truby20
Fighting like a girl
Penn said:
Well there is more concern about Rita because of her forecasted track, possibly affecting the Florida Keys then into the Gulf of Mexico, the possibility of even a minor hurricane affecting the LA/MS/AL region is cause for huge concern. The levies are only patched and the ones that weren't breached by Katrina were at least weakend.
Philippe is forecasted to take a more northly direction, probably curving out to sea.
For more info into how they are determining where TD 18 will go check out the discussion from the National Hurricane Center.
Here is a little bit talking about intensity forecasts:
Basically the forecasters there use guidance from several computer models and their knowledge of current conditions and where the models have less skill they construct a forecast. The forecasts are issued four times a day (5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, 11 pm EDT) for each storm in the Atlantic. The Weather Channel and other media outlets then relay that forecast to their viewers, occasionally they may disagree with what the National Hurricane Center is forecasting but when they put their graphics up the forecast plot information is from The National Hurricane Center. Based on what the forecast track is NHC will issue watches and warnings, then the local emergency managers determine what type of precautions residents should take (evacuations, gathering supplies, sending people to the superdome...etc).
Water temperatures in the Gulf are in the upper 80's and trade wind conditions are favorable; once Rita gets her act together and gets named I'm sure she will strengthen quickly.
Canuk!!!