New Stanford Studies on COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rates Should End Covidstan Forever
One of the strangest features of the pandemic is the personal and sometimes professional attacks on well-respected researchers and physicians who dissent from the narrative of our health agencies. For months, anyone who does this knows the cost, and they choose to proceed. Because of this trend, I tend to take what they say pretty seriously. For them to buck the system at this point appears to be motivated by their conscience.
Ioannidis authored two new studies on infection fatality rates (IFR) for COVID-19. One is published in the
Bulletin of the World Health Organization and calculates overall IFR
. Using seroprevalence studies, which measure the portion of the population with antibodies to COVID-19, he estimated the number of infections worldwide. From that calculation, he estimated the
overall IFR as of September of 2020:
Acknowledging these limitations, based on the currently available data, one may project that over half a billion people have been infected as of 12 September 2020, far more than the approximately 29 million documented laboratory-confirmed cases. Most locations probably have an infection fatality rate less than 0.20% and with appropriate, precise non-pharmacological measures that selectively try to protect high-risk vulnerable populations and settings, the infection fatality rate may be brought even lower.
For reference, the generally quoted IFR from influenza globally according to the WHO is 0.1%. So, Ioannidis’s finding implies COVID-19 is twice as deadly as the flu. That is why the second study is so important. In a preprint titled “
Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in community-dwelling populations with emphasis on the elderly: An overview,” he calculates age-adjusted IFR rates.
These calculations do not take comorbidities into account. So, while the results may vary in different regions of the world based on the status of the healthcare system, socioeconomics, and overall health status, they should serve as a guide to consider the relative worth of interventions like vaccination, masks, social distancing, and lockdown. For example, the U.S. has an advanced healthcare system and is regarded as a wealthy nation, improving the IFR. However, we have higher than average rates for comorbidities, especially obesity, than other nations, which could elevate the IFR inside the range.
Age stratified infection fatality rates for COVID-19 Ioannidis and Axfors July 2021.