Price of Gasoline.

B

Bruzilla

Guest
dck4shrt said:
By the way, if you don't think that Katrina itself was responsible for short term supply problems (and higher prices) than you need to do some research into the effect that the storm had on actually delivering crude oil and refined product to the marketplace (real supply issues). The price went down because some of the less damaged refineries got back on line and the price spike caused European companies to start shipping refined gasoline across the Atlantic (the price was right). Look up how long it takes for a tanker to go from Rotterdam to New York, and that's about how long it took for prices to ease off after the hurricane.

I'm not arguing that US oil majors make a measly .09 cents per gallon...they can potentially make a whole lot more than that, depending on how many fingers they have in the cookie jar. But, what I will argue as fact, is that US oil companies have zero ability to control (or even affect) oil prices.

Believe me... I did plenty of research on the effects of Katrina as I was using it as a major human performance piece that I was working on. At the time prices started to fall, again... immediately after serious discussions of government involvement began, the work to repair damaged facilities on a simple numeric basis was well under way, but the work on a qualitative or quantative basis had barely started. At that point there was a lot of work completed on minor, superficial, damage to oil facilities. Damage that had limited some production but not by much. The severe "show stopping" damage to the facilities had barely started. At the point that prices were dropping about 60% of the work that needed to be done had been completed, but the last 40% of the damage constituted about 88% of the production shortfalls.

As for global oil prices, who do you think is buying the oil and setting the prices? There was an oil futures trader who called into Rush Limbaugh yesterday and was telling him about how oil companies are up to their necks in adjusting oil prices. Their fingers are in the drilling, transport, and refining pots, and they are (on their retail side) many of the biggest buyers of crude. Even Limbaugh had to admit that he had learned something and quit piping about the vaunted 9-cent profit he's been harping about.
 

dck4shrt

New Member
Bruzilla said:
Believe me... I did plenty of research on the effects of Katrina as I was using it as a major human performance piece that I was working on. At the time prices started to fall, again... immediately after serious discussions of government involvement began, the work to repair damaged facilities on a simple numeric basis was well under way, but the work on a qualitative or quantative basis had barely started. At that point there was a lot of work completed on minor, superficial, damage to oil facilities. Damage that had limited some production but not by much. The severe "show stopping" damage to the facilities had barely started. At the point that prices were dropping about 60% of the work that needed to be done had been completed, but the last 40% of the damage constituted about 88% of the production shortfalls.

As for global oil prices, who do you think is buying the oil and setting the prices? There was an oil futures trader who called into Rush Limbaugh yesterday and was telling him about how oil companies are up to their necks in adjusting oil prices. Their fingers are in the drilling, transport, and refining pots, and they are (on their retail side) many of the biggest buyers of crude. Even Limbaugh had to admit that he had learned something and quit piping about the vaunted 9-cent profit he's been harping about.

No one is 'setting' the prices!!! Companies, governments, and organizations are bidding on the price of oil. If you go to an art auction and someone pays $5 million for a painting that has a real world value of 5 bucks when you add up the price of the paint and the price of the canvas no one says someone 'set' the price at 5 large. Two or more potential buyers bid for the painting and determined at that point in time that was the market value of the item. Same thing with oil.

American companies have working interests in about 8% of the worlds oil resources. There is no way possible for them to manipulate the market as you suggest. You insinuate that there is a wholesale conspiracy around here. I say it's impossible. Our demand for oil, here and abroad, has steadily increased. New finds of oil (>500 million barrels) are unheard of anymore. The ability of producers to supply oil to meet demand is 'stretched', as in there is no excess capacity. You should read up on what 'peak oil' means. Just google it. We have passed peak oil. The market will progress in fits and starts for quite some time. The economists who have studies this and predicted this for decades have perfectly described the situation to date. At this point on the curve past peak oil it is predicted that the markets ability to 'absorb' events like Katrina, Nigerian strife, and Iranian chest-thumping are diminished. It's also been well predicted that nationalist interests (even your own plan for oil 'independence') will prevail. The daily changes in NYMEX oil and your local Wawa are just noise in the data. The price fluctuated like this before we had such a 'crisis' too, you know...
 

MMDad

Lem Putt
dck4shrt said:
No one is 'setting' the prices!!! Companies, governments, and organizations are bidding on the price of oil. If you go to an art auction and someone pays $5 million for a painting that has a real world value of 5 bucks when you add up the price of the paint and the price of the canvas no one says someone 'set' the price at 5 large. Two or more potential buyers bid for the painting and determined at that point in time that was the market value of the item. Same thing with oil.

