Monthly Inflation and JOBS

[SamSpade]

Why does it take almost a month to release the quarterly economic numbers .?

Should take about 2 weeks tops. Now once they say we are in a recession, or once the dems try to change the meaning, how quickly will they try to release new numbers because gas prices are dropping.

I can at least speak for other statistical agencies - because the data doesn't always reach us right on the dot. For example, we process and publish stats from 2021 - well into 2022. Why? Because we're still getting the data well into spring - because the data has to cover the previous year up to the last day.

Those monthly or quarterly economic indicators may come across the TV as a single number - but they carry with them volumes of data. And it all has to be checked, verified, sometimes imputed or reweighted - it can take a while.

 

[SamSpade]

Bernie Sanders says Inflation Reduction Act will have 'minimal impact' on inflation​

The lame ass still voted for it. This is why you should never pay serious attention to the guy.

 

[SamSpade]

Sperling claimed the IRS has been “poorly invested in” regarding technology and personnel, impacting the capacity to effectively carry out its job.

“How did that happen?” MacCallum sarcastically asked. “The cost of government goes up and up and up every year. So why would we be so far behind the eight ball with this technology?”

Two things - one is - yes, it's often true that government agencies often fall way behind the eight ball when it comes to adopting new technologies. From my experience, it's just not always cost effective to continually upgrade every single system. Upgrades to things like software systems and operating systems are often upgraded on a schedule - but I can tell you many desktops were still running Windows XP more than ten years after it was introduced.

MANY years ago, I was at a conference where the newest features of a software package we used on our mainframes were being introduced, and a co-worker asked a question I REALLY wanted him not to ask - because I knew the answer. He asked if the new software could do X, and the speaker got a puzzled look and said that feature was available some five versions back.

THIS - this, I'm fairly familiar with. Upgrades and keeping up with technology changes OUGHT to be baked into the budget, but it's usually the first to go, along with training.

But the second thing is -

JUST ABOUT every damned year, the IRS manages to bring in a record amount of revenue - they (almost) always bring in a lot more money than the year before. The problem isn't they're not bringing in enough money - the problem is, they're now close to spending TWICE the amount they bring in. They consider it praise-worthy when they only spend 50% more than they bring in.

THEY DON'T NEED MORE AGENTS to get the money. They need to stop spending it. This effectively DOUBLES the size of the IRS. If they ever, ever had the sense to eliminate most income taxes and put us all on some kind of consumption tax, the IRS wouldn't be needed at all.

 

[stgislander]

Yeah, doesn't sound like much of that IRA money going to the IRS is for technology. Maybe they need to steer some of that money away from more agents, and upgrade their computer systems from COBOL.

 

[GURPS]

Americans have lost an average of $4,200 in annual income since Biden took office: Study lays bare how gains under Trump have been wiped out - while crippling inflation has sent prices surging​

• Consumer prices have risen 12.7 percent since 2021, far outpacing wages
• Experts at the Heritage Foundation believe this has cost Americans about $3,000 each in purchasing power
• As the Fed pushes interest rates to a range of 3-3.25 percent, higher borrowing costs are squeezing Americans on mortgages, vehicle loans and credit cards
• The $4,200 loss erases the $4,000 increase in annual earnings that occurred under the Trump administration

 

[GURPS]

 

[GURPS]

 

[GURPS]

Biden administration assurances about inflation last year continue to age terribly (roll tape!)​

 

[herb749]

Gas is going back up and winters coming with higher heating oil & natural gas prices.

 

[GURPS]

Gas Prices Are Going Up at the Worst Possible Time for Democrats, Poll Shows​

The poll found that 11.2% of Democrats say they will be more likely to vote for Republican candidates in the 2022 midterm elections. Just over three-quarters (75.5%) say they will be more likely to vote for Democratic candidates if gas prices continue to rise. The poll also found that 93.4% of Republicans say they will be more likely to vote for Republican candidates in the 2022 midterm elections if gas prices continue to rise, and 2.8% said they’d be more likely to vote for Democratic candidates.

Of course, those findings aren’t nearly as consequential as what independents say, and based on these results, you can understand why Joe Biden attempted a quid pro quo with the Saudi Kingdom to postpone oil production cuts until after the midterms. According to the poll, 55.5% of independents said higher gas prices would make them more likely to support Republican candidates in the 2022 midterms, while only 21.3 percent said they’d be more likely to support Democratic candidates if gas prices continue to rise.

“These numbers shed light on President Biden’s desperate attempts to hide from voters the impact of his Administration’s far-left energy policies,” said Mark Meckler, president of the Convention of States. “From recklessly depleting our nation’s strategic oil reserves, to pressuring OPEC countries to postpone cuts in oil production through the November elections, it’s clear that they’re playing politics with our pocketbooks. That is both bad politics and bad policy.”

Democrats had hoped that anger over the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade would prevent the red wave that has long been predicted for November. Still, polls have consistently shown that abortion is not the most critical issue for voters.

