It depends on the Wings injuries. If healthy Wings win.
Red Wings fans already have their built-in excuse loaded and ready for if their team loses. Well, that and The Grand Conspiracy, of course.
That said, I think the Penguins are capable of beating the Wings if both teams were completely healthy. The Penguins were *that* close to forcing a game 7 last year, after basically giving the Wings the first two games. This Penguins team is deeper, better, well conditioned, and much more experienced than last year's. Bylsma has them playing more agressively on offense, while maintaining Therien's defensive scheme that got them to the finals last year.
Should be a great series. I'm going to pick the Penguins in 7, but they could wrap it up in 6 if the Wings are as injured as it appears. I wouldn't at all be surprised if Detroit takes it, but I just don't feel they'll get it done against this determined (on many levels) Pittsburgh team.