy).
 
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itsbob

I bowl overhand
Very well put, and in total agreement with the hidden rich.

The people with the huge houses and the nice cars are usually broke, and I found that out as a recruiter. Drive up to a neighborhood to talk to a kid about the Army, thinking THIS is a waste of time, to find out the kid had no other opportunity. The parents had no money to send him to school, they were living paycheck to paycheck with little or no savings.. etc etc.. They made too much to qualify for financial aid, but had nothing set aside for their children either.
 
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