American companies have working interests in about 8% of the worlds oil resources. There is no way possible for them to manipulate the market as you suggest. You insinuate that there is a wholesale conspiracy around here. I say it's impossible. Our demand for oil, here and abroad, has steadily increased. New finds of oil (>500 million barrels) are unheard of anymore. The ability of producers to supply oil to meet demand is 'stretched', as in there is no excess capacity. You should read up on what 'peak oil' means. Just google it. We have passed peak oil. The market will progress in fits and starts for quite some time. The economists who have studies this and predicted this for decades have perfectly described the situation to date. At this point on the curve past peak oil it is predicted that the markets ability to 'absorb' events like Katrina, Nigerian strife, and Iranian chest-thumping are diminished. It's also been well predicted that nationalist interests (even your own plan for oil 'independence') will prevail. The daily changes in NYMEX oil and your local Wawa are just noise in the data. The price fluctuated like this before we had such a 'crisis' too, you know...

Come on now. You really don't beleive that OPEC isn't controlling the prices, do you?
 

dck4shrt

New Member
MMDad said:
Come on now. You really don't beleive that OPEC isn't controlling the prices, do you?

I don't believe that OPEC is controlling prices. How do you suppose they are doing that? They are producing at/near capacity. It's not like they've turned off the wells. Look at their production figures.
 

dustin

UAIOE
87 was $2.69 at the 301 exit on I-95 in VA.... 20 miles down the road on 301 it was $2.79.... Chesapeake, VA it's $2.89....

I still think individual stations are gouging....
 

MMDad

Lem Putt
dck4shrt said:
I don't believe that OPEC is controlling prices. How do you suppose they are doing that? They are producing at/near capacity. It's not like they've turned off the wells. Look at their production figures.

Isn't it convenient how OPEC sets production quotas according to what they tell you their capacity is. If OPEC doubled quotas tomorrow, without any promise to increase capacity, prices would drop, production would increase, and OPEC would suddenly find the capacity to meet demand.

There are really only two issues here:

1. OPEC is a monopoly that can bend us over the barrel any time they want to.

2. We are addicted to their product.

All of the easy fixes - boycotts, government control, ANWR, rebates, and even conservation - are at best bandaids that do nothing to stop the problem. We are dependent on a finite resource. We are years away from stopping the growth of our dependence, much less reducing it.
 

dck4shrt

New Member
MMDad said:
Isn't it convenient how OPEC sets production quotas according to what they tell you their capacity is. If OPEC doubled quotas tomorrow, without any promise to increase capacity, prices would drop, production would increase, and OPEC would suddenly find the capacity to meet demand.

There are really only two issues here:

1. OPEC is a monopoly that can bend us over the barrel any time they want to.

2. We are addicted to their product.

All of the easy fixes - boycotts, government control, ANWR, rebates, and even conservation - are at best bandaids that do nothing to stop the problem. We are dependent on a finite resource. We are years away from stopping the growth of our dependence, much less reducing it.

But OPEC won't double their capacity tomorrow, so thats just conjecture.

I agree with issue 2 and that there are zero fixes to this problem short term. OPEC is pumping about full out. They might be able to expand some here and there long-term with more drilling and tanker loading stations, but as of now the spigots are wide open. They are pumping 28 million barrels per day. Since September of last year they made available all spare capacity and have been there since.
 
B

Bruzilla

Guest
dck4shrt said:
I don't believe that OPEC is controlling prices. How do you suppose they are doing that? They are producing at/near capacity. It's not like they've turned off the wells. Look at their production figures.

Sorry, but some group is calling the shots. I refuse to believe that the fact that an imminent threat of government action, however misguided it may be, stopped and reversed lengthy trends of price increases is just some coincidence.

I agree that windfall taxes do nothing to help consumers, but they sure seem to scare the pants off the oil companies. Rush was saying last week that these taxes would result in higher gas prices as the oil companies would hold back supplies until the taxes went away. But I'm thinking that the oil companies, especially their leadership, are very focused on profits and price per share of their stock. Windfall taxes, and restricting sales, would be very damaging to their stock value and their personal net worth, so they have now twice been able to get gas/oil prices down after months of saying "there's nothing we can do."

As for some vast conspiracy, I think that's about all OPEC and the oil companies are. They know we have to buy their product since there's no substitute, so they are free to do whatever they want. How many other businesses in the US are free to charge "market value" for a product regardless of its source? Locally produced electricity costs less than electricity bought and moved to the local area; a bottle of Californa white wine is cheaper than authentic French champagne; cigars rolled in Tampa are a lot cheaper than genuine Cubans; locally grown produce costs less than stuff brough in from far away; etc, etc. If oil were treated like everything else, you would see gas much cheaper at stations that use domestic oil, a but higher stations that use non-threatened oil (Venezuela, Great Britain, etc.) and much higher prices at stations that rely on Middle Eastern oil due to shipping costs and risk to sources. Yet we allow oil companies to charge us the same amount regardless of the source, cost, or risk. If we don't tolerate that kind of pricing from anyone else, why should we tolerate it from them?
 

dck4shrt

New Member
Bruzilla said:
Sorry, but some group is calling the shots. I refuse to believe that the fact that an imminent threat of government action, however misguided it may be, stopped and reversed lengthy trends of price increases is just some coincidence.

