How provincial.Any photos of Jill shopping at Giant .?
Monthly Inflation and JOBS
- Thread starter GURPS
- Start date
It has come to this...WSJ suggests skipping breakfast to save money
Pretty sure the suggestion was tongue in cheek, but in the days when the powers-that-be think you should be eating bugs to save the planet, itâs difficult to be sure.
The suggestionâsarcastic or seriousâcomes after the latest inflation report which was not exactly good news for your pocketbook. Despite dramatic rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the tremendous âsuccessâ of the Inflation Reduction Act (which is, ironically, destroying your IRA), the price of breakfast foods continues to skyrocket.
Egg price increases were the worst.
Biden Falsely Claims Food Prices Are Down, Reality Is They Are Up 11.8%
President Joe Biden is again lying to the American people, claiming the country is in better shape than he wants you to believe.
On Tuesday, Biden falsely claimed that inflation, including food prices, is on the mend. However, the inflation report revealed that prices increased during January.
"Today's report on inflation shows the good is that inflation in America is continuing to come down," Biden claimed. "Food prices at the grocery store are coming down."
However, the price of grocery store items rose 0.5 percent since the beginning of the year. Over the past 12 months, food prices went up 10.1 percent.
I'm surprised he didn't suggest that white people skip breakfast. You know... because of systemic racism.It has come to this...WSJ suggests skipping breakfast to save money
Pretty sure the suggestion was tongue in cheek, but in the days when the powers-that-be think you should be eating bugs to save the planet, itâs difficult to be sure.
The suggestionâsarcastic or seriousâcomes after the latest inflation report which was not exactly good news for your pocketbook. Despite dramatic rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the tremendous âsuccessâ of the Inflation Reduction Act (which is, ironically, destroying your IRA), the price of breakfast foods continues to skyrocket.
Egg price increases were the worst.
Or Breakfast was RACIST ..,.. certain foods or meals have been attacked as racist lately as white supremacist
Well breakfast was invented by blacks, and whites glomed onto it.
Jedi Biden bringing balance to the universe.
Sneakers
Just sneakin' around....
He gets a high midi-chlorian count from the covid injections.
Revisions in Jobs Report Show a Slower Jobs Market Than Portrayed by White House
CNBC: âWe lost 150,000 jobs on revisions ⊠Thatâs a huge drop.â
SamSpade
Well-Known Member
I don't typically follow the pattern of jobs added and revisions - is it always this way? Do revisions always show slower growth?
Even if it doesn't, just as a matter of ENGLISH, I expect a "revision" to be a small change - when someone revises a speech, I don't expect to see almost half thrown out.
Brandon lied??? Say it ain't so, Joe
And the media would never sat that. If a republican was in office this news would be terrible and talked up for weeks.
Tilted
..
Revisions for the 2 previous months vary greatly. Sometimes such revisions are tiny, sometimes they're quite large. These revisions are toward the larger end of the spectrum. (In 2020, e.g. and for likely obvious reasons, we saw some revisions that were much larger than these.) The revisions are also a mixed bag when it comes to direction. Some years it seems they're almost all downward, some years it seems they're almost all upward. Some years it's nearly an even split. I suspect the mean revision going back decades is pretty small (and likely positive) and it would certainly be much smaller than the absolute mean revision. In other words, revisions are historically pretty balanced between downward and upward.
Some color regarding your last point: Yes, these revisions are, as reported, large on a percentage basis. The aggregate revisions are a little more than a quarter of the previous aggregate number - down 149,000 from 562,000 over the previous 2 months. But that's mostly because they're revisions to a net number which is made up of component numbers which dwarf that net. A reported nonfarm payroll increase of, say, 250,000, is typically going to mean something like 5,000,000 payrolls were added during the month while 4,750,000 were lost. So a small-ish revision in either one of those components can seem like a large revision, as reported, to the net estimate. If the payroll additions estimate goes down 2% and the payroll losses estimate stays the same, the net increase goes down 40% from 250,000 to 150,000. (EDIT: I should add, there's another way of describing the effective components of the net number which would make much the same point; but I won't run through that for now.)