 

[Kyle]

 

[GURPS]

Democrat Senate Incumbents Refuse Responsibility for Fueling Inflation, Gas Prices​

The costly inflation, the number one issue in the 2022 midterm cycle, has caused Democrats to displace the blame for soaring costs on the fossil fuel and pharmaceutical industries rather than on their fiscal or energy policies.

On Thursday, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), who is losing in the polls to Republican Adam Laxalt, claimed gas prices are spiking because oil companies are not producing enough oil. “Instead of increasing supply, they’re taking in profits,” she tweeted.

Masto did not mention that gas prices have spiked since Democrats regained control of the executive branch, legislative branch, and administration state in 2021. Nor did she mention President Joe Biden’s campaign promise to reduce oil drilling. In the last two years, the Biden administration has succeeded in driving up private and public financing costs of oil drilling, halting drilling on public lands, and canceling the Keystone pipeline.

 

[GURPS]

The 'Experts' Were Never Going To Fix Inflation​

That bring us to the current day. The Fed has increased rates several times. Public and private borrowing costs are up, the market is unsettled, and yet underlying inflation is worse while employment remains strong. This intensifying pain is leading some commentators and politicians to urge the Fed to stop tightening until we know if the previous hikes have worked or not. The lag between Fed actions and visible impact, they say, could be years and we don't want the Fed to tighten things too much.

As someone who never had faith that the same central bankers who created and missed the biggest inflation in 40 years could guide our complex economy back to health with only the crude tools at their disposal—asset tapering, interest rate hikes, and backward-looking models—I'm baffled by the debate. We were told for years that the mighty Fed had not only conquered inflation but could now use its powers to produce inclusive economic growth, control the climate, and reduce inequality.

Where did the confidence go? In truth, the idea that the Fed (or anyone) possesses the knowledge necessary to fix, control, or grow the economy with perfectly calibrated top-down policies was always an illusion. That bubble just burst.

Indeed, inflation control was always going to be messy, painful, and politically risky. While the risk of overshooting is real, the much bigger risk is that Fed officials will cave to political pressure and loosen monetary policy too soon, thus causing inflation expectations to shoot up and inflation itself to follow. If this happens, the cost of permanently eliminating the problem would only rise.

 

[GURPS]

Price levels rose 7.7% between October 2021 and October 2022, according to a Thursday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicating that inflation has begun to slow amid contractionary policy from the Federal Reserve. The month-to-month increase of 0.4% was below analysts’ forecasts, while the 0.3% increase in core inflation, which factors out the more volatile food and energy categories, was likewise lower than expected.

The lower headline number was driven by declines in areas such as used vehicles, apparel, and medical care services, which have a lower day-to-day impact upon consumers. Overall food prices rose 0.6% while energy prices rose 1.8%, the first such increase since June. Shelter costs rose 0.8%, marking their fastest increase since the beginning of the year.

“The pervasiveness of price increases remains problematic,” Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride said in a statement provided to The Daily Wire. “In categories that are necessities — shelter, food, and energy — we continue to see large and consistent increases. The areas posting declines are for the most part either irregular or more discretionary in nature — airfare, used cars, and apparel.”

Here Are The Areas Weighing Heavier On Your Wallet As Inflation Persists | The Daily Wire

www.dailywire.com

 

[GURPS]

Democrats Are Getting Very Nervous About the Fed's War on Inflation​

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is mad at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell after Powell announced that the Fed was going to raise interest rates another half a percent.

“He’s pushing hard to get more people fired because he thinks that is one way to help bring down inflation,” Warren told HuffPost on Wednesday. “But it’s sure painful for the families who lose their jobs.”

Yes, it is painful if you lose your job. Perhaps Warren’s boss, Joe Biden, should have thought about that before pouring $5 trillion into the economy,

And it’s not only Powell who thinks this is “one way to help bring down inflation.” It’s every economist who isn’t a socialist loon who thinks that way.

Democrats are beginning to get very nervous that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring down inflation will be so successful that it will tip the U.S. economy into a recession.

 

[GURPS]

 

[GURPS]

 

[GURPS]

Prices are falling, but not for food. Groceries remain a "pain point."​

Although inflation has fallen for seven straight months, prices for one item that is a major part of every American's budget continues to rise: the food we eat at home.

Grocery inflation picked up in January, even as overall U.S. prices fell slightly from the previous month, according to federal labor data. Prices for food at home — what people buy at retailers to prepare their own meals — jumped 11.3% in January from a year earlier, the Labor Department said on Tuesday.

• "Hunger cliff" looms as 32 states set to slash food-stamp benefits

Many households continue to feel the pinch, even as the overall inflation rate is slowly receding, thanks to lower costs for items such as used cars and airline fees. Seniors and low-income households are among the most hurt by stubbornly high prices in the grocery aisle. Although Social Security recipients received an 8.7% cost-of-living increase for 2023, the biggest jump since 1981, the bump still lags food costs, while the poor generally spend a greater share of their overall earnings on food.

 

[DaSDGuy]

Inflation only documents increases. If inflation is going down the increases are going down. The previous increases remain.

 

[GURPS]

Joe Biden Falsely Claims Food Prices Are ‘Continuing to Come Down’​