I agree that windfall taxes do nothing to help consumers, but they sure seem to scare the pants off the oil companies. Rush was saying last week that these taxes would result in higher gas prices as the oil companies would hold back supplies until the taxes went away. But I'm thinking that the oil companies, especially their leadership, are very focused on profits and price per share of their stock. Windfall taxes, and restricting sales, would be very damaging to their stock value and their personal net worth, so they have now twice been able to get gas/oil prices down after months of saying "there's nothing we can do."

As for some vast conspiracy, I think that's about all OPEC and the oil companies are. They know we have to buy their product since there's no substitute, so they are free to do whatever they want. How many other businesses in the US are free to charge "market value" for a product regardless of its source? Locally produced electricity costs less than electricity bought and moved to the local area; a bottle of Californa white wine is cheaper than authentic French champagne; cigars rolled in Tampa are a lot cheaper than genuine Cubans; locally grown produce costs less than stuff brough in from far away; etc, etc. If oil were treated like everything else, you would see gas much cheaper at stations that use domestic oil, a but higher stations that use non-threatened oil (Venezuela, Great Britain, etc.) and much higher prices at stations that rely on Middle Eastern oil due to shipping costs and risk to sources. Yet we allow oil companies to charge us the same amount regardless of the source, cost, or risk. If we don't tolerate that kind of pricing from anyone else, why should we tolerate it from them?

That wouldn't work for a second. Oil pumped here and there does not significantly change the price unless it is different quality like Iranian Sour, Basra Sweet, Nigerian Light Sweet, West Texas, etc (different sulfur contents and refining capabilities). If you broke up all of the integrated oil companies into their component parts or little entitites that only do business in say, west Texas, or another company that does business in Saudi oil, or Nigerian oil, etc, the price would be far far higher than it is today. Each company would need its own set of drilling rigs, transportation details (pipelines, tankers, trucks), refineries, etc, etc. Oil procurement is a biz that requires tremendous investment, and that's why you hear about this 9 cent/gallon profit margin blah blah. No one ever says that to get that $11 billion in profit, the largest in US corporate history, Exxon had to invest over $100 billion in research/development/capital ex spending, which is also the largest amount spent in US corporate history. Companies like Exxon-Mobil don't even bother with oil fields that are less than 50,000,000 barrels (=2 days of US consumption, 8 days of world consumption) because the cost of building rigs, getting people in place, transporting it out of there, and everything else isn't even worth their time. Smaller companies are popping up that are specialized in recovery for these small finds, but it remains to be seen if they can make a go of it (no evidence thus far, although with oil prices at $70 it probably makes some of it feasible).

Saying that oil companies can bring the price of oil down on an open market without providing an explanation or evidence isn't helping me out in rationalizing your argument.

The thing is when you say that someone is calling the shots, the fact is that we are calling the shots. Each and every time an H2, Suburban, F-250 with a spoiler on the back, Armada, Excursion, Expedition, Escalade, etc, pulls up to the pump we are calling the shots with our dollars telling those oil entities to bring it on.

And, why would gas at stations who's source is domestic/stable be cheaper? If everyone ran to those stations and bought there, the price would go up, and everyone would say screw those Saudis, I'm not buying their oil, and the price there would go down, and eventually the price would be about equal across the board.
 
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FromTexas

This Space for Rent
British Inventor Unveils 8000 MPG Car

May 12, 2006 2:18 p.m. EST


Julie Farby - All Headline News Staff Writer

London, England (AHN)—A British inventor unveils the world's most fuel-efficient vehicle, a three-wheel “TeamGreen” car capable of doing 8,000 miles to the gallon.

The new story...


Problem solved! :biggrin:
 

ylexot

Super Genius
I saw another article on this a few days ago where the designer said that the key was low weight...motorcycles anyone? :yay:
 
R

residentofcre

Guest
It's supply and demand.... Motorcycles, motorscooters.... and a shift in traffic flow all get my vote.

We throw away money sitting in traffic jams .... I already started a highway www thread.... If we could get 20% of the traffic off the roads it would help.

We're addicted to the gas can and the clock... it's time we started thinking in terms of the 21st century and beyond... We need to travel at the speed of light. We need to get beyond the combustion engine and sundial....

Our nation has been to the moon... why can't we get past this worker ant mentality?

:coffee:
 
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