A little more color: The numbers from the Establishment Survey (e.g. the nonfarm payroll numbers) are more counts than sample-based projections as compared to the numbers from the Household Survey (e.g. the unemployed numbers). But they're still, to some extent, sample-based projections. Because the reporting period for the initial monthly estimates (i.e. for the current reported month) is so short (i.e. something like 2 weeks), a meaningful amount of the reporting population (i.e. establishments/employers) doesn't report the relevant information in time for those initial estimates. Whereas something like 70% will report in time for those initial estimates, something like 90% will report in time for the second estimate (i.e. the month previous to the current reported month). That's a decent amount of new data coming in to be factored into the second estimate. Something like 95% will report in time for the second revision (i.e. third reported number for a given month). (Monthly numbers are also revised once a year in what's called a benchmark revision; this is where the reported numbers effectively go from sample-based estimates to counts.)
Taking a step back from that specific color: The revised numbers are still, all things considered, pretty damn good. And on the whole this last Employment Situation Report is really good. But these reports include thousands of data points and, to the extent someone might want to, they can always find particular data points that support a contrary narrative. Within even the worst ESR can be found support for a positive spin. Likewise, within even the best ESR can be found support for a negative spin. Such spin, of course, typically tells us more about the agenda of the parties commenting on the reports than it does about employment situation realities themselves. The overall employment situation in this country is (fortunately, I'd say) cooling somewhat - see, e.g., recent job openings numbers. But it (unfortunately, I'd say) remains somewhat inflationary. Thus we continue to see signs advertising $88 / hour starting wages for convenience store employment. (That's slight hyperbole, of course.)
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The Financial Times ran a story this weekend headlined, âEuropeâs Politicians Impose Price Caps to Address Soaring Food Costs.â The subheadline explained, âHigh inflation sparks return of controversial measure that retailers say forces them to sell at a loss.âItâs never going to work.
The Financial Times began the story this way:
When you see references to â70âs economic policy, think Jimmy Carter, the second-worst president in U.S. history (Joe Biden having made Carter look like a scratched-at-the-post non-starter.) Next, remember that all this inflation was caused by Western governments taking advantage of the pandemicâs crisis to print money to fund every stupid idea they ever had.
Now they are dealing with the inevitable consequences.
Price controls are very attractive to politicians grappling with the early stages of hyperinflation. Price controls are easy to implement, they look effective, at least at first they do, and are usually popular with an increasingly desperate public because they seem to provide immediate relief.
If a countryâs current crop of leaders are ones with low IQs, the kind of zany, colorful politicians that get elected/selected during good times, then inflation and price controls are bound to surface somewhere.
Price controls are central planning at its best, or worst, depending on how you look at it. The central planners, who never created anything in their lives, or ever planned anything using their own money, think they know what every good and service should cost better than the market does.
Setting fair prices is easy! You just need a strong government to put those greedy capitalists and opportunists in their places and â voilĂĄ! â the ailing economy will cough itself into new life, and start running smoothly and efficiently for the benefit of the people.
But you knew there was a catch coming.
The problem is with the law of supply and demand. Consider that title. Itâs a âlaw.â We have a âtheoryâ of evolution, a âtheoryâ of gravity, and a âtheoryâ of relativity, but there is a LAW of supply and demand. Itâs a law, because you canât break it without going straight to economic jail.
One of the first provisions in the law of supply and demand is, when planners fix prices, citizens experience scarcity. In other words, when governments mandate low profits in one area of the economy, producers take their money out of that area, and invest it in other, more attractive areas.
So, if profits on carrots fall too low, because sales prices are fixed, people will just invest their money in bitcoin instead of growing carrots, and there wonât be any more carrots to buy. Itâs that simple.
After price controls start, scarcity doesnât dally, and according to the Financial Times, scarcity is already showing up:
See? The reporter knew it, too. They just werenât allowed to come right out and say it.
Eventually scarcity will become a much bigger problem than inflation. Scarcity literally starves citizens. At that point, governments face even less attractive options than price controls: they can remove price controls and issue a new, de-valued currency to stop a gigantic post-control pricing spike, or they can nationalize key industries like agriculture, housing, and other life essentials.
Nationalizing means taking those industries over and running them as a government service. But government is much less efficient than the private sector, so after nationalization, citizens will have to deal with scarcity anyway, plus lower quality, and worst, thereâs nobody to sue when somebody dies after eating an unwashed, wormy apple with dangerous pesticide on it, because you canât sue the government.
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FDA fails America - again; European price caps will fail; Pentagon fails to account for $3B; Kim Dotcom's whistleblower; Chuck Todd says FBI failed; Fox layoffs failure; and WSJ covers for pedo Gates